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The Chicago Bulls have four big men who seem capable of playing at a solidly above-average level on a consistent basis, if not quite a bit higher than that. Thus far, we have seen Joakim Noah and Pau Gasol starting games, Taj Gibson and Nikola Mirotic coming off the bench and Taj paired with both Noah and Gasol — usually at the end of the first/third quarters and in the middle of the second/fourth, respectively. But I’m guessing you pretty much knew all that.

There are some definite advantages to the current big man rotation. Noah and Gasol are excellent passers and they can make beautiful music together at times. Mirotic’s shooting opens up the lane for Taj, both in the post and as a finisher in the pick and roll. But it’s easy to look at the current situation and think it could be improved.

To wit: Nikola Mirotic should be starting in Pau Gasol’s place. You heard me.

For the record, this has much less to do with Pau and much more to do with Mirotic and how he fits with the rest of the starters. Watching last night’s game against the Detroit Pistons, the Bulls bench went on a tear offensively in the second quarter, and their spacing was impeccable. Mirotic did essentially nothing in five minutes (one steal, one block, one foul and nothing else) but his mere presence — along with Doug McDermott’s and Kirk Hinrich’s — opened things up for Aaron Brooks and Taj Gibson.

We’ve all seen what Aaron Brooks has done leading the bench. We’ve seen what Derrick Rose can do with the starters as they are. Now imagine that we gave Rose the same spacing to work with as Brooks as had. Wouldn’t that be great? Spacing is especially important when Noah’s on the floor, because teams don’t really guard him when he doesn’t have the ball outside of 8 feet or so.

Pairing Mirotic with Noah also helps Noah because it means he can go back to guarding centers and staying closer to the rim instead of chasing power forwards around, which might also help the Bulls’ defensive rebounding woes — though said woes admittedly weren’t really on display last night. Pau and Noah isn’t too awkward offensively, but it is defensively, and Mirotic would help there.

Meanwhile, Pau and Taj started together while Noah was out for a couple of games over the past two weeks and did well with each other. Both can post up, and Pau’s ability to play in the high post meshes well with Taj’s skillset. Both can step out and hit from midrange. Most importantly, playing with Pau keeps Taj from having to bang with bigger centers inside, while playing with Taj keeps Pau from having to chase quicker power forwards.

Obviously, you’d probably still finish games with Noah and Pau or Noah and Taj, though I’m personally of the opinion that Thibs should go offense/defense with the Spanish combo (Pau/Mirotic) and the New York combo (Noah/Taj). But if Mirotic opens things up for Rose and the starters as much as I think he would — and if Pau/Taj wreak as much havoc against opposing bench units as I think they would — maybe crunch time wouldn’t even really be a thing.

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Player:

Taj Gibson

Per Game Stats:

82 games played, 28.7 minutes, 13.9 points on .479 shooting, 6.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.8 turnovers, .5 steals and 1.4 blocks.

The Good:

After Joakim Noah, the brightest part of the Chicago Bulls’ season was the breakout offensively by Taj Gibson. Any questions as to whether Gibson could score enough points to justify his contract were laid to rest.

Gibson vastly improved his low-post game. In the 2012-13 season, per Synergy (account required), Gibson recorded 37 field goals on post-up plays. This year he had 110.

He also showed a massive improvement in his jump shot, elevating his average points per play form .61 points per play to .95, slightly better than Serge Ibaka’s .92.

And Ibaka-lite isn’t a bad comparison here. Gibson’s per-36 numbers aren’t that far off (16.4 points, 8.5 rebounds to 16.6 points and 9.6 rebounds) from the Oklahoma City Thunder’s star. That’s not to say Gibson is Ibaka’s equal, but he’s in the same league. Both are now capable third-scoring options and elite defenders.

Only, Gibson is doing it for $4 million a year less. Point being: He’s assuredly validated the contract he signed and established that he can start.

He also averaged 18.2 points on .561 shooting in the playoffs and had the best PER on the Bulls with 26.5. That makes him the only player in Chicago’s history other than Jordan to record a playoff PER over 25 (minimum 100 minutes). Yes, it’s super, super small sample size, but the idea of a starting power forward next year who actually elevates his game in the postseason is absolute honey compared to the last four years.

Gibson’s numbers were better as a starter too.  He averaged 19.3 points and 9.8 boards in eight starts. He’s probably not going to give you a 20/10 season, but 16/8 is feasible. At $8.5 million a year, that’s high-value contract, especially when you factor in his All-Defensive caliber play on the opposite end of the court.

The Bad:

There were occasional disappearing acts by Gibson. To the naked eye, it looked like Gibson played through some unannounced injuries which impacted his play.

