With Derrick Rose’s meniscus injury, a team that seemed destined for a spot atop the Eastern Conference is now full of question marks.  For the second straight season, the Bulls will have to figure out how to go on without their superstar.

There are a lot of theories out there about what they should do off the court.  For instance, some believe they should try to do what the Spurs did in the 1996-1997 season when David Robinson played only six games and try to get themselves in the lottery for one of the most stacked draft classes in history.  Others think it may be worthwhile to move Luol Deng and get under the cap in order to avoid exceeding the threshold of the repeater tax.  These may not be bad ideas, but I will not be covering either of those strategies here, but rather I will take a look at the problems the Bulls may face on the court without Rose as the roster stands today.

We’ll start on the defensive side of the ball where there should be very few problems.  As mentioned by Matt Moore on early Sunday morning, the Bulls should not have any problems on this side of the ball.  Thus far, the Bulls have given up 100.6 points per possession with Rose on the floor and just 84.8 with him off of it.  Admittedly, this season represents a very small sample size, but there is still little evidence that would suggest the Bulls will struggle defensively without Rose.

Offensively, though, the Bulls may have some problems.  This may be somewhat surprising considering the Bulls did well enough offensively last season to earn the 4^th playoff spot in the Eastern Conference and win their first round playoff series against the Brooklyn Nets, but significant changes have been made to a roster that finished 29^th in points scored per game and 23^rd in offensive rating last season.

With Rose’s return, the Bulls decided to fill out their roster with players that complimented his skills as a playmaker better than last year’s roster.  With less playmaking needed, the Bulls decided to replace Marco Belinelli’s production with free agent Mike Dunleavy Jr. and Nate Robinson’s production from within by promoting Marquis Teague to backup point guard.

This lack of competent playmakers will be the Bulls’ biggest problem going forward.  Through ten games this season, Rose had compiled a 29.4 % usage rate, which was good enough for fifth in the NBA.  In Rose’s absence, the Bulls will need to find players to step up and start using more possessions.

A lot has been made about Dunleavy’s inability to make plays off the dribble, but the numbers just don’t support that.  It is true that Dunleavy’s usage rate this season is only at 14% compared to Belinelli’s 18.7% last season, but Dunleavy is certainly capable of more.  For their careers, Dunleavy and Belinelli’s usage rates are nearly identical with Dunleavy at 19.1% and Belinelli at 19.4%.  Now, it is certainly necessary to also mention Dunleavy’s advancing age, but in his last two years in Milwaukee, Dunleavy was in a dribble-heavy system in which he was expected to do a good amount of playmaking with a usage rate of 19% two seasons ago and 17.3% last season.  Though Dunleavy doesn’t attack the basket with the same vigor as Belinelli, the threat of his shot makes him a creative player when he puts the ball on the floor and attacks the basket.

The major problem will be how the Bulls will attempt to fill the shoes of the departed Nate Robinson.  For all of Robinson’s shortcomings, the one thing he really excels at is using a high number of possessions.  Last season, Robinson posted a usage rate of 25.1%.  He wasn’t the most efficient player, but Robinson did a pretty decent job of putting points on the board and giving the Bulls great energy each time he came on the floor.

Without Robinson to take over offensively, the Bulls will need a few players to step up and start contributing a bit more on the offensive end.  One might think that Joakim Noah may be a player to lean on for more offensively with a usage rate of 15.6%, but last season his usage rate only rose to 17.2%.  Though Noah may be a talented player, he has never been the type to force anything on the offensive end.

The two players to keep an eye on in the coming weeks as far as increased usage is concerned are Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler.  Gibson’s usage rate has already increased a bit this season (up to 20.3% from 18.1%) and he has been relatively more effective offensively thus far.  Butler is quite possibly the most interesting candidate to step up in Rose’s absence as many had expected a breakout season from him.  Even with Rose around, Butler’s usage rate had already increased from 14.6% to 16% and it may increase even more once he returns.  It’s a lot to ask from a young player, but Butler may have to take on an increased offensive role for this Bulls team to stay afloat offensively when he returns from injury.

No matter who the Bulls rely on in Rose’s absence, it will be considerably different than last season and Bulls fans will need to remain patient.  The Bulls will be completely retooling their offense during the regular season with limited practice time.  It’s not going to be pretty at times, but it will give a few players opportunities they wouldn’t have been given with a healthy Rose.

