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The following is a question submitted for the “Weekly Mailbag.” Unfortunately my response was far too long and detailed to go in with the other mailbag questions so it was turned into it’s own post.

I saw on Avi’s Twitter he proposed the trade “Deng and Teague for Arron Afflalo and Jameer Nelson” but I’m not sure what to make of his proposal. Why trade Deng? Why would either side want to do the trade?
Mark B

The trade in question is the following:

A couple of notes about this trade. First, I used Marquis Teague as a place holder. He can be swapped out for a first round draft pick (and I expect he would be). Secondly, this trade will likely never happen. It’s just a pipe-dream I conjured up while idly sitting at my computer though it is a pipe-dream I really like. The reason I came up with this trade is mostly to get some sort of value on Luol Deng since I believe he’s as good as gone after this season is over and a financially strapped for cash team like Chicago needs to get a return on him. I’ve stated this and several other reasons while making my case as to why I believe the Bulls should trade Deng in a previous post.

On to why I think this trade would work for both teams (assuming the Bulls gave up a first round draft pick in place of Teague):

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Orlando–
Over the course of the past several months, there have been several rumors regarding the Orlando Magic wanting to trade Arron Afflalo and Jameer Nelson because neither player fits into the team’s long term rebuilding plan. By trading the two players to Chicago for Deng and a first round draft pick, the Magic accomplish two things: 1) they unload two players they seemingly don’t want to begin with; 2) They can potentially accelerate the rate at which the team rebuilds. The latter is the most important reason of the two. By trading for a draft pick, general manager Rob Hennigan can continue to utilize the Oklahoma City Thunder model of building a team through the draft. By trading for Deng’s expiring contract, the Magic free up roughly another $5-6 million in cap space (assuming Jameer Nelson’s option would not be picked up). This extra cash could help Orlando nab some players via free agency next offseason or give them some extra space to negotiate contract extensions.

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Chicago-
Note- The trade for Chicago is primarily to land Afflalo. Nelson was added in there to add incentive for the Magic to pull the trigger. For the most part, most of the analysis below focuses on Afflalo’s impact for Chicago.

Trading Deng for Afflalo would impact Chicago in three ways: it hurt the defense, would improve the offense, and help the team’s financial future.

Defensive Impact of the Trade

Chicago is a team renowned for their defense under coach Tom Thibodeau. For the past three seasons the team has sat near the top of the league in points allowed per game and are the defense has kept the team in games despite the team’s lack of offense. While I am personally a fan of the trade, there is one drawback to it (if it ever happened by some miracle)- Chicago would endure a slight defensive drop. Luol Deng has been a a great perimeter defender throughout his career and continues to be an impact player defensively for Chicago. With both Deng and Butler on the floor together, opposing offenses have struggled to get to the basket and average roughly just under 1 point per possession. With only Butler on the floor, that number jumps up slightly.

How big of an impact trading Deng would ultimately have on the defense is hard to say though. As explained in my argument to trade Deng over the summer (linked above), Butler’s numbers show that he can step into Deng’s role with ease and be almost as effective, if not more effective in some areas. However, most of drop-off relies on how well Affflalo would fit into the system. If Afflalo ended up integrating well into Thibodeau’s system, the loss of Deng would be mitigated significantly.

Offensive Impact of the Trade

Deng’s shot chart thus far

This season Luol Deng has endured some mighty struggles on offense. While he is averaging 16.9 points per game on 45% shooting (numbers in line with his career averages) he has been a big liability when shooting from beyond the arc. Thus far Deng has a three point shooting percentage of 19% (career average of 33%). While he should make improvement throughout the course of the season, if Deng doesn’t improve his long distance shooting drastically, this will mark the third strait season Deng’s three point shooting percentage has declined. In fact, a look at his shot chart shows that Deng has been wildly ineffective outside of the paint.

Afflalo’s shot chart thus far

In contrast, Afflalo has been having a great season offensively. For the sixth year in a row (he’s only been in the league six years), Afflalo has shown marked improvement in his performance. Thus far this season he’s put up 21.7 ppg with a 49% field goal percentage and 50% three point shooting percentage. Afflalo has been almost automatic from just about all areas of the floor while being one of the primary offensive options. His shot chart can be seen to the left.