But, that combined with his struggles when double-teamed, suggest he can’t be more than a third option unless his game takes another bump. His offensive game elevated to above average, but not elite. The enthusiasm for his boost should be tempered with the understanding that it’s probably close to peaked at that.

The area he can still improve is in turnovers. Seventy of his 150 turnovers were ball-handling turnovers, per 82games.com. Another 35 were offensive fouls. Most of those 105 combined turnovers probably came from two things: traveling and falling for the same trick.

There were countless times where he got whistled for moving his pivot foot when going into his spin. That can be worked on, as it’s just a skill thing. The other is he fell for the “pull the chair out” trick numerous times when backing his defender down.

The only other negative on Gibson was his defensive rebounding isn’t on par with Carlos Boozer’s. To a degree, it’s because they have different jobs on defense. Boozer is supposed to stand and wait for missed shots because he’s useless doing anything else, while Gibson is frequently stepping out and trying to guard wings at the perimeter.

Still the difference is pretty dramatic. Boozer’s 8.3 defensive boards per 36 minutes dwarves Gibson’s 5.5. Gibson will have to improve on that if he’s the starting power forward next season.

Grade: A 

Future:

Gibson will be the Bulls’ starting power forward next year unless they trade for Kevin Love or sign Pau Gasol in free agency. If he’s a starter he’s a borderline All-Star (his numbers already compare with David West and aren’t far off Paul Millsap).

At $8.5 million a year that’s a high-value contract and in today’s NBA, you don’t just need stars, you need high-value players who can out-perform their contracts. Gibson looks like he’ll be doing that, whether as a starter, or as a perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate.

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It can easily be argued that the Chicago Bulls are out of the playoffs, having lost their series with the Washington Wizards 4-1, because of Tom Thibodeau’s stubbornness, and his seeming refusal to make any significant adjustments.

I am not here to argue that point, though the Bulls got whooped with their starters on the floor in all five games and Thibs never seemed to even consider starting Taj Gibson. I am here to talk about why he stuck so doggedly with a clearly failing lineup.

The playoffs are, by their very nature, a high-profile exercise in Small Sample Size Theatre. Even a series that goes seven games only provides you with seven games worth of data. Those seven games then have to be weighed against the 82 games of data you’ve accumulated in the regular season. As a result, any adjustment you make runs the risk of being seen as a ridiculous overreaction in hindsight. You’d have to make the conscious decision to let a few games — we’ll say four, in Thibs’ case, though you could say three or two or one and I wouldn’t argue with you — override many games — 52 in Thibs’ case, since we’ll count from the beginning of 2014, when the Bulls turned their season around.

From January 1 through the end of the regular season, the Bulls’ starters (Kirk Hinrich, Jimmy Butler, Mike Dunleavy, Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah) were 5.2 points per 100 possessions better than their opponents. They allowed 92.7 points per 100, a ludicrous number that would’ve led the league by a country mile. That number has 37 games and 610 minutes behind it, so it seems like it should be a reliable indicator of how that lineup would perform in the playoffs.

Instead, in 74 minutes over 5 games, that same lineup allowed 110.9 points per 100, scored 89.2, and finished 21.8 points per 100 WORSE than its opponents. Stretched over a full season, even the Philadelphia 76ers would laugh at the sheer incompetence on display.

So, put yourself in Thibs’ position, though keep in mind that none of us have any idea if Thibs puts any stock whatsoever in lineup data: Going into game five, are you ready to throw out 37 games worth of data in your starters’ favor based on four games worth of data?

Another thing I feel I should point out: Boozer, great teammate though he is, is a human being with feelings and an ego. We don’t know how he might have reacted to seeing Taj Gibson start games for him. Remember how Boozer complained back in February about not playing in the fourth quarter? One of the things Thibs said in the aftermath of that incident was that everyone has to sacrifice. Taj is sacrificing not starting, so Boozer is sacrificing not finishing.

So now, imagine that you’re Thibs, and you have to tell Boozer that not only will he be sitting his ass firmly on the bench down the stretch, he won’t be starting either. And keep in mind that Boozer still thinks of himself as a premier player and that he knows he’ll likely be out on the free agent market this summer via the amnesty. How do you think he would react?

Do either of these arguments mean that Thibs definitely was right? No. And I want the record to show that I was firmly in the “Taj should be starting” camp as early as game three — though really it’s been since 2012 sometime, but that’s not the point — and I think it was a huge mistake to keep throwing Boozer out there over Taj (and Kirk Hinrich over DJ Augustin, to a lesser extent). But coaching is a hard job. Thibs did the best he could, it just didn’t work out. That’s hot it goes, sometimes, and let’s not pretend his players did him any favors.

Anyway, feel free to be upset. That was a terrible series to watch. Just remember that things aren’t always as simple as we’d like them to be.

