One of the biggest talks this offseason is going to be where New York Knicks’ star Carmelo Anthony will be playing next season. Heck, it was pretty much the biggest talk all season after talks surfaced of him choosing to opt out of his contract with the Knicks. No doubt he will become a player many teams will be looking at.

After this season’s All-Star Game, Joakim Noah made a pitch to him trying to convince him that Chicago is where Melo needs to be. It is true that the New York Knicks can offer him more money than any other team can, but there is the possibility that he decides to head off to another team in search for a championship. One of those teams seems to be Chicago. However, that would mean Chicago would have to make a few trades in addition to using the amnesty provision on Carlos Boozer.

Yes, Carmelo Anthony would be taking a pay cut if that were to happen, but it could be a better decision than staying with the New York Knicks. He would play under a terrific coach in Tom Thibodeau and have the chance to play with one of the best all-around centers in Joakim Noah. Not to mention the one-two punch he would create with Derrick Rose, who is expected to return next year healthy.

Chicago Needs a Scorer

The Bulls had a terrible year scoring this season. They traded away Luol Deng early this season, which didn’t help. And Rose being injured was a huge set back. But imagine how much of a threat they would be with their current squad (minus Boozer), adding Rose and Anthony leading the way. They would be very hard to stop on the offensive end, which would give them the needed confidence on defense (even though they don’t really need to improve on defense).

The Bulls ended the season ranked dead last in the league with only 93.7 points per game. In 2010-2011, Rose averaged 25 points per game when he was named the MVP of the season. Last year, Carmelo Anthony was crowned the best scorer in the league, dethroning Kevin Durant. A healthy Rose and a happy Anthony would just add up to a dominant Chicago.

This would be a very smart move for Chicago and they should do it as insurance just in case Rose never returns to his megaform. Reality is, there is a slight chance that Rose will never stay healthy again. He has only played 49 games over the past three seasons. So, adding Melo would be a positive move either way. Whether or not Rose returns to his self, they would still have someone who can score 30 points like it’s nothing.

Not only is Anthony a dynamic and dominant scorer today, he is no doubt one of the best the league has ever seen. This season in January, he scored an incredible 62 points against the Charlotte Bobcats, setting a Madison Square Garden record. That type of scoring would’ve kept the Bulls hopes for a championship alive this postseason. They lost in the first round against the Wizards, 4a -1 in an embarrassing series for the Bulls. That series included a 63 point game for the Bulls in their Game 5 loss.

It is possible for Rose to take a step back and let Melo lead, knowing that it would be best for the team. They can co-exist and Rose letting Melo be the top option would be the best option. Don’t get me wrong, Rose would still shine and put up great numbers and that’s because a Melo-led offense would NEED a talented point guard. Without someone to control the ball at the point, the ball would end up in Anthony’s hands the whole time. That would ruin the flow of the offense and cause mistakes, turnovers and bad play. And since Rose (a healthy one) is one of the game’s best point guards, they would both excel together.

Anthony + Rose = Title Contender

Coming into this season, the Bulls were viewed as a title contender. And it was justified with Rose returning to the court. However, that statement quickly deteriorated when Rose went down again and Luol Deng was traded for nothing. All that aside, they still managed to fight their way to 48 games, although they were never viewed the same.

Adding Anthony would mean that the Bulls would be title contenders again and in the event that Rose goes down, or they lose someone else, they would still be viewed as a contender no matter what. With Rose at point, Jimmy Butler at the other guard, Melo at SF, Taj Gibson and Defensive POY Noah at center, you have yourself a championship team that can easily compete with the Pacers and Heat.

The major concern with Anthony going to Chicago is how he and head coach Thibodeau would get along. Anthony hates defense and Thibs strives on defense. After all, that is how they landed the 4 seed in the East, with defense. However, you don’t necessarily have to be a lockdown defender to thrive in Thibs system. It seems no matter who you put in that system, they find a way to win. Carmelo Anthony said it himself, “Thibs is a great coach, his system kind of reminds me of Gregg Popovich’s system. You put anybody in that system and it’s going to work. That’s what they’ve been doing. They’ve had guys sitting out all season long, guys that’s been in and out of the lineups and they seem to get it done.”

So Anthony’s defense should be fine. In fact, they would be seen as not just a defensive threat, but as an offensive threat as well. The Bulls would only grow from Anthony joining.