The post What’s the Usage? appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

With a player like Derrick Rose it’s reasonable to expect greatness out of the gate; even after taking a year off it’s human nature to expect that an athlete like him could return to peak form just as easily as he left it. We all respected his decision to protect his long term health in favor of the Bulls’ short term success because we all assumed that his return, while taking a bit to adjust, would be ferocious. His preseason dominance seemed to be a sign that Chicago’s prodigal son had returned to form but his regular season struggles are only just a small part of an even bigger problem with the Bulls offense.

Rose obviously isn’t himself; he’s hesitant, avoiding contact and just quite frankly is not the Derrick Rose we all know and love. Among all players with a usage percentage over 25, Derrick Rose has the 2nd worse true shooting percentage in the league — only Kemba Walker has been more inefficient. His free throw rate is also the worst it’s been since his rookie year and according to the NBA’s new player tracking site he’s only shooting 41% on drives. Rose has certainly earned the benefit of the doubt and will continue to receive it from Bulls fans but its something that has to be noted.

Now this could all be a manifestation of rust which would be very reasonable but it’s still concerning. It’s only been 6 games and Derrick Rose’s PER won’t be 6.6 all season, he’ll start getting to the line and looking somewhat like the Derrick Rose of old but at what point do we start worrying about the team’s play?  For a team that was proclaimed to not only an equal to last year’s central division champs but maybe even better than the Pacers, the Bulls have been quite underwhelming.

The undefeated Pacers have shown virtually no weaknesses to this point are starting to distinguish themselves from the rest of the division. Tonight, whether or not Derrick suits up, will be a good barometer to measure what needs to be changed in the Bulls approach. As a team the Bulls are scoring a paltry 97 points per 100 possessions, a mark which has is the 7th worst in the league so the weight and responsibility of improvement is not solely on Rose.

Jimmy Butler, who fans thought would be great compliment to Derrick Rose, hasn’t managed to reclaim his outstanding efficiency. The two man combo of Rose/Butler has been less than stellar and only managed a meager +0.7 net rating this season. So they haven’t been bad together but they definitely have not lived up to the expectations.

Luol Deng can also be held accountable for some of the struggles. Shooting just about 13%(yes- you read that correctly) from deep, Deng deserves some of the blame that is being tossed around for this team’s less than mediocre offense. He’s shooting 10% on catch-and-shoot 3pt shots (again- you read that correctly). There’s definitely some room for improvement in Deng’s game this season.

I say all of this with the hope and expectations that things will even out in the long run. The Bulls are still 4-3 and there’s still many games to be played but some trends need to be ironed out before they lose sight of their lofty aspirations.

The post Offensive Struggles for the Chicago Bulls and the Need to Improve appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

The Bulls have the best record in the league — again — and here’s a snapshot of how they’re doing it.

Record: 12-2 (NBA best)
Hollinger Power Ranking: 110.575 (2nd)
Division: 2-0
Conference: 7-1
Home Record: 5-0
Road Record: 7-2
Streak: Won 5
Last game: 77-64 win over Toronto
Margin of Victory: 10.29
Strength of Schedule: -2.00 (23rd)
PPG: 94.1 (17th)
Opponents PPG: 83.8 (1st)
Offensive Rating: 105.9 (8th)
Defensive Rating: 94.3 (2nd)
Pace: 88.9 (26th)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: .483 (13th)
Turnover Percentage: .138 (12th)
Defensive Rebound Percentage: .760 (5th)
Offensive Rebound Percentage: .325 (1st)
Free Throws Per Field Goal Attempt: .194 (21st)
Opp. eFG%: .443 (2nd)
Opp. TO%:  .135 (21st)
Opp. FT/FGA: .162 (1st)
Leading scorer: Derrick Rose (20.8)
Leading Rebounder: Carlos Boozer (8.3)
Assist Leader: Derrick Rose (8.7)

Stats from Basketball-Reference

Injury Report:
Rip Hamilton: Strained groin. Doubtful for today’s game.
C.J. Watson: Dislocated left elbow. Questionable for today’s game.

The post Chicago Bulls Status Check appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Kurt Thomas: 63.6%
Kyle Korver: 56.0%
Joakim Noah: 43.9%
Luol Deng: 39.0%
Taj Gibson: 38.5%
Carlos Boozer: 37.5%
Derrick Rose: 35.2%
Ronnie Brewer: 33.3%
C.J. Watson: 33.3%
Keith Bogans: 30.8%
Omer Asik: 0.0%

As a team, the Bulls rank 15th out of 16 teams in FGP at 39.8 percent. The Knicks, who got swept by the Celtics yesterday, rank 16th at 38.6 percent.