In addition to posting better statistical numbers than Deng in the basic categories, Afflalo has been a better scoring option than Deng in most situations. The following is a table comparing the points per possessions that Afflalo and Deng score. All numbers are from Synergy Sports. The higher the number, the better.

In all situations except for two, Afflalo has shown himself to be the much better scorer. Now granted, these are all numbers through only 9-10 games, so it’s a small sample size. However, both players posted fairly similar points per possession numbers last season. Even ignoring the numbers produced from a small sample size, Afflalo has been comparable or better than Deng in his field goal percentage and three point percentage, respectively.

So at this point, you get it. Afflalo is better than Deng on offense. But what good does that do for Chicago? Obviously having a better offensive option will improve the team’s 24th ranked offense. Having Afflalo would ease some of the burden off of Rose as Afflalo is a better than Deng in isolation situations. Afflalo would also space the floor a little better, as well as force defenses to limit how often they double team Rose. Most importantly he can act as a true two-guard. Jimmy Butler is a nice option to have at shooting guard, however he is more suited to take on a Luol Deng type role (explained in my discussion to trade Deng- linked above).  By moving players into their more traditional roles, Chicago may fair a bit better on offense.

Now I won’t completely ignore Jameer Nelson, though for the most part he is simply an afterthought when making this trade. For the most part Nelson would be brought in to be a three point shooter off the bench (career average 38%). There would be a log jam at guard behind Rose, however this can easily be remedied by having Hinrich play as the backup shooting guard most of the time, something Thibodeau already likes to do with Rose on the court anyways.

Financial Impact of the Trade

Many Bulls fans expect Chicago to follow through with the “2014 plan” this coming offseason. For those of you who don’t know, the plan essentially entails Chicago let Deng walk and amnesty Boozer to sign a max contract player. Unfortunately the 2014 plan doesn’t work out quite like how many people expect it to. Assuming the Bulls made the necessary moves, all they would be left with is roughly $14 million in cap space this offseason, possibly less depending on Nikola Mirotic. Unfortunately this isn’t enough to get the player some fans want.

By pulling the trade for Afflalo and Nelson, the Bulls would kiss any possible free agent signing for this offseason goodbye but would potentially set themselves up in a nice position for the 2015 offseason. Assume Boozer isn’t amnestied (which is likely because Jerry Reinsdorf isn’t going to pay someone not to play) and the Bulls pick up Jameer Nelson’s $8 million option for next season. That would send the Bulls into the 2015 free agency period with roughly $24 million in expiring deals. In addition to that, the Bulls may have roughtly $7.7 million free if Afflalo were to opt out of his contract after next season (if he sustains his current level of production, that is likely since he would be considered underpaid). With those three off of the books, the Bulls could make a run at either Kevin Love or Lemarcus Aldridge and extend Jimmy Butler with some money to spare. The Bulls would then be left with the option of using their bird rights on Afflalo to extend him past the cap.

Trading Deng and pick for Afflalo and Nelson would keep Chicago contending in the short term while stabilizing the financial future of the team.

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Unfortunately, the trade likely won’t ever happen so we won’t really know just what kind of impact it’d have on the Bulls and their chance to win the title. But if I had my way and I ran the team that’s the trade I would try to negotiate and the reasons why I would try to negotiate it. I hope that adequately answers your question, Mark B. If you, or any of you other readers, agree or disagree with the trade idea or have another trade idea of your own, let us know in the comments.

The post Mailbag Part 2- Defending a Twitter Trade Involving Deng appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Stats from Basketball-Reference

Orlando Injury Report:
Arron Afflalo: out (slightly torn hamstring)
Glen Davis: out (foot)
Jameer Nelson: doubtful (sprained ankle)
Hedo Turkoglu: out (personal)

Overview:
It wasn’t pretty, but that wouldn’t be the Chicago Bulls way if it was. Carlos Boozer and company pulled out another win in a game which they really didn’t have a right being in, edging the Nets by two and pulling closer to the fourth spot in the Eastern Conference.