What I’m trying to say here, is that an Anthony-Rose duo can exist. And not only can it exist, but it can flourish and turn the Chicago Bulls into a scary good team and easy title contender. If this move ends up happening, championship banner No. 7: here it comes.

The post Guest Post- Can Carmelo Anthony and Derrick Rose Coexist? appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Among the most prevalent names circling the league before the annual award allocation are Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson. The linchpins of the Chicago Bulls’ defense have, in many ways, held the house that Jordan built just behind the levee that’s been tested periodically throughout the season. The league’s scariest front-line has played together less as of late, the exception being late-game closeout situations, but when they do, you notice.

There’s a good chance that when the devil of defense licked the league, his cloven tongue was one side Noah and one side Gibson. One could make the argument that Noah is in the running for two awards: Most Valuable Player and Defensive Player of the Year. One could make the argument that Gibson is up for two as well: Most Improved Player of the Year and Sixth Man of the Year. Regardless of how the league’s delegation resolves the accolades, the two have been special in 2014.

Joakim Noah is this season’s determined archetype – he’s fit for a Where Magic Happens playoff commercial already. There’s a good chance that if either of Noah’s forearms were to somehow disappear during a game, he’d cauterize the stump and run back to the court. Noah has acceded to the pinnacle of his position and has four triple-doubles (tied for league-best with Indiana’s Lance Stephenson) this season to prove it.

Taj Gibson has the length of a school bus and has extrapolated a notorious offensive game into the defensive guardian the Bulls have yearned for since drafting him in 2008. He’s never played more minutes per game than he is (28.6) and his 74% from the free-throw line is a career-high. His basketball IQ has made leaps and bounds, evident in his refined offensive post-moves and his defensive ability to switch onto wings and guards, a result of Thibodeau’s confidence in his switching abilities and maturation.

Furnished with parking meters for fists, the Noah-Gibson duo has been ransacking glass and discarding floaters all season. They’re buccaneers of the paint, and aren’t afraid of bashing in the post for rebounds or even just to send a message. For forwards and centers that have played in more than 70 games and average more than 20 minutes per night, the tandem holds two of the top eight spots in the league regarding opponent’s field goal percentage at the rim. No other team has more than one in the top ten. Neither allows more than 3.6 opponent-made field goals at the rim per night. For comparison: Roy Hibbert (Noah’s strongest competition for DPOY) gives up 4.1 per game.

In this sequence, Gibson is matched up on Drew Gooden and immediately recognizes the lane-crasher, steps up, and rejects the shot.

Although Serge Ibaka leads the league in blocked shots with a stunning 213, the Noah-Gibson pairing has put away 231. Both are rarely caught in the wrong position off pick-and-rolls, and while Noah has a far superior defensive acumen and inhuman timing is, Gibson complements his skillset with length, mobility, and precision. They’re the arms oaring Thibodeau’s defensive stronghold and have altered a season riddled with maladies into a no. 3 seed in the Eastern Conference playoff picture.

Despite Joakim Noah taking an ill-advised shot, Gibson somehow manages to muscle his way in for the rebound and dunk.

More numbers: When Gibson and Noah are on-court, the two-man combination yields a +.032 field goal percentage (Chicago field goal percentage less the opposition field goal percentage), a team high. The two generate the most turnovers of any on the roster and their paint protection permeates to their teammates.

Using ESPN’s newly unveiled real plus/minus metric, Gibson holds the no. 8 spot on the power forward chart with a 4.50. Noah holds the top spot for centers with a 4.19. Only Chicago and Miami (Andersen, Bosh) can claim two players in the top ten that have played in more than 70 games. For players averaging at least 28 minutes per game, Gibson has the third-best defensive rpm (3.65). The only center that averages more minutes than Noah is the Clippers’ DeAndre Jordan, who sits fourteen spots beneath him on the defensive rpm chart.

In this sequence, Noah jumps the passing route of Paul George and in less than three seconds, tosses the ball down-court for a Jimmy Butler dunk on the other end.

As Grantland’s Zach Lowe points out, Noah’s defensive numbers this season have been staggering:

Noah on floor: 103.4 points per 100 possessions; 95.2 points allowed.

Noah on bench: 95.7 points per 100 possessions; 103.4 points allowed.

The league average for player efficiency is 15: Gibson has a 16.4 and Noah sits at 20.1. Per 36 minutes, their numbers are even more impressive. Noah is averaging a double-double with 11.4 points and 10.1 rebounds; Gibson is averaging a career-high 16.5 points and 8.6 rebounds per game.