Oh, and if you prefer to go by advanced metrics, the Bulls rank 16th in eFG% at 43.4 percent.

If the Bulls don’t start getting better shots and remember how to knock them down, this is going to be a short playoff run. And a huge waste of a fantastic regular season.

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Bulls bench:
Kyle Korver (+5)
C.J. Watson (-3)
Omer Asik (-3)
Taj Gibson (-4)
Kurt Thomas (-7)
Ronnie Brewer (-14)

Pacers starters:
Darren Collison (+6)
Tyler Hansbrough (-6)
Paul George (-11)
Danny Granger (-12)
Roy Hibbert (-16)

Pacers bench:
Jeff Foster (+12)
Mike Dunleavy Jr. (+9)
T.J. Ford (+7)
Brandon Rush (0)
Josh McRoberts (-2)
A.J. Price (-17)

As you can see, the Bulls outscored the Pacers by double digits when their top four players were in the game. Conversly, Indy was outscored by double digits with three of their starters on the floor (George, Granger, Hibbert).

What jumps out at me is that the Pacers got good plus-minus production from some of their reserves (Dunleavy, Ford, Foster) while the Bulls bench underperformed by their standards (especially Brewer).

I don’t mean to oversimplify things. However, one of the defining characteristics of this year’s squad was that the Bench Mob was typically able to come in a really put the squeeze (particularly defensively) on the other team.

That didn’t happen last night.

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Derrick Rose’s highlight block from the Raptors game generated some interesting discussion. By The Horns reader Antz noticed that Rose has more blocked shots on the season (48) than LeBron James (46). While I was double-checking that stat, I also noted that Rose has more offensive rebounds (78) than LeBron (77).

I found these numbers kind of fascinating considering that LeBron is well-known for his chase-down blocks and overall rebounding ability. Rose obviously isn’t in position to snare as many defensive boards as LeBron, but the fact that he’s grabbed more offensive boards says something about the effort he’s been giving this season.

In fact, get this, Rose has has 30 more offensive rebounds than Dirk Nowitzki (47). Dirk’s a seven-footer, by the way. Rose also has more offensive boards than the 6’9″ Kevin Durant (54) and almost as many as the 6’11″ Kevin Garnett (80). And Rose is a better offensive rebounder than a whole bunch of small forwards.

Getting back to the blocked shot thing, Rose is the leader in blocked shots among point guards by a country mile. Shaun Livingston is in second place with 29. Rose has more blocked shots than several power forwards and centers, too.

The post A couple interesting stats appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

“Wayne Winston is a professor at Indiana University and for nine years was Mark Cuban’s stat guru for the Dallas Mavericks. Winston’s book “Mathletics” explains much of his work — complete with formulas and spreadsheets.”

Winston also has a blog. Yesterday, he announced his 2010-11 NBA All-Star selections. These selections were based on Winston’s Adjusted +/- ratings and impact ratings.

A quick summary of the Adjusted +/- ratings:

“A points rating of say +21 means that after adjusting for the players a player has played with and against the player in our estimation has added 21 points more per 48 minutes than an average NBA player to his team’s performance level. A +10 offense rating  means that the player has added 10 points more per 48 minutes to his team’s scoring than an average NBA offensive player . A -10 defense rating means a player has decreased the opponent’scoring by 10 points per 48 minutes more than an average NBA defensive player.”

Rose had a points rating of 13 and trails only LeBron James (19) and Kevin Garnett (14) among Eastern Conference players.

According to Winston, Rose has an offensive rating of 11 and a defensive rating of -2. Interestingly enough, his defensive rating is better than those of Dwyane Wade (9) and Rajon Rondo (1), both of whom are generally considered better defenders than Rose. I’m just sayin’.

Now let’s talk about Winston’s impact score. Emphasis is Winston’s:

“Impact weights time segments more when the game is on the line.  Anything over +30 is pretty good and over +50 is amazing. Note that Derrick Rose is not that great on many advanced stats but he shines on Impact!! So where is Dwight Howard. Dwight has a mediocre Impact rating of +5 so I left him off. More importantly, where is Kobe? Kobe has a negative adjusted +/- this year, so he cannot make this all star team. Kobe’s defensive rating is +6. With Kobe on the court Laker opponents shoot 49% and with Kobe off the court Laker opponents only shoot 44%.  This is consistent with Kobe’s poor defensive rating.”

