For someone who the world wishes would just stop talking, people sure listen when Derrick Rose speaks.

He caused a stir with his recent comments about saving his body. As a refresher:

“I feel I’ve been managing myself pretty good. I know a lot of people get mad when they see me sit out. But I think a lot of people don’t understand that when I sit out, it’s not because of this year. I’m thinking about long term. I’m thinking about after I’m done with basketball, having graduations to go to, having meetings to go to.

“I don’t want to be in my meetings all sore or be at my son’s graduation all sore just because of something I did in the past. Just learning and being smart.’’

Even among Rose’s supporters in the media, the general reaction was essentially “Derrick, we know you mean well, but please just stop saying things and play basketball.”

After two and a half years away from the game, Rose has returned with an outspokenness that has caught some off guard. The quiet kid known more for beginning interviews with long “ummm”s than saying anything of substance has now turned off the filter with a touch of the infamous Ricky Watters soundbite “For who? For what?”

Boosted by being Rookie of the Year, youngest MVP ever, and getting to the Conference Finals in Year 3, he was a media darling. But as Rose found out the hard way, the “Hot Take”-driven world of sports doesn’t care what you’ve done before if it doesn’t include a championship. All it took was a lengthy rehab and some poor PR management from all parties involved for Rose to go from next big thing to damaged goods.

Why? Bomani Jones sums it up perfectly in his prescient piece on the athlete so commonly linked to Rose, Robert Griffin:

“Fans watch players, but they love the jerseys they wear. The affection Griffin has received is accentuated by his singularity, but it will disappear if that does nothing for the Redskins, the fans’ true love … They love him? No they love what he can do. And they’ll stop as soon as he doesn’t – or can’t.”

Based on multiple responses to the backlash he received, Rose has shown he understands that. His most detailed reply came via his interview with TNT’s Rachel Nichols:

The replies to that interview in K.C. Johnson’s mentions were mixed, with these among them:

His comments partly caught heat for being interpreted as giving off a sense of superiority. It’s debatable whether that actually exists, but regardless of that, then what are the people knocking his commitment, toughness, resolve, if not all of the above, every time he hits a speed bump along the way? Besides hypocrites, of course.

The main reason he drew vitriol was for violating the sacred unwritten rule of sports fandom: just be quiet because you make a lot of money to play a game. As Carmelo Anthony’s free agency reinforced this summer, an athlete’s reputation is tarnished, often irreparably, for taking the most money available. Winning is the goal, not money, yet that’s exactly how Derrick Rose is operating. By being cautious in regular season games, he’s prioritizing winning a championship, just in a more blatant manner than someone like Chris Paul, who has mastered pacing himself through the season to the point that it suppresses talk of decline in his game.

After years of grinding out games at less than full strength, Rose is now focused on playing when he feels 100%, or something close to it. Luol Deng confirmed as much to Bleacher Report’s Ethan Skolnick:

 “When he first came to the league, me and Joakim [Noah] would always tell him, ‘Derrick, you can’t play tonight. You’re hurt.’ And he always wants to put the team behind him and the city behind him. And even when he was hurt, he would play … he was so determined and wanted to be the best he could be, not only for the team, [but] for the city. And we kept trying to tell him to understand, like, ‘Look, there’s a difference between pain and injury.’ And I think now after two injuries, he’s being smart.”

This Bulls roster (though not their coach) seems to have learned that maxing out in the regular season has bore them little fruit, but when Rose sits out games, the burden of sacrificing money to win championships shifts to the fans. At that point, the facade they give of sacrifice and selflessness crumbles, because playing a game suddenly becomes much more vital when it’s an event the customers paid their own money to see.

Rose is inverting the dynamic between players and fans, something that LeBron James achieved, largely unnoticed, in his return to Cleveland. From the moment his letter in Sports Illustrated was released, the city became putty in his hands all over again, erasing the hatred that resulted from leaving for South Beach in 2010. They fell for his message of “In Northeast Ohio, nothing is given. Everything is earned. You work for what you have,” and that they would build a contender from the ground up. The people came back to flood the arena, all because they know James can bring them that elusive title.