Blame it on numbers and how the minutes the two accumulate nightly are the causation of the vagarious data, but since jettisoning Luol Deng to Cleveland for nothing of present value, the Bulls have gone 34-15. The Bulls give up just 91.8 points per game, the best in the league. When you’re defense is that strong, you can afford to play primitive offense, as the Bulls have done since losing Deng and Rose.

The pulse of the Chicago Bulls pounds from the paint, from those who were unwilling to accept 2014 as just another “wait till next year” season. Chalk it up to pride, but you’d be remiss to not consider Noah and Gibson as the primary reasons why the heart still beats.

The post The Two Towers appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

From Flickr via Shinya

This was supposed to be the year. The year Jimmy Butler announced to the whole world, “I have arrived.” After coming off of a very impressive finish to the 2012-2013 regular season, Butler really burst onto the scene during the 2013 semifinal matchup with the Miami Heat, where he held League MVP (and destroyer of worlds) LeBron James to under 44% shooting. With a starting 5 of Rose-Butler-Deng-Boozer-Noah, Jimmy Buckets was supposed to be the fourth scoring option while providing elite defense.

Oh how quickly times can change. With Rose out for the year, Deng traded, and Boozer doing his best Eddy Curry impression, Butler has been thrust into a very unfamiliar role: life as a playmaker. Let’s take a look at what the numbers say about his transition from role player to an offensive focal point.

The general trend that an increase in usage leads to a decrease in efficiency holds true in this case. Simply put, this season Jimmy Butler has been a shooting guard who can’t shoot. Butler’s three point shooting percentage has basically fallen off a cliff, and it is probably the main culprit behind his sub par field goal percentage and subsequently, his offensive rating and PER. Or is it….

2012-2013 Regular Season

2013-2014 Regular Season

Truth be told Butler has been struggling from the three point line, but a large part of that is because his three point shooting has been forced to leave the cozy confines of the corners (try saying that ten times). As he is forced to take on more of a playmaking burden, Butler has had to expand his overall game beyond just being a stationary three point shooter. Really though, the main area where he has struggled is near the hoop. On shots less than 5 feet, Butler is shooting only 55.5%, whereas last year he shot 62.5%. Lacking elite athleticism, Butler needs to work on the finer details in order to create separation. Veteran players who excel in the paint are masters of the hesitation dribble, changing pace and direction, and floaters, all in order to create that little bit of room needed to get off a shot when near the hoop. Butler too often is able to get the hoop, but lacks the guile and footwork needed to finish and instead just puts his head down and prays for the best.

Now this is not all Butler’s fault obviously. The Bulls are not a team that will get very many easy buckets due to their refusal to be a “push the pace” team. The understanding of how NBA offenses work has progressed very far in the last couple of years and something we have learned is that the most efficient way to score is within the first 10 seconds of the shot clock, with the least efficient way being as the clock is winding down.

Not good. The average was calculated by taking the top 150 players in terms of field goal attempts (Butler ranks 141^st), and Butler has lapped the field in taking shots with 21+ seconds left.  This is the most inefficient time to take a shot and it shows in Butler’s effective field goal % (where a three is given more weight than a 2) as it dips to just below 32%. Think about that for a second, almost a quarter of the shots Butler takes are with 3 seconds or fewer left on the shot clock. Out of all 150 players, Butler’s percentage of shots taken at the end of the shot clock was the highest. I am not absolving Butler of blame here, his shooting has still been very poor and his shot is too flat, but I mean geez the guy is perpetually in scenarios such as this:

In all 3 scenarios, Butler is catching the ball outside the 3 point line with less than 7 seconds left on the shot clock. He is basically left with no time to scan the defense and must commit to either driving to the hoop or pulling up, with no alternative in between. Given his size (6’7” and 220 pounds for a shooting guard is gigantic) and the fact that he possesses the best combination of experience and athleticism of any wing player the Bulls have, he has become the guy the Bulls look to when in desperation.

Butler has also had to deal with learning on the fly on how to play without Deng. Take a look at Butler’s stats with and without Deng:

He’s shooting roughly 3 more shots per game, but his shooting percentage has gone down the drain. 40% from the field and 33% from beyond the arc isn’t anything to brag about, but given the Bulls’ offensive limitations I don’t think anyone had a problem with those numbers. However, since Deng left, Butler’s FG% has dropped by almost 5% and almost 13% from beyond the arc. Dunleavy is a solid player, but teams don’t worry about him driving in. Butler needs to cut down on the threes and use his big frame to penetrate the defense and create more for himself and his teammates. He has been taking a lot more shots off the dribble around the 18-20 foot range (following the Way of Wade huh?) which ranks as one of the lowest efficiency shots you can take. Losing Deng has had its toll on the team, but perhaps no player has felt it as much as Butler.