The post On Tom Thibodeau’s playoff adjustments, or lack thereof appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

This was a familiar tale for the Chicago Bulls as yet again the defense couldn’t bail out shockingly poor offense.

Taj Gibson scored a career-high 32 points and it didn’t really matter – no other Bull scored more than 16 points. Gibson finished 13-16 from the field.

Chicago shot 35-78 from the floor including 4-19 from behind the three-point line as they failed to score more than 22 points in three of the four quarters.

Washington was once again dominant, flying out to a 14-0 lead, forcing the Bulls into an early timeout. Chicago failed to score on it’s first eight possessions, missing six shots and turning the ball over twice.

Turnovers were a theme for the night. Washington turned the ball over just six times all night, compared to 16 for the Bulls.

Trevor Ariza scored 30 points. In a playoff game. This really happened. He hit his first six three-point attempts and finished 10-18 from the floor.

Bradley Beal continued to be an issue running around screens set by Washington’s big men. John Wall was his usual self on the fastbreak.

The Wizards went up by 20 in the third quarter before the Bulls went on a run to make the game slightly interesting before the Wizards closed out the game.

Carlos Boozer became a foul machine in the third quarter – collecting five fouls in just 3:30 before collecting his usual zero fourth-quarter minutes.

The Bulls now must head home for a win-or-bust Game 5. Despite the Bulls well-known resilience and will to win, there is no way to fix a simple lack of offensive talent.

Taj Gibson can score a career-high in game five, but if the team cannot reliably score for 48 minutes, the Wizards will once again come out on top.

Performances like tonight’s do little to quell the growing rumors that the Bulls will pursue Carmelo Anthony this summer, and there is very little in the way of on-court evidence to show why they shouldn’t.

Top Performers

Washington Wizards
Trevor Ariza: 30 points, 10-18 FGS, 6-10 3FGS
Bradley Beal: 18 points, 7-13 FGS, 5 rebounds
Marcin Gortat: 17 points, 6-17 FGS, 6 rebounds

Chicago Bulls
Taj Gibson: 32 points, 13-16 FGS, 7 rebounds
Jimmy Butler: 16 points, 5-14 FGS, 2-7 3FGS
Joakim Noah: 10 points, 4-9 FGS, 15 rebounds

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Among the most prevalent names circling the league before the annual award allocation are Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson. The linchpins of the Chicago Bulls’ defense have, in many ways, held the house that Jordan built just behind the levee that’s been tested periodically throughout the season. The league’s scariest front-line has played together less as of late, the exception being late-game closeout situations, but when they do, you notice.

There’s a good chance that when the devil of defense licked the league, his cloven tongue was one side Noah and one side Gibson. One could make the argument that Noah is in the running for two awards: Most Valuable Player and Defensive Player of the Year. One could make the argument that Gibson is up for two as well: Most Improved Player of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year. Regardless of how the league’s delegation resolves the accolades, the two have been special in 2014.

Joakim Noah is this season’s determined archetype – he’s fit for a Where Magic Happens playoff commercial already. There’s a good chance that if either of Noah’s forearms were to somehow disappear during a game, he’d cauterize the stump and run back to the court. Noah has acceded to the pinnacle of his position and has four triple-doubles (tied for league-best with Indiana’s Lance Stephenson) this season to prove it.

Taj Gibson has the length of a school bus and has extrapolated a notorious offensive game into the defensive guardian the Bulls have yearned for since drafting him in 2008. He’s never played more minutes per game than he is (28.6) and his 74% from the free-throw line is a career-high. His basketball IQ has made leaps and bounds, evident in his refined offensive post-moves and his defensive ability to switch onto wings and guards, a result of Thibodeau’s confidence in his switching abilities and maturation.

Furnished with parking meters for fists, the Noah-Gibson duo has been ransacking glass and discarding floaters all season. They’re buccaneers of the paint, and aren’t afraid of bashing in the post for rebounds or even just to send a message. For forwards and centers that have played in more than 70 games and average more than 20 minutes per night, the tandem holds two of the top eight spots in the league regarding opponent’s field goal percentage at the rim. No other team has more than one in the top ten. Neither allows more than 3.6 opponent-made field goals at the rim per night. For comparison: Roy Hibbert (Noah’s strongest competition for DPOY) gives up 4.1 per game.

In this sequence, Gibson is matched up on Drew Gooden and immediately recognizes the lane-crasher, steps up, and rejects the shot.

Although Serge Ibaka leads the league in blocked shots with a stunning 213, the Noah-Gibson pairing has put away 231. Both are rarely caught in the wrong position off pick-and-rolls, and while Noah has a far superior defensive acumen and inhuman timing is, Gibson complements his skillset with length, mobility, and precision. They’re the arms oaring Thibodeau’s defensive stronghold and have altered a season riddled with maladies into a no. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

Despite Joakim Noah taking an ill-advised shot, Gibson somehow manages to muscle his way in for the rebound and dunk.