The Bulls shot 26.3 percent in the first quarter and turned it over six times as Brook Lopez outscored Chicago 18-13 in the first frame all by himself. The Bulls made five shots in the first 12 minutes, while Lopez made eight. Down 26-13, it looked as though the injuries might be too much for Chicago to overcome. You couldn’t blame them. Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah, Marco Belinelli, Derrick Rose and Rip Hamilton would make a solid starting five. With all of those guys out it would be easy to come out flat, fall behind by 16 and then coast the rest of the game and take the loss. But Tom Thibodeau wouldn’t allow that, and neither did the Bulls who were healthy.

Boozer led the way with an enormous double-double of 29 points and 18 rebounds. It wasn’t a one man show though, as Jimmy Butler got his own double-double (16 points, ten rebounds), Luol Deng dropped 18 points and Nate Robinson scored an efficient 12 off the bench, including the go-ahead bucket with 22 seconds left.

Brook Lopez, who had 28 points, missed a possible game-tying jumper at the end of the game that was grabbed by Daequan Cook as time expired. That Cook was on the court at the end of a two-point game shows what Thibs has to work with…and it isn’t much.

It’s going to be just as thin tonight presumably when the Bulls take on the Magic. Boozer logged 45 minutes, Deng played 42 and Butler recorded 43. Even Nazr Mohammed (37) and Kirk Hinirch (33), who fouled out in the fourth, logged heavy time. I guess when your bench options are Vladimir Radmanovic, Cook and Nate, you tend to rely heavily on anyone else.

Chicago is 9-7 on back-to-backs this year, although I’m not sure they’ve been as shorthanded as they will be tonight.

Orlando has lost 11 of their last 12 games, with ten of those 11 losses coming against playoff teams. The other loss was against the Bobcats, but who are the Bulls to look down on a team that loses to Charlotte? The Magic’s lone victory during that stretch was against the Wizards, a team that beat Chicago this week.

In the Magic’s defense, they too are fighting through some tough injuries. Jameer Nelson, Glen Davis and Arron Afflalo have all been out recently, with Nelson being the only one with a chance to play tonight, although he is listed as doubtful.

The Bulls have squeaked out two wins over the Magic this season, by two and six points. But just as we were reminded last night, it doesn’t matter how pretty it is, it only matters if you get the win.

The post Magic-Bulls Preview appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Stats from Basketball-Reference

Magic Injury Report:
Gustavo Ayon: doubtful (bruised thigh)
Glen Davis: out (sprained shoulder)
Al Harrington: out (knee)
E’Twaun Moore: doubtful (sprained elbow)
Jameer Nelson: questionable (sore hip)

Overview:
Other than Derrick Rose re-tearing his ACL, the Bulls’ 2012 ended about as badly as it could have: with a loss to the Bobcats. It not only ended Charlotte’s 18-game losing streak, but it was the Bobcats only win in the month of December.

The loss continued a trend of four straight games that the Bulls have looked like a lottery team. It started with two blowout losses to the Hawks and Rockets, continued with an ugly win over the NBA worst Wizards and culminated with the loss to Charlotte.

Luol Deng (20 points, 12 rebounds) and Carlos Boozer (19 points, 14 rebounds) both recorded double-doubles in the losing effort. Joakim Noah, who was apparently battling the flu and sure looked like something was wrong, only shot twice. Jo had no energy, grabbed only four boards and never really got into the game. Nate Robinson was 2-11, so it would probably have been better if he hadn’t gotten into the game. Marco Belinelli went back to his “old bench self,” meaning he was terrible as his role off the bench. He went 3-12 from the field before fouling out.

Nobody played well, the Bulls shot 35.1 percent as a team and once again got out-rebounded for the fourth straight game.The Bulls were without starting point guard Kirk Hinrich (who hasn’t been good this year), but the Bobcats were missing Michael Kidd-Gilchrist and Byron Mullens.

Luckily for the Bulls, they get another game against a lottery team. Bad news though, the Magic are on an six-game losing streak. The Bulls aren’t good in this kind of situation.