All that being said, Butler is not without blame. His shot has been in a season long slump and he continues to struggle with his decision making.

This image is from the Lakers-Bulls game. Gibson has set a pick on Wesley Johnson which has allowed Butler to round the corner and get a step on Johnson. Steve Blake appears to be signaling for Steve Nash to step up on Butler, which is exactly what happens. This leaves a couple of tantalizing options for Jimmy:

1. Drive in and force the defense to collapse and then hit either Gibson for the short jumper, Noah for the layup, or Dunleavy for the corner three depending on which defender steps up.
2. Force Nash to commit and then pass it out to Hinrich for the open 3.
3. Take it all the way and look to draw contact

So what does he choose? None of them! The second that Butler gets a step on Johnson, he pulls up for a long 2 which clanks off the rim. The hope here is that the more the Bulls put the ball in Butler’s hands, the sooner he will be able to pick apart defenses by reading the layers of an NBA defense (and yes, the Lakers count as an NBA defense).

In the end, what does all of this mean for Butler? Well, I don’t really know. He remains an elite defender, ranking second to only Lance Stephenson in Defensive Rating for starting shooting guards. He is tied for fifth in the league in steals and has shown to be a very promising player in the open court. Entering the season I thought that Butler would be the Eastern Conference version of Kawhi Leonard: a lockdown defender who can be a very solid complimentary piece on offense. My stance on this has not changed at all. Butler is a tireless worker and a willing listener, skills that will serve him well down the road. The problem with over-analyzing stats is that it does not tell the whole story of the player’s surroundings. For years Monta Ellis was considered an inefficient gunner who does not play basketball “the right way”. Well, this season he is putting up career numbers across the board (5^th among shooting guards in PER), all because he is finally in a situation where he is not relied upon to do too much. At the beginning of the season, Gordon Hayward was struggling heavily and could not handle the responsibility that comes with being a go-to scorer. What happened? Trey Burke got healthy and Hayward has been playing far better now that he has someone else to take some of the burden off of him. I still believe that Jimmy Butler has the ability and the skillset to develop into a reliable 15 ppg, 45% shooter in this league. We have yet to see Butler play with a true superstar, and I get the feeling once we do, we will see the player we had hoped to see this season.

Note

• Shot clock stats from www.82games.com and were last updated 01/26/14
• All statistics from www.basketball-reference.com & www.NBA.com
• All shot charts from www.vorped.com

The post Guest Post: Figuring out Jimmy Butler appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

At the same time, the loss was good for the Bulls because as long as they were able to keep winning while shooting terribly from the line, there would have been no sense of urgency. The manner in which they lost, however, might actually help the team in the long run.

It is true that free-throw shooting is not an easy skill to improve quickly (if at all). It takes time, practice, and good coaching. But above all, it requires dedication by the individual(s), and that is something that, in this context, seems to have been missing from the Bulls this season.

Given that it was Rose – an underachiever at the line himself – who missed the crucial free-throw, it is likely that he will redouble his efforts to improve in that area. And given that he is certainly a leader of the team, and especially by example of his work ethic, perhaps the rest of the players will feel pressure to focus on improving their foul shooting (pun intended) as well.

This is no joke, though, as even with the team (hopefully) back at full strength for the playoffs, any thought of upsetting an elite contender will remain a fantasy unless the Bulls shore up their free-throw shooting.

About the Author:
Tony C. grew up in Evanston, and cut his teeth on the exciting, early ’70’s Walker-Love-Sloan-Van Lier Bulls. As you might expect, he is thrilled with the direction and development of the current team, as the emphasis on determination, defense and chemistry is so reminiscent of that classic, earlier era.

The post Guest Post: The Clippers debacle appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

A related conundrum for the Bulls is this: Having acquired one of the more potent pure shooters in the league in Kyle Korver, why have they been so unsuccessful in utilizing his specific skill?

Korver is averaging 12.3 shots per 40 minutes this season, which is consistent with his career numbers. However, as the Bulls best long-range shooting option, and one of the only members of the team capable of hitting consistently from outside, Korver needs to be given more, and better opportunities.