More numbers: When Gibson and Noah are on-court, the two-man combination yields a +.032 field goal percentage (Chicago field goal percentage less the opposition field goal percentage), a team high. The two generate the most turnovers of any on the roster and their paint protection permeates to their teammates.

Using ESPN’s newly unveiled real plus/minus metric, Gibson holds the no. 8 spot on the power forward chart with a 4.50. Noah holds the top spot for centers with a 4.19. Only Chicago and Miami (Andersen, Bosh) can claim two players in the top ten that have played in more than 70 games. For players averaging at least 28 minutes per game, Gibson has the third-best defensive rpm (3.65). The only center that averages more minutes than Noah is the Clippers’ DeAndre Jordan, who sits fourteen spots beneath him on the defensive rpm chart.

In this sequence, Noah jumps the passing route of Paul George and in less than three seconds, tosses the ball down-court for a Jimmy Butler dunk on the other end.

As Grantland’s Zach Lowe points out, Noah’s defensive numbers this season have been staggering:

Noah on floor: 103.4 points per 100 possessions; 95.2 points allowed.

Noah on bench: 95.7 points per 100 possessions; 103.4 points allowed.

The league average for player efficiency is 15: Gibson has a 16.4 and Noah sits at 20.1. Per 36 minutes, their numbers are even more impressive. Noah is averaging a double-double with 11.4 points and 10.1 rebounds; Gibson is averaging a career-high 16.5 points and 8.6 rebounds per game.

Blame it on numbers and how the minutes the two accumulate nightly are the causation of the vagarious data, but since jettisoning Luol Deng to Cleveland for nothing of present value, the Bulls have gone 34-15. The Bulls give up just 91.8 points per game, the best in the league. When you’re defense is that strong, you can afford to play primitive offense, as the Bulls have done since losing Deng and Rose.

The pulse of the Chicago Bulls pounds from the paint, from those who were unwilling to accept 2014 as just another “wait till next year” season. Chalk it up to pride, but you’d be remiss to not consider Noah and Gibson as the primary reasons why the heart still beats.

The post The Two Towers appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

There’s a strange Groundhog Day-esque feeling that filters through the NBA in mid-late March as the season grinds inexorably closer to the Playoffs yet they never seem to get closer.

Saturday night was one of those games. The Bulls and Sixers met for the second time this week and, as in the first meeting, the Bulls let their much less talented counterparts hang around much longer than they should before closing the game out in the fourth quarter to win 91-81.

The game was effectively ended as a competition when Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and D.J. Augustin scored on consecutive possessions to open up a lead that let the air out of the Sixers.

Noah and Gibson pretty much had their way against Philadelphia, a team sorely lacking in NBA-calibre players especially in their heavily overmatched frontcourt.

Noah would finish with 20 points while shooting 6-10 on a variety of hooks and face up jumpers including a right-elbow fadeaway straight from the Dirk Nowitzki playbook.

Taj Gibson put forth another game to support his growing Sixth Man of the Year case, easing his way to 16 points, 10 rebounds and 4 blocks in 28 minutes of play.

Jimmy Butler played a rather unnecessary 45 minutes but broke out of his recent shooting slump, hitting half of his eight shots to go with his eight boards and six assists. His defense was critical in holding Carter-Williams at bay.

D.J. Augustin and Mike Dunleavy played well, punctuated by a another trio of threes for Augustin as part of his 16 points and a rare breakaway dunk for Dunleavy in the fourth quarter.

The Sixers have been open about their quest for a high draft pick and as such fielded a team largely comprised of fringe-quality players surrounding their core of rookie guard Michael Carter-Williams and Thad Young. Carter-Williams had a tough shooting night, hitting just three of his 14 shots. He did, however, pull down 11 rebounds and dish out six assists.

Thad Young seems to be the forgotten man in Philadelphia after he was not traded as the deadline came and went. The versatile forward led all scorers with 28 points, though harrying defense by Gibson and Noah meant he needed 26 shots to get there.

Another standout for Philadelphia was forward Henry Sims. Sims has had very little burn time in his NBA career but scored with 18 points combined with a game high 15 rebounds as the Bulls struggled to contain his energy.

The Sixers slid to 15-55 after their 24th consecutive defeat, the second-longest in league history behind the 2010-11 Cleveland Cavaliers’ 26-game skid.

The win moves the Bulls to 39-31, just percentage points behind the 38-30 Toronto Raptors, who play the shorthanded Atlanta Hawks in tomorrow’s early tip-off.

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