To say Rose and his camp have handled everything perfectly over the years would be incorrect, though as James himself showed us years ago, the burden on a 20-something to live up to expectation for his home team is an entirely unique pressure. While he isn’t in LeBron’s class as a player, the disparity in Chicago’s play with him on and off the floor shows Rose is every bit as important to bringing his team a championship, so there are but limited consequences for what he says. He can only lose so many supporters because bailing on Rose means bailing on the franchise entirely, which is the reason most root for him in the first place and a sacrifice most fans are incapable of making, even though the Bulls are little more than the mascot of a company owned by Jerry Reinsdorf.

And so they’ll put up with him, begrudgingly, for they need Rose far more than he needs them. Joakim Noah spoke vehemently in defense of him, as did Deng and even players who’ve never suited up with him like Dwyane Wade and Mike Miller. His injuries, the resulting criticism, and, most of all, becoming a parent have given him perspective. It’s shown who’s there for him unconditionally as he attempts to deliver a championship for the city that loves him conditionally until he does.

The post They Love Him, They Love Him Not appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

This post has been in the oven for months. I’d perused every recent extension, both in terms of what players of Jimmy Butler’s ilk receive, and how likely it is that he would reach an extension by the Halloween deadline at all. There was also plenty to think about in terms of roster construction. What happens if the Bulls get Carmelo Anthony? Would the Bulls have to choose between Butler and Taj Gibson long-term? Do I care about the luxury tax considering it’s Jerry Reinsdorf’s money?

Well, the answer to that last question is always and forever a resounding “no,” but the new TV deal essentially blew everything to smithereens. No longer do the contracts signed by the likes of Gerald Henderson or Avery Bradley set any sort of precedent in regards to what an impending restricted free agent like Jimmy will earn in 2015 and beyond. While those comparisons are relevant no more, here are the factors that make this negotiation with the Bulls so complex and fascinating:

-Money to Blow

As mentioned, the new TV deal will cause the salary cap to rise, and its corresponding elements like the mid-level exception will rise along with it. The consensus with the extensions that have been reached so far with Orlando’s Nikola Vucevic and Charlotte’s Kemba Walker inking four year, $48 million deals, as well as Denver’s Kenneth Faried, who got just a smidge more, is that they’ll be a bit overpaid at first, and then underpaid following the influx of cap space. Butler is surely looking at those deals, as well as the massive paydays that fellow wings Chandler Parsons and Gordon Hayward fetched over the summer, as a barometer for not only what he could get now, but also what would await him next summer from another team, via an offer sheet the Bulls would have the option of matching.

-A Cautionary Tale

While his Class of 2011 contemporaries locked up deals through the 2018-2019 season, Butler may be wise to take a lesson from Luol Deng’s excursion into free agency. After turning down a take-it-or-leave-it deal from Chicago and finishing out the year in Cleveland, Deng surely expected to hit the jackpot considering the money teams like Dallas, Houston and Atlanta had to spend. He ended up settling for a two year deal with Miami at a touch under $20 million, which in retrospect shouldn’t be that shocking considering it was impossible to read a free agent profile of him that didn’t prominently feature the words “Thibs,” “tread on his tires,” or “heavy minutes.” Right or wrong, Deng’s workload the few years with the Bulls likely affected how teams project his performance for the rest of his career. It’s the only explanation for why a consummate professional and two-way player like Deng, who, believe it or not, isn’t even 30 yet, didn’t get a meatier deal.

Now, if Butler reaches an extension with the Bulls, he’ll hit unrestricted free agency earlier in his career than Deng did, since six year extensions like the one Luol got are a thing of the past, but Jimmy was also much older upon entry to the league. Deng left Duke after just one season, while Butler was 22 by the time his rookie campaign kicked off in 2011. So, if Butler signs a four year contract, that means hitting unrestricted free agency right before his 30th birthday, quite possibly with double the years under Thibs compared to Deng.