At the risk of parsing things a bit too finely, Korver is averaging 5.4 shots per 40 minutes from between 16-23 ft., while Taj Gibson is averaging 6.6 from the same distances. Now, I am delighted with Gibson’s progress as a mid-range shooter, and as long as his percentage stays high, I want him to shoot open jumpers. I also understand that Korver was brought in primarily as a three-point specialist. But thus far, the Bulls have done a poor job getting Korver good, open looks, and figuring out how to do so should be a high priority.

Given his long-standing focus on defense, it was predictable that Thibodeaux would be quick to implement a successful defensive system, and that effective, creative offensive strategies would (at best) be slower to be developed. It is also the case that it will take some time for the team to adapt to Boozer’s insertion into the line-up. But now – especially now, with the addition of Boozer – the coaches need to find ways to make better use of Korver.

Thus far, the Bulls have run fairly traditional plays in efforts to get Korver open. But, as they haven’t worked particularly well, it seems to me that some creativity is in order. So, for example, it’s worth noting that Korver, when he is well-covered by a defender, has shown an ability to almost instantly return an incoming pass to the sender. It’s an unusual skill to have developed, but a potentially valuable one for a hired gun. I believe that the Bulls could capitalize by occasionally engaging Korver in a two-man game with either Boozer or Noah on the high-post. Both of those players are good passers, and if Korver isn’t open the first time around, he might be able to catch defenders off-guard by immediately returning the pass, making a quick cut, receiving another pass, and firing off a shot.

With so much defensive attention paid to Derrick Rose, I also don’t see why Korver shouldn’t be given an opportunity to handle the ball on occasion, rubbing off screens, and engaging in pick-and-roll plays with Noah and Boozer. Yes, it’s true that Korver isn’t a great ball handler, but the risk of an extra turnover now and then would be outweighed by several extra good looks per game. A tangential advantage of this approach would be that throwing radically different schemes at opposing defenses, all of which are currently geared to key in on Rose, could open up other opportunities.

It appears clear that the Bulls have the talent, desire and coaching to beat lesser teams, even when they have to rely heavily on Rose’s offensive output to do so. But if they hope to reach their full potential, and pose a threat to elite teams in the playoffs, they must make good use of their other offensive weapons. Boozer will obviously contribute in that area; let’s hope that Korver is given a greater opportunity to do so.

About the Author:
Tony C. grew up in Evanston, and cut his teeth on the exciting, early ’70’s Walker-Love-Sloan-Van Lier Bulls. As you might expect, he is thrilled with the direction and development of the current team, as the emphasis on determination, defense and chemistry is so reminiscent of that classic, earlier era.

The post The Korver Conundrum appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Kyle Korver has shown enough flashes of his pure shooting ability that, especially on a team with few other long-range weapons, he has been mostly embraced by fans. C.J. Watson recently muffled the catcalls of naysayers with a 33 point outburst when starting in place of the injured Derrick Rose, and Keith Bogans remains a solid defender while disappointing on the offensive end.

The fourth new face, Ronnie Brewer, may be the most interesting and under-exposed of the group. Hampered by a hamstring injury early on, Brewer has steadily progressed, and, while still coming off the bench, he is enjoying greatly increased minutes as a reward for his valuable contributions on both ends of the floor.

It is true that Brewer is neither a strong outside shooter, nor an especially good ball handler, but he is a very unusual athlete, particularly in the context of his natural off-guard position. At a legitimate 6’ 7”, with long arms and serious hops, Brewer is capable of doing damage around the basket that most guards can only match in their dreams.

Defensively, Brewer has shown himself to be both dynamic and valuable. His physical attributes make him a disruptive force on the perimeter, as he is well-capable of getting his hands on balls in the passing lanes, and closing out effectively on jump shooters. In the context of a flexible team defense such as the one that the Bulls are developing, Brewer is also versatile, as he can switch to cover smaller forwards and hold his own.

While cherry-picking a single statistic after only 16 games is not the foundation of a strong argument, it is interesting to note that Brewer is currently averaging 5.1 defensive rebounds per 36 minutes. That’s close, to use just one amusing example, to Tyrus Thomas’ numbers, and Brewer’s number is in the context of a team that features one of the top defensive rebounders in the game (i.e. Noah).