For the record, Rose’s impact score of 61 is by far tops in the East. His closest competition comes from LeBron (49), Devin Harris (48) and D-Wade (45). In the West, only Steve Nash (62) has had more impact this season. Meanwhile, Rose’s impact far surpasses that of guys like Chris Paul (50), Tim Duncan (47), Dirk Nowitzki (37), Kevin Durant (36) and Deron Williams (24).

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In doing so, Johnson cited Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau, who said: ”He’s always found a way either to start or be in the rotation for very good teams. If he’s guarding you, you know he’s guarding you. He’s going to make you work. He’s a physical player. He’s been shooting the 3 well. That’s critical for us. Keith gives you toughness. That’s important in this league. It’s a big part of being a good defensive team. And he does his job every day. Every day.”

I get what Johnson and Thibs are saying, and I agree that PPG isn’t the best measure of a player’s worth. Still, out of curiosity, I went to Basketball-Reference and used the Play Index to compare the advanced statistics of all NBA guards who have started at least 35 games this season. Here are Bogans’ stats and rankings out of the 46 guards who qualified:

Player Efficiency Rating: 7.1 (46th)
True Shooting Percentage: .510 (42nd)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: .500 (26th)
Offensive Rebound Percentage: 1.6 (33rd)
Defensive Rebound Percentage: 10.2 (18th)
Total Rebound Percentage: 6.1 (23rd)
Assist Percentage: 9.5 (41st)
Steal Percentage: 1.3 (38th)
Block Percentage: 0.5 (19th)
Turnover Percentage: 12.7 (20th)
Usage Percentage: 10.4 (45th)
Offensive Rating: 104 (41st)
Defensive Rating: 103 (7th)
Offensive Win Shares: 0.3 (44th)
Defensive Win Shares: 1.3 (21st)
Total Win Shares: 1.6 (43rd)
Win Shares Per 48 Minutes: 0.092 (34th)

For the heck of it, here are his shooting stats among the 46 qualifying guards:

Field Goal Percentage: 38.1 (44th)
Three-point Percentage: 33.6 (34th)
Free Throw Percentage: 59.1 (45th)

Most notable, I suppose, are the shooting stats, which reveal that Bogans is one of the worst shooters among starting guards, and his dead-last ranking in PER, which provides a general measure of efficiency and productivity.

He’s good at defense, though, hence the seventh-place ranking in Defensive Rating. Interestingly enough, Derrick Rose ranks fourth in that area (just behind Chris Paul, Rajon Rondo and Dwyane Wade) despite his ongoing (and possibly undeserved) reputation as a bad (at worst) to average (at best) defender. For the record, Rose also ranks second (behind Paul and just ahead of Wade and Rondo) among these 46 starting guards in Defensive Win Shares.

But, hey, what do advanced stats mean, anyway?

D-Ratings, Defensive Win Shares and even possession-specific data from Synergy Sports Technology aren’t admissible if you choose to disregard them. And, as Jake in Minnie pointed out in yesterday’s comments, PER certainly has its fair share of flaws, which sheds at least some doubt on the importance of Bogans’ poor rating in that area.

So, at least for now,  as much as some Bulls fans my not like it (and many of us do not), Thibs is going by the most basic statistics of all: wins and losses.

The post An advanced look at Keith Bogans appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Still, what happens in the preseason can sometimes hint at what to expect in the early part of the regular season. And here’s what happened during the Bulls’ preseason:

Scoring, rebounding and ball handling were problems:
Chicago averaged only 95.8 PPG while shooting 44.6 percent from the field and 36.6 percent from beyond the arc.

The team’s 2009-10 averages: 97.5 PPG, 45.1 and 33.0.

Furthermore, the Bulls were outrebounded by a slim margin (40.4 RPG to 39.9 RPG) and turned the ball over. A lot (17.4 TOs per game).

Of course, team stats in the preseason are deceiving because the bench gets a lot more PT than usual. I mean, does anybody really expect Brian Scalabrine to average 20 MPG once the regular season starts?

Of course not.

Additionally, the Bulls have nine new players and a new coaching staff. As if the personnel turnover wasn’t enough, the team’s best new player — Carlos Boozer — played exactly zero preseason minutes. What’s more, C.J. Watson, Joakim Noah, Kyle Korver, Ronnie Brewer and Taj Gibson all missed games due to minor injury or illness.

Under those circumstances, it would have been silly to expect too much from eight relatively meaningless games.

Still, the numbers may be a sign that the chemistry and continuity aren’t quite there.

But not all was doom and gloom:
By and large, the Bulls were unselfish with the ball, compiling 181 assists on 274 field goals. That means that 66 percent of the team’s made shots were assisted. For comparison’s sake, the 2009-10 Utah Jazz led the league in assist ratio, and 67 percent of their buckets were assisted.