Orlando is coming off of a two-point overtime loss to the Heat. Arron Afflalo scored 29 points, JJ Redick added 23 and Nikola Vucevic cleaned the glass like non-other, grabbing a franchise-record 29 rebounds to go with 20 points. Who needs Dwight Howard, when Vucevic is pulling down 29 boards? The 12-19 Magic need Dwight Howard, that’s who.

As a team Orlando owned the rebounding battle, grabbing 17 more boards overall, and pulling down 18 offensive rebounds to the Heat’s nine.

The Magic rank 29^th in offensive efficiency, which means hopefully the Bulls can outscore them. That isn’t a slam dunk though, as Chicago is 25^th in offensive efficiency. The Bulls have scored less than 82 points in three of their last four games. The offense is broken, and probably won’t be fixed until Rose comes back.

But the Bulls can win if they slow down the Magic’s shooting guards. JJ Redick is averaging 14.4 points and starter Arron Afflalo is dropping a team-high 17.0 per game. Afflalo is up to 20.4 over his last five games, while Redick is scoring 16.2.

Perhaps this most recent loss will wake the Bulls up. Atlanta and Houston are solid teams so losing to them isn’t the worst thing that can happen. And then they pulled out a win against Washington, which probably didn’t teach the Bulls anything as they still came out with a win. But losing to the Bobcats is a slap in the face. No team wants to be the end of an 18-game losing streak. If this was a kick in the pants for Chicago, at least it will have some value.

The post Bulls-Magic Preview appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Possibly even more surprising was their post-Dwight Howard offensive uptick. In those two wins, the Magic scored 102 points against the Denver Nuggets and then 115 points against the Phoenix Suns.

The Bulls — who also had enjoyed a quick 2-0 start — were coming off a disappointing home loss to the New Orleans Hornets in which they were outworked and outplayed amid an offensive meltdown.

The bad news was two-fold for the Magic.

First: The Bulls currently lead the league in Defensive Rating — giving up only 95.3 points per 100 possessions — and had held their previous nine opponents below 90 points.

In other words, the Magic — who were missing Al Harrington, Hedo Turkoglu and Jameer Nelson — were highly unlikely to enjoy the same kind of offensive success they had against the Nuggets (currently 21st in Defensive Rating) and Suns (23rd in Defensive Rating).

Second: Under head coach Tom Thibodeau, the Bulls rarely lose two games in a row. It happened only four times during Thibodeau’s first season and only once last season. What’s more, the Bulls haven’t lost two games in the United Center since dropping five in a row (during a larger 10-game skid) in March of 2012. Back when, you know, Vinny Del Negro was coaching the team.

That trend continued last night as the Bulls put forth a much better offensive effort, scoring 99 points on 47.7 percent shooting and finishing with an Offensive Rating of 105.3.

That said, it wasn’t an overpowering win, nor a particularly pretty one.

The Bulls looked absolutely helpless against Arron Afflalo (game-high 28 points, 10-for-17, 5 rebounds, 5 assists) and trailed by as many as 7 points in the third quarter. Then — with Thibs employing an unusual lineup of Jimmy Butler, Joakim Noah, Luol Deng, Nate Robinson and Taj Gibson — Chicago outscored the Magic 31-23 in the final 12 minutes to secure the comeback victory.

Said Deng: “This was a tough game. They’re playing well, and we lost our last game. It’s one of those we needed to win. You don’t want to lose two, then we’ve got Oklahoma (City) coming in. The fourth quarter was really good for the team.”

Deng certainly did his part, scoring 15 of his team-best 23 points in the second half — on 9-for-16 shooting — to go with 8 rebounds and 4 assists. And 8 of those points came in the fourth, off three mid-range jumpers and a couple free throws.

Noah did his part, too, racking up 20 points (7-for-13), 9 rebounds, 5 blocked shots and 4 assists. His 7 fourth-quarter points included two jumpers from about 20 feet out that were followed by some pretty enthusiastic finger pistols. He also fed Gibson for a dunk-and-foul with 39 seconds left. Taj completed the three-point play to put the Bulls up 96-89, which essentially put the game away.

The only two blights on Noah’s performance were 1) a missed free throw with 23 seconds to go and 2) a rushed (and needless) three-pointer with three seconds left. The first blight kept the Bulls stuck on 99 points — a mere one point away from earning the UC crowd free Big Macs — and the second blight was a rather misguided attempt to make up for the first.