-The Upside Play

Butler might be better off copying Parsons, who signed an oddly short contract with Dallas, structured so Houston wouldn’t feel comfortable matching it. Rather than get the maximum four years, Parsons agreed to a three year contract in which he can hit the market again after just two seasons if he chooses. If Butler went that route, not only would he tap into the new TV money sooner, he’d be doing so before his 28th birthday as opposed to his 30th.

It’s obviously risky leaving a whole year’s salary on the table, as well as playing this year out risking injury or poor play, but it could pay off in a huge way. Butler’s value is in question (Grantland’s Zach Lowe stated on his podcast that he has a wager with an executive who is adamant Butler will not receive $10 million per year on his next contract), but as the saying goes, “it only takes one ***hole,” so he has little reason to accept a below-market offer as Taj Gibson did a couple years back. He won’t have any trouble finding a suitor willing to pony up, after which, he’ll be doing this:

-Management’s Side

That Parsons scenario is something the Bulls should be avoiding at all costs and one that gives Fegan leverage because teams crave certainty, and if Butler hits the weekend without putting pen to paper, GarPax will be starting the clock on a very volatile few years. They won’t have control of what Jimmy does next summer, short of the choice to match whatever contract he signs. Joakim Noah is the defending Defensive Player of the Year, but is being managed through a nagging knee injury and will hit free agency in 2016 at age 31. The following summer, Derrick Rose, Pau Gasol, Nikola Mirotic and Gibson can all test the market, as well as Butler if he opts for that shorter deal.

On top of that, it’s unclear how the league will attempt to massage the impending ballooning of the salary  cap. For a team that craves playing it safe, as they prove by bringing back Kirk Hinrich every two years, that’s about as uncertain as it gets and makes the ramifications of roster moves between now and then more difficult to discern.

-Bird Rights and Replacing Jimmy

Barring a turnaround for Tony Snell (not impossible,  but certainly not something to rely on at this point in time), the Bulls simply can’t afford to lose Butler. There were a litany of other factors, but it’s not a coincidence that the Spurs have had more success as Kawhi Leonard matured. In 2012 as a rookie, he wasn’t ready for Kevin Durant and the Spurs were blitzed by a more athletic team in the Western Conference Finals. The next year, Kawhi was intermittently brilliant, and they were a carom off the rim from the title. Last year, Leonard claimed Finals MVP as the Spurs topped Durant and LeBron in back-to-back series. Until further notice, any team that seeks to win the title will likely have to go through one or both of those two, and Butler is one of the very few defenders in the league capable of making life difficult for them.

Also, the Bulls have enough money on the books that they would only have the mid-level exception to replace Butler next summer, as teams are allowed to exceed the salary cap to keep their own players (via Bird Rights), but not to add players from other teams.

The situation is comparable to a stance ESPN’s Colin Cowherd likes to take. His claim is that, in the NFL, Houston’s J.J. Watt is severely overpaid because quarterbacks that make the type of money Watt does would never have 2-14 seasons like the Texans did in 2013. What Cowherd misses (or chooses to ignore for entertainment’s sake) is that Houston doesn’t have the option of acquiring one of those quarterbacks. Their choice isn’t Watt vs Star QB X, it’s Watt vs the players they would have to overpay in free agency.

So, sure, it may not make sense in the grand scheme of things to match a max deal for Butler, but the question becomes: What’s the alternative? In 2015, it would be paying a marginal player the mid-level exception to join a wing rotation of Doug McDermott, Hinrich and Snell (Mike Dunleavy is also a free agent next year). In the years to follow, going back to the inflated salary cap, every caliber of player will see a pay hike, so Butler in his prime in the $14-16 million range will be a better investment than the likes of a past-their-prime Jeff Green or Corey Brewer making eight figures.