Furthermore, the defense was reasonably strong, holding opponents to 94.6 PPG on 45 percent shooting from the field and 30 percent from the land of three. The Bulls also averaged 7.9 SPG and 5.6 BPG.

Derrick Rose shot poorly:
Over the summer, there was a lot of buzz about Rose’s improved jumper and how he had been working on his three-point shooting. It didn’t show during the preseason. Rose hit 43.4 percent of his field goals and went 5-for-21 from downtown (23.8 percent).

This probably isn’t a huge deal. However, Rose is the foundation of this team on offense. And since he tends to be more of a shoot-first point guard, the consistency and reliability of his shooting is paramount.

Joakim Noah was Joakim Noah:
Other than missing two games with flu-like symptoms, Noah had a very Noah-like preseason: 10.8 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.8 BPG and 1.3 SPG in 28 minutes a night. His shooting was a little off (45.1 percent) and he turned the ball over (2.6 TOs per game), but he was second on the team with 4.2 APG.

Trust me, Jo’s going to be worth every penny of that $60 million contract extension.

Luol Deng may have been the team’s best player:
Deng had a strong preseason, averaging 16.0 PPG, 4.0 RPG, 1.8 APG and 1.1 SPG in 28 MPG. His shooting was even more impressive: 50.6 percent from the field and 51.7 percent on threes.

And how’s this for unexpected: Lu not only led the team in three-point field goal attempts — Deng launched 29 treys, with Keith Bogans coming in second at 20 attempts — he also finished first in free throw attempts (48 to Rose’s 39). For his game to improve, Deng needed to reduce his reliance on long-range twos (check), take more threes (check) and attack the rim (check).

This could be quite a season for Deng. Assuming he stays healthy.

Keith Bogans was better than expected:
Going into training camp, everybody figured it was a two-man race for the starting shooting guard spot. Those two men being Ronnie Brewer (the presumed starter) and Kyle Korver (the challenger). Only Bogans started all eight games. And although it may only have been because Brewer was injured, Bogans delivered by shooting 51.7 percent from the field and 50 percent from three-point range.

Bogans didn’t do a lot of scoring (5.5 PPG) or log a lot of time (16.8 MPG), but he was more consistent than Korver (43 percent from the field, 33 on threes) or Brewer (28 percent from the field, 0-for-1 on threes). Maybe I was wrong to sleep on Bogans.

C.J. Watson was worse than expected:
There were times during the preseason when coach Tom Thibodeau played Rose and Watson at the same time, and that could make the Bulls a terrifying transition team. But don’t get too excited about that prospect: I doubt we’ll see much of that tandem during the season.

Watson was brought in for two reasons: 1) to back up Rose at the point and 2) provide another shooter.

Regarding reason number one: Watson was looking to shoot (59 field goal attempts) more than he was looking to pass (22 assists). Plus, he had 16 turnovers to those 22 dimes.

Regarding reason number two: C.J. connected on only 32 percent of his shot attempts and went 4-for-16 from downtown (25 percent).

I’m willing to cut Watson some slack. After all, he came from Don Nelson’s gunslinger offense, and he now has to adjust to new teammates, a new coach, and a very new and different playing style.

Still…

Omer Asik made quick progress:
When the preseason began, Asik looked marshmallow soft. By the final preseason game, he looked a little more prepared to mix things up. In eight games — including four starts — Asik played 19.6 MPG and averaged 5.3 PPG, 6.9 RPG and 1.1 BPG while hitting nearly 52 percent of his shots. His free throw shooting (14-for-28) was an issue, but his effort was not.

I’m not saying Asik is ready to overtake veteran Kurt Thomas as the first center off the bench, but from what we saw in the preseason, Omer may be ready to contribute early on. Which will be necessary with Boozer out.

James Johnson may be ready:
JJ continues to be something of an enigma, but he did score 8.5 PPG off the bench while hitting 50 percent of his shots. And he showed some of his very first signs of basketball IQ.

Maybe I should give Brian Scalabrine a break:
After all, Scal made the absolute most of the minutes he was given, averaging 6.0 PPG on 56 percent shooting (including 43 percent on threes). Not bad for an end-of-the-bench guy.

The post A look at the Bulls’ preseason stats appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Go check it out. Seriously. Right now.

I’ll probably write more about this after I’ve had a chance to sift through the numbers. Kudos to the people at Synergy Sports. This is good stuff.

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