Wayne Winston: Derrick Rose has impact

In case you haven’t heard of Wayne Winston, here’s a brief introduction, courtesy of TrueHoop’s Henry Abbott:

“Wayne Winston is a professor at Indiana University and for nine years was Mark Cuban’s stat guru for the Dallas Mavericks. Winston’s book “Mathletics” explains much of his work — complete with formulas and spreadsheets.”

Winston also has a blog. Yesterday, he announced his 2010-11 NBA All-Star selections. These selections were based on Winston’s Adjusted +/- ratings and impact ratings.

A quick summary of the Adjusted +/- ratings:

“A points rating of say +21 means that after adjusting for the players a player has played with and against the player in our estimation has added 21 points more per 48 minutes than an average NBA player to his team’s performance level. A +10 offense rating  means that the player has added 10 points more per 48 minutes to his team’s scoring than an average NBA offensive player . A -10 defense rating means a player has decreased the opponent’scoring by 10 points per 48 minutes more than an average NBA defensive player.”

Rose had a points rating of 13 and trails only LeBron James (19) and Kevin Garnett (14) among Eastern Conference players.

According to Winston, Rose has an offensive rating of 11 and a defensive rating of -2. Interestingly enough, his defensive rating is better than those of Dwyane Wade (9) and Rajon Rondo (1), both of whom are generally considered better defenders than Rose. I’m just sayin’.

Now let’s talk about Winston’s impact score. Emphasis is Winston’s:

“Impact weights time segments more when the game is on the line.  Anything over +30 is pretty good and over +50 is amazing. Note that Derrick Rose is not that great on many advanced stats but he shines on Impact!! So where is Dwight Howard. Dwight has a mediocre Impact rating of +5 so I left him off. More importantly, where is Kobe? Kobe has a negative adjusted +/- this year, so he cannot make this all star team. Kobe’s defensive rating is +6. With Kobe on the court Laker opponents shoot 49% and with Kobe off the court Laker opponents only shoot 44%.  This is consistent with Kobe’s poor defensive rating.”

For the record, Rose’s impact score of 61 is by far tops in the East. His closest competition comes from LeBron (49), Devin Harris (48) and D-Wade (45). In the West, only Steve Nash (62) has had more impact this season. Meanwhile, Rose’s impact far surpasses that of guys like Chris Paul (50), Tim Duncan (47), Dirk Nowitzki (37), Kevin Durant (36) and Deron Williams (24).

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4 Responses to Wayne Winston: Derrick Rose has impact

  1. gorditadog@aol.com'
    Gorditadog February 2, 2011 at 2:37 pm #

    Wayne Winston is a very smart man.

  2. doubleaccord@gmail.com'
    Tony C. February 2, 2011 at 2:52 pm #

    A stat such as “Impact Ratings” is an interesting concept, given the weighting on end-of-game importance. But it’s clearly limited, given, for example, that Turkoglu is rated as being vastly superior to Dwight Howard based on the metric.

    Now c’mon, everyone knows that Howard is something of a liability on the free-throw line, but his defensive presence in the lane is, by a wide margin, more intimidating than that of any other player in basketball. And that, in and of itself, brings great value to crunch-time that these type of advanced stats simply do not take into account.

    Having said that, Winston must be doing something right, as it is nice to see Rose and the likes of Jamaal Crawford getting props for their late-game value.

  3. reggiemcglory@yahoo.com'
    chitown4life February 2, 2011 at 3:28 pm #

    I have said this from the start of the season when rose said why can’t I be the MVP.He has played himself right into that positin as it stands today now he is finally getting all the respect for what he does on the court league wide.D rose if the votes stopped today should win the MVP with the record they have and the players they missed during the tme of the record Rose has been the mainstay of the team him and Deng and T gibs and yes the big play of big sexy this year must give Kurt thomas some due credits, but D Rose has been the one, who mainly has been the key for them winning most of there games thus far. He has my vote for the MVP. Go BULLS… Peace

  4. doubleaccord@gmail.com'
    Tony C. February 2, 2011 at 6:22 pm #

    I should also point out that Matt could have entitled the post:

    “Winnie Supports Pooh”

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