-On the Court

All of this long-term talk does slightly obscure that this year really is the time for the Bulls. It will take time for LeBron James and coach David Blatt to instill defensive habits into Kevin Love and Kyrie Irving, plus the pieces will simply take a while to gel. On offense, there is too much talent to not be extraordinary, especially by the time the playoffs roll around, however, for the LeBron super teams in Miami, it was defense that became their calling card early on, not offense. These Cavs don’t have anywhere close to the defensive personnel that those Heat did, as Dwyane Wade was a terror on that end when engaged, and Chris Bosh’s length on defense is something Love isn’t capable of matching regardless of how committed he becomes. If the Cavs become a good defensive team, it will come through chemistry and familiarity, which players themselves admit can take years.

As for the West, it’s hard to envision Oklahoma City, the Clippers, or even San Antonio themselves matching the blend of symphonic basketball and emotional investment of last year’s Spurs, still smarting from letting the 2013 title slip away in agonizing fashion.

The Bulls are by no means favorites, but this likely represents the best shot they’ll get to win it all. Sure, LeBron is about to turn 30, but so are Noah and Gibson. Signing Butler now prevents any sort of need for Butler to get his own stats to prove his offensive bonafides to teams, thus hurting the flow of the offense.

-Team Fit

I was certainly a vocal critic of the Bulls cashing in so may assets to acquire McDermott, but he appears to be the real deal, which is huge for Butler. Having Deng and Butler together was a mismatched pair, as they didn’t complement each other. With McDermott though, if Jimmy never develops his offensive game past being a below-average shooter and a good rebounder who can attack the basket and get to the line, that’s enough. The Bulls finally project to have a balanced lineup for the first time in the Rose Era. Hinrich remains a fly in the ointment, but Chicago should be able to finish games with Rose, Noah, Butler, McDermott and the power forward of their choosing for the foreseeable future.

That future hangs in the balance though, because there’s less than 48 hours left for the Bulls and the 48 Minute Man.

The post Pay the Man? The Many Factors of Jimmy Butler’s Contract Negotiations appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

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Before we go any further, I feel that I should make sure you all know how much I love Jimmy Butler. My love for Jimmy rivals even my love for Derrick Rose, which is saying something. So if you’re expecting me to excoriate Jimmy for his failings, you’re in the wrong place.

That said, I am willing to acknowledge his shortcomings. The fact is that Jimmy’s shooting percentages are borderline horrific this year. 39.2 percent from the field and 27.9 percent from three ain’t gonna get the job done. His jumper seems to have abandoned him right around the time that he returned from his turf toe injury in December, along with a decent portion of his ability to finish at the rim. My theory is that the turf toe lingered for a while after he came back and robbed him of his lift, which compromised his finishing ability and threw off his jumper.

If that’s the case, I think a summer off should give him the chance to find his rhythm again and get back to the version of him that shot 38 percent from three in 2012-13. But we’ll see.

Of course, that doesn’t help much for this year. This year, the Bulls desperately need Jimmy to have a chance to win. He is by FAR the best perimeter defender on the team — though obviously that gap will shrink somewhat if the Bulls do indeed sign Ronnie Brewer, as has been rumored — and his ability and willingness to step into Luol Deng’s role has been a major factor in the Bulls’ surge since the beginning of 2014. Not only that, but Jimmy’s had to step up as a secondary ball-handler on offense without Deng around, since Mike Dunleavy isn’t much of one and Tony Snell isn’t really ready for extended minutes yet. Since the Deng trade, the Bulls are 5.3 points per 100 possessions better than their opponents when Jimmy plays and 0.2 points per 100 possessions worse than their opponents when he sits. In that time frame, the Bulls get outscored per 100 possessions when Jimmy sits and when Joakim Noah sits. That’s it.