What strikes me as most tantalizing about Brewer, though, is the potential for him to become a dangerous offensive weapon for the Bulls. Consider, as a backdrop, that Tom Thibodeau is a defensive-minded coach first and foremost, and while he has obviously been an upgrade over del Negro on the offensive end, the Bulls re-tooled defense is much further along than the offense at this early stage.

I also believe that some creative offensive sets can and should be developed around Brewer and his unusual combination of size and skills. With both Noah and Boozer able to hit mid-range shots, and Rose, Watson, Deng and Korver all able to stretch defenses to some degree, I can imagine schemes that would allow Brewer to slash, rub off picks, and make back-cuts to the basket, proving potent on the receiving end of well-executed passes.

To take it one step further, there will be instances in which Brewer with be guarded by players who will be unable to match his vertical game. So, if the Bulls could develop plays in which the defense is drawn away from the basket, and accurate alley-oop passes are fed to Brewer, I expect that he could give opponents fits.

Now, it is true that teams would attempt to adjust to such plays, but the mere threat of Brewer skying over a smaller guard for an easy dunk could prove valuable to the Bulls offense. For example, a forward guarding either Boozer or Deng might be distracted, or forced to cheat because of concern over Brewer cutting towards the basket. There are many possible permutations, of course, but the point is that an effective play can be valuable even if it is used sparingly.

Creativity is, at times, an underrated variable in NBA offenses, and the Bulls have an opportunity to exploit Ronnie Brewer in a creative manner. Who was the last guard to be regularly targeted as a finisher in alley-oops in half-court offenses (Jason Richardson is more of a fast-break finisher)? David Thompson? Speaking of whom, perhaps the Bulls should bring in Monte Towe to help refine Rose’s touch on such passes!

Brewer is likely to continue to prove valuable to the Bulls in any case. But he is still a relatively young player, and there is no reason to believe that he has necessarily reached his full potential. Hopefully the coaching staff will figure out just how to make the most of his unusual talents.

About the Author:
Tony C. grew up in Evanston, and cut his teeth on the exciting, early ’70’s Walker-Love-Sloan-Van Lier Bulls. As you might expect, he is thrilled with the direction and development of the current team, as the emphasis on determination, defense and chemistry is so reminiscent of that classic, earlier era.

The post Ronnie Brewer: High-Flying Upside? appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

“As far as getting to the line more, anybody else kind of in awe of Rose’s ability to AVOID contact in the lane? A friend that was a Philly fan a few years back noticed tonight that Rose seems to resemble Iverson only without the falling to the floor part. Rose doesn’t seem to try to avoid contact, but when you get in the lane that often, how do you NOT get fouled?”

This is an interesting question that has come up on occasion since Rose entered the NBA, and it is worth attempting to answer.

Derrick Rose is a unique offensive player. His combination of quickness, strength, body control and creativity make him arguably the most dynamic and effective finisher around the basket of any guard in the history of the game. (If anyone can think of his equal, I’m all ears.)

When (not if) he beats his man, the question boils down to how well the defense helps. If there is only one defender present, Rose typically glides around, or elevates over him en route to two points. If more than one defender steps in, he often exercises the option of pulling up for one of his short, accurate floaters. But not always.

There are instances in which Rose will cradle the ball to his side as securely as any NFL running back might, drive into – and sometimes through – heavy traffic in the lane, and attempt to get to the rim. Those are, in particular, the plays that have left many fans scratching their heads in wonder at the relatively low number of free-throws awarded to Rose during his career to date.

So how does he not get fouled more often? To my mind, there are several contributing factors which combine to reveal the answer.

First, and most importantly, his sheer strength allows him to absorb many hits which would send virtually all other point guards sprawling to the floor. This is a double-edged sword, as while it can undoubtedly contribute to a referee’s (possibly incorrect) perception that no foul was committed, it also allows Rose to get off decent shots which would otherwise be nearly impossible to make.

Rose’s remarkable body control allows him to avoid (serious) contact more effectively than most players who aggressively drive to the basket. This, too, reduces the instances of fouls, as last-line defenders must often rely on attempts to block his shot.

While I believe that this dynamic is now changing to a degree, Rose has also suffered from the combination of being a young player who wasn’t receiving the benefit of the doubt from refs, coupled with him being relatively quiet, rather than vocal, when calls were missed.