Said Noah: “I got caught up in the moment. I regret it a little bit. It wasn’t a good shot. You have to respect the game because you never know what can happen in a game, I just got caught up in the moment and I was trying to get the people a Big Mac. They really wanted a Big Mac and I felt like, not only did I take the shot and miss the shot, we didn’t even get the Big Mac. Next time I won’t take that 3-pointer.”

Noah isn’t kidding. The crowd spent the last minute of the game concerned much more with the prospect of free food than Chicago’s 3-1 start. They groaned when Noah missed that free throw. They groaned even more loudly when Kirk Hinrich bricked two freebies 13 seconds later. And there was a collective “Awww!” when Noah’s ill-advised triple went astray.

Oh well. As Walt Disney used to say, always leave them wanting more.

Back to the game…this may have been the best performance of the new bench so far. The reserves contributed 29 points, 10 rebounds, 9 assists, 3 steals and 2 blocked shots. And, as noted, Butler (4 points, 3 rebounds, 2 assists, 1 steal), Gibson (12 points, 5 rebounds, 2 blocks) and Robinson (11 points, 5-for-8, 6 assists) were instrumental in Chicago’s fourth quarter comeback.

Those contributions were needed because Carlos Boozer (6-for-18) was struggling to locate his shot and Kirk Hinrich was solid (8 points, 5 rebounds, 5 assists) but not providing the necessary spark.

Still too, it helped that the Magic were minus three projected starters, and that Glen Davis was so darn shot-happy. Last night, he led the Magic in field goal attempts (22) and missed field goal attempts (15)…and that included several air balls. Big Baby was averaging better than 25 points in Orlando’s first two games, but that doesn’t mean he should force up jumpers over taller opponents. But that’s what he did again and again.

Which played into the Chicago’s defensive plan.

Davis was also a big part in what may have been the game’s defining moment. With his team trailing only 93-89 and nearly a minute left in the game, Davis forced up a 26-footer that never had a chance of going in. It was, to be very generous, a questionable decision. In 341 career games, Davis has attempted a total of 39 three-pointers and converted only six of them, a “success” rate of 15.4 percent. What he was doing chucking a three in that circumstance is anyone’s guess.

The Bulls responded to Baby’s brain spasm with that play in which Noah fed Gibson for the dunk and contact. That two-way sequence turned a winnable game into a loss for the Magic.

So Bulls fans might consider sending Davis a thank you card.

On the other hand, The Bulls had their struggles with Afflalo, not to mention E’Twaun Moore (17 points, 7-for-13, 3-for-4 on threes) and Nikola Vucevic (16 points, 10 rebounds, 2 blocks).

The Bulls also lost track of Orlando’s three-point shooters, which helped the Magic go 8-for-19 from downtown (42 percent). By contract, Chicago attempted a mere six three-pointers, converting on only two of them.

I know it’s early, but the Bulls have attempted only 42 threes, which ranks 27th in the league. Worse, they’re shooting a dismal 26.2 percent from beyond the arc, which is 29th in the league. It’s always dangerous to draw too many conclusions from a four-game sample, but I can’t see these numbers changing much. The Bulls — without Derrick Rose and especially after the departure of Kyle Korver — aren’t going to get many threes this season.

But that’s a worry for another day.

Key Stat Part 1:
In their first two games, the Magic averaged 14 fast break points. Last night, they scored only 9.

Key Stat Part 2:
According to Hoopdata, the Bulls shot 18-for-36 (50 percent) from 16-23 feet. The “long two” is the worst shot in the game…but the Bulls were converting it last night.

Quote of the Night Part 1:
Robinson: “I think we wanted it more. I think at the end, we were more gritty. Coach said whatever it takes to get the win. So tonight, we had to gut it out.”

Quote of the Night Part 2:
Noah: “(Winning is) all that counts, but we need to play better. This isn’t going to cut it against a better team. We’ve just got to keep fighting.

Extras:
Recap, Box Score, Advanced Box Score, Play-by-Play, Shot Chart.

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