In case you haven’t heard of Wayne Winston, here’s a brief introduction, courtesy of TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott:
“Wayne Winston is a professor at Indiana University and for nine years was Mark Cuban’s stat guru for the Dallas Mavericks. Winston’s book “Mathletics” explains much of his work — complete with formulas and spreadsheets.”
A quick summary of the Adjusted +/- ratings:
“A points rating of say +21 means that after adjusting for the players a player has played with and against the player in our estimation has added 21 points more per 48 minutes than an average NBA player to his team’s performance level. A +10 offense rating means that the player has added 10 points more per 48 minutes to his team’s scoring than an average NBA offensive player . A -10 defense rating means a player has decreased the opponent’scoring by 10 points per 48 minutes more than an average NBA defensive player.”
Rose had a points rating of 13 and trails only LeBron James (19) and Kevin Garnett (14) among Eastern Conference players.
According to Winston, Rose has an offensive rating of 11 and a defensive rating of -2. Interestingly enough, his defensive rating is better than those of Dwyane Wade (9) and Rajon Rondo (1), both of whom are generally considered better defenders than Rose. I’m just sayin’.
Now let’s talk about Winston’s impact score. Emphasis is Winston’s:
“Impact weights time segments more when the game is on the line. Anything over +30 is pretty good and over +50 is amazing. Note that Derrick Rose is not that great on many advanced stats but he shines on Impact!! So where is Dwight Howard. Dwight has a mediocre Impact rating of +5 so I left him off. More importantly, where is Kobe? Kobe has a negative adjusted +/- this year, so he cannot make this all star team. Kobe’s defensive rating is +6. With Kobe on the court Laker opponents shoot 49% and with Kobe off the court Laker opponents only shoot 44%. This is consistent with Kobe’s poor defensive rating.”
For the record, Rose’s impact score of 61 is by far tops in the East. His closest competition comes from LeBron (49), Devin Harris (48) and D-Wade (45). In the West, only Steve Nash (62) has had more impact this season. Meanwhile, Rose’s impact far surpasses that of guys like Chris Paul (50), Tim Duncan (47), Dirk Nowitzki (37), Kevin Durant (36) and Deron Williams (24).