Interestingly, his natural tendency to be quiet and respectful may well benefit him greatly in the long run. Consider what Moses Malone, who played in 1,212 games without fouling out (yes, you read correctly), had to say about referees when interviewed by Slam Online:

“They got to call the game and you have to respect them. They make some bad calls, but never embarrass the referee. They got to do the work so once they make a call, let it be.”

Finally, I’d argue that the importance of Rose getting to the line more frequently is broadly overstated. I say that because on balance, his abilities outlined above produce plenty of baskets that, in aggregate, equal or exceed the points that more foul shots would produce. Having said that, I would like to see him develop and utilize an understanding of when, especially towards the end of tight games, the best and most conservative option would be to get to the line.

About the Author:
Tony C. grew up in Evanston, and cut his teeth on the exciting, early ’70’s Walker-Love-Sloan-Van Lier Bulls. As a pick-up player, he admits to having stuck too long with low-top shoes (Puma Baskets, for the detail oriented), but did belatedly make the switch when the sprained ankles became tedious. Tony’s professional life revolves mainly around buying, selling and managing Thoroughbred racehorses. While he now resides outside of Chicago, he remains an interested, enthusiastic, and at times critical Bulls fan.

The post Guest Post: Why doesn’t Derrick Rose get to the line more? appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

The Bulls have now played three games, which, if the full NBA season were expressed in terms of a single 48-minute game, is equivalent to less than two minutes into the game. In other words, all of the hyperbolic contributions to various blogs and sports media should be taken with several grains of salt. So, with that in mind, let’s take a deep breath and attempt to put a little perspective around what we’ve seen thus far.

The Bulls are obviously a work in progress. There is every reason to believe that they will improve throughout the season, both before and after Boozer’s return. Bearing that simple point in mind, there is every reason to be very optimistic.

Another broad, though related point, is that it will take some time for Tom Thibodeau to become fully comfortable with his new head coaching role, and for the team to fully adapt to his very different style and concepts. Anyone who thinks that he is not a huge upgrade from VDN — even at this very early stage — simply isn’t paying attention. This is another reason to be very Bullish on the team’s prospects this season.

Luol Deng had a terrific pre-season, both internationally and with the Bulls, including showing signs that he had done some seriously effective work on his three-point shooting. His first game of the season was decent, and his second was disappointing. He broke out against the Blazers, and reminded everyone how valuable he can be at his best. When the Bulls begin to fire on all cylinders, and especially after Boozer returns, neither Deng nor Rose will be under great pressure to carry the offensive load themselves. That should, and almost certainly will make both of them even more effective.

Rose and Noah are obviously playing very well, and their recent exploits have been well-documented. I will add a couple of points, though. Rose is clearly the best point guard in the league at getting to the rim, and finishing around the basket. In fact, he may already be the best ever. His mid-range jumper has improved, and is more than adequate.

His three-point shooting, however, continues to be uneven, and I frankly don’t have high expectations for major improvement in that area during the season. I hope that I am proven wrong, but I do not want to see Rose shooting threes with regularity unless he improves his consistency. His defense has improved, and should continue to do so under Thibs. I also expect that his passing will improve, especially when Boozer begins to play, and Rose feels less pressure to score. Noah is, quite simply, outstanding, and anyone who thinks (or thought) that he should have been included in a ‘Melo trade should have their head examined.

I don’t agree with the yelps of criticism leveled at Bogans by some fans early on. He is a strong, solid defender, and has shown signs of being able to hit open threes. I love the way that he almost never leaves his feet while defending, and he is also very good at staying in front of his man. He is a solid role player. Brewer was obviously hampered by his hamstring injury, and is beginning to show signs of life. While limited offensively, I expect that he will prove useful on both ends of the floor, especially when the Bulls are running an up-tempo offense. Watson is useful at best, and, while I can’t get excited about him, he is clearly an upgrade over Pargo.

Korver will be very valuable, and has barely had a chance to begin to show his stuff. I’ve been pleasantly surprised by his adequate defense, and his near-constant movement on the offensive end is a big plus. Asik will improve throughout the year, and is already a valuable contributor. He is likely to become the biggest overachiever (relative to expectations) on the team. James Johnson has made impressive progress, though he still has a long way to go. He’s a terrific athlete, and is showing a willingness to be coached. He still needs to show more restraint at times (e.g. less ball handling, staying on his feet more on defense, etc.), but should continue to improve, and contribute on both ends.