So, the dilemma mentioned in the headline is simple: The Bulls are relying heavily on a guy who really can’t shoot — though he is shooting 43.3 percent from the corners, which is something, at least — on a team full of guys who can’t shoot, going into a potential second-round showdown against two of the best defenses in the league in Miami and Indiana. And that assumes they even get out of the first round, which is far from a given. Right now, the Bulls would face the Brooklyn Nets in the first round, who pushed the Bulls to seven games last year and are operating at a borderline championship level since the beginning of 2014. They have the league’s 11th best offense and the 10th best defense in that span, so let’s not pretend that the Bulls will have it easy.

So what can they do about it? Not a whole hell of a lot. The fact is that they need Jimmy to be successful. But there are some subtle things that should help. I hated Tom Thibodeau’s insistence on playing Derrick Rose and Kirk Hinrich together to start the season — and the numbers bore me out on that, just for the record — but Kirk’s been playing much better since the new year, and as such the Bulls have had quite a bit of success playing DJ Augustin and Kirk together. In fact, the Bulls preferred closing lineup of DJ, Kirk, Jimmy, Taj Gibson and Noah is lighting people up since Deng was traded. They’re scoring 109.8 points per 100 and giving up 91.2, for a net rating of +18.6. That’s pretty good.

It’s not hard to puzzle out why, either. DJ is the playmaker/penetrator the Bulls don’t otherwise have, Kirk provides shooting and acts as a secondary ballhandler, Jimmy fills in wherever he’s needed without shouldering too much of a burden, and Taj and Noah do their thing. So while Jimmy hasn’t been able to hit anything this year, it seems like having success with him comes down as much to context as much as anything.

So while we will hope that Jimmy remembers how to shoot, maybe it’s not the end of the world?

(If the Bulls lose at some point because Jimmy missed too many shots or something, forget I wrote this.)

The post The Jimmy Butler Dilemma appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

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ESPN.com recently embarked on a mission to rank front offices in the NBA. The Chicago Bulls came in fifth overall, with Tom Thibodeau ranked second amongst coaches, GM/President combo Gar Foreman and John Paxson coming in 14th amongst executives, and owner Jerry Reinsdorf ranking ninth amongst owners.

That Thibs would come in behind only Gregg Popovich doesn’t surprise me, nor does GarPax being considered middle-of-the-pack. What does surprise me is Mr. Reinsdorf’s place.

I have, in any number of contexts, expressed my annoyance with Mr. Reinsdorf. His general unwillingness to spend a single cent more than he absolutely has to on the Bulls drives me nuts, especially when it manifests itself in things like the dismantling of the bench from the 2011-12 team. And when he says things like how basketball is a game while baseball is religion, I want to tear my hair out. That he’s considered the ninth best owner in the NBA is mildly incredible to me.

But that doesn’t change the fact that Mr. Reinsdorf isn’t a terrible owner. He isn’t the worst owner in history, nor is he close. And it’s important to keep that in mind. Peter Holt, he ain’t. But he also isn’t Donald Sterling or even Dan Gilbert. He isn’t meddlesome, and he does have some ability to ignore the bottom line if he thinks it will help the team. Witness last season, when he was willing to hold on to Rip Hamilton at the trade deadline and pay the luxury tax rather than send out a first round draft pick, which would’ve hurt the team down the road. And he was all set to pay the tax this season, even reaching into the coffers for Mike Dunleavy, until … well, you know.

If you want to hate him, that’s your business. I’m not going to tell you he hasn’t done frustrating things. And there are plenty of organizational issues — like the fact that the Bulls seem to bad-mouth all their players on the way out the door, to name one — which concern me quite a bit and which I believe start from the top. But he’s not a terrible person, and he’s far from a terrible owner.

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When the Chicago Bulls were on the clock back in June 2013, with the 20th pick of the draft, I expected them to take a big man. I was hoping for Gorgui Dieng. Instead, they opted for another wing, that being Tony Snell.