Taj has, to my mind, been something of a disappointment. I was a big supporter of his last season, and he does bring a number of positive qualities to the table. However, he remains (too) foul prone, and there is no use in trying to deny that he has very poor hands. That’s not to say that he can’t be a useful backup to Boozer, but I was hoping to see more improvement in his areas of weakness (including free throws).

Barring any major injuries during the season, I believe that the Bulls will prove to be very dangerous in the playoffs. They have already shown signs of being able to compete with some of the better teams in the league, and, for some of the reasons touched on above, aren’t yet anywhere close to reaching their full potential.

About the author:
Tony C. grew up in Evanston, and cut his teeth on the exciting, early ’70’s Walker-Love-Sloan-Van Lier Bulls. As a pick-up player, he admits to having stuck too long with low-top shoes (Puma Baskets, for the detail oriented), but did belatedly make the switch when the sprained ankles became tedious. Tony’s professional life revolves mainly around buying, selling and managing Thoroughbred racehorses. While he now resides outside of Chicago, he remains an interested, enthusiastic, and at times critical Bulls fan.

The post Guest Post: More than half-full appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Pictured: VND prepares his team for yet another contested 20-footer.

Because I was the one who originally suggested paying attention to the plays the Bulls run out of timeouts, I’ll elaborate a bit on why I believe some of VDN’s basic limitations are exposed by these plays.

Out of timeouts, offensive plays provide crystallized glimpses into the quality and creativity of coaching strategies. It’s true that teams execute practiced plays throughout the course of games, but plays out of timeouts are essentially the equivalent of NFL plays out of timeouts. Yes, the players must execute, but the quality and creativity of the plays themselves are the overarching factors in their success or failure.

Good NBA coaches are often creative enough to come up with plays that result in the right players getting good shots out of timeouts. Unfortunately for Bulls fans, VDN is not a good coach, and this rarely happens.

Remember last year when the predictable VDN move was to get the ball to Ben Gordon late in close games? Well, on a basic level, one can hardly fault him for wanting to get the ball into Gordon’s hands. But far too often BG had to come hard to the ball, and then create his own shot over or around one or more defenders.

While that might seem to be a reasonable strategy with Kobe, Carmelo or LeBron, it obviously isn’t the best way to create good, efficient scoring opportunities, especially for teams without transcendent superstars. (As an aside, even in Cleveland’s case, that kind of limited strategy has been exposed as being insufficient when employed against elite opponents. And if they are to win a championship, it will be due in part to their coaches having figured that out, and made the adjustment.)

In order to provide some context to the discussion, consider the following example.

The OKC Thunder, as you might expect, badly wants to get the ball to Kevin Durant, and especially in the latter stages of close games. Of course every opposing team knows this, and so it isn’t easy to get the ball to KD out of a timeout when he is in a good position to shoot a high-percentage shot. So, with that in mind, take a look at this recent Thunder play, broken down nicely at the NBA Playbook site.

Now, obviously this is one isolated example, and I am not suggesting that the Thunder coach is brilliant, nor that this is typical of their plays out of timeouts (I wouldn’t know). I also recognize that players like Durant are exceptional. However, I would suggest that if one were to review all of the plays out of timeouts devised by VDN over the past two seasons, one would be hard-pressed to find a single play of such creative and effective design.

Bear in mind that even with Tyrus Thomas gone, the Bulls still have athletic big men who could be dangerous scorers around the basket if their numbers were called through well-designed pick-and-rolls, etc. And given that most teams key on Rose, Hinrich or Deng out of timeouts, VDN would be well-advised to develop some plays that utilize them as decoys. If he were to do that effectively, then opposing teams would be forced to reduce some of their pressure on the obvious players, which in turn would open up the court, and create fresh opportunities.

Finally, as Matt noted recently, someone suggested that his running timeout tally should be parsed out further. That’s a reasonable suggestion, though I predict that it will lead to the same, unfortunate conclusion: VDN is well below average at deploying creative plays out of timeouts which result in good shots taken by the right players.

About the author:
Tony C. grew up in Evanston, and cut his teeth on the exciting, early ’70’s Walker-Love-Sloan-Van Lier Bulls. As a pick-up player, he admits to having stuck too long with low-top shoes (Puma Baskets, for the detail oriented), but did belatedly make the switch when the sprained ankles became tedious. Tony’s professional life revolves mainly around buying, selling and managing Thoroughbred racehorses. While he now resides outside of Chicago, he remains an interested, enthusiastic, and at times critical Bulls fan.

The post Guest post: Vinny and Timeouts appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.