If you follow me on Twitter, or if you’ve read much of my work here at BbtH or elsewhere, you’ve probably noticed that I have a certain fondness for younger players. I have, at various times, sung the praises of Jimmy Butler (good), Malcolm Thomas (jury’s still out) and Marquis Teague (not good, though I haven’t given up hope yet). This year, minus a brief affair with Jarvis Varnado, the main target for my affection — besides Jimmy, obviously — has been Snell, though that has as much to do with the relative lack of young guys on the Bulls this year as my actual love of Mr. Snell.

The early returns have been … mixed. On one hand, Snell already has played three times as many minutes this season as Jimmy did in his — admittedly lockout-shortened — rookie season, so he’s clearly doing something right if Tom Thibodeau is willing to play him. On the other hand, he’s been shooting right around 40 percent from the field all season and currently sits at 38.4 from the field and 32.9 from deep. That’s not great, especially for a guy who was always billed as a shooter.

But on the other hand, the Bulls perform much better this season when Snell isn’t on the floor, scoring just 94.7 points per 100 possessions when he plays and 100.7 when he doesn’t. But on the other hand, Snell features prominently in the Bulls single best five-man unit this season by net rating: DJ Augustin, Snell, Mike Dunleavy, Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah have outscored their opponents by 34.2 points per 100 possessions this season in approximately 62 minutes. That’s the fifth-best five-man unit in the NBA by net rating this season by a lineup playing 50 or more minutes. So again, he must be doing something right.

I believe Snell can be the answer at shooting guard for the Bulls. Not this year, necessarily, but going forward. Of course, attempting to justify this feeling has proven difficult to this point, so I went on a quest to find the evidence I needed. Let’s dive in.*

*Owing to the simple fact that we only have so much data on Snell in the NBA, assume that all numbers cited in this piece come with an implied “in a very small sample size,” attached.

Offense

As stated above, Snell’s reputation coming into the league was that of a knockdown shooter. This has not yet materialized. At least, that’s what you’d think if you just looked at the shooting numbers I cited earlier.

If you drill down a little deeper, you find those stats come with two significant caveats. Number one, Snell’s overall shooting percentage gets dragged down hard because he’s taken well over half of his shots from three point land. According to Basketball-Reference, Snell has attempted 155 threes this year and just 139 twos. He’s shooting 32.9 percent on threes, as mentioned above, but is making 44.6 percent of his twos. That includes a 42.6 percent mark (20/47) on long twos, defined by B-R as from 16 to 23 feet, as well as a 59.5 percent mark (25/42) at the rim. The simple fact is that Snell’s struggles from deep have submarined his overall shooting numbers thanks to his sky-high three point rate.

This brings me to my next caveat: Keep in mind that this is Snell’s first season in the NBA, and that threes in college are slightly shorter than NBA threes. So for all that Snell was a 39 percent shooter from three in his last year of college, it’s a little unreasonable to expect that to translate immediately. Furthermore, even a cursory look at his shot would tell you that there’s nothing broken there. This isn’t a Marquis Teague situation, or even Michael Kidd-Gilchrist, where the shot just looks wrong to begin with. I have faith that Snell will stretch himself out over the course of the next year or two, especially if his long two numbers are any indicator.

This is only tangentially related, but I’m going to talk about it anyway. According to MySynergySports, while Snell is only shooting about 29 percent on spot up threes in the half court, he is shooting 50 percent on threes in transition. I can’t confirm this, but I’m going to say it anyway: my theory is that Snell is more than capable of shooting a high percentage on threes … when he’s wide freaking open. Watching Snell’s transition attempts, virtually every single one of them comes in rhythm, with no defenders in sight. The reality of the Bulls offense is that halfcourt attempts don’t come with nearly those same luxuries. But again, I think that will come with time.

Now, having established my belief that Snell will become an elite shooter, let’s talk about why he’s the answer at shooting guard: playmaking.

Snell is not, nor in all likelihood will he ever be, anything like an elite isolation player. However, that’s not what the Bulls need, as long as we assume that Derrick Rose is healthy and we’re going to assume that because I refuse to think otherwise. What Snell can do, however, is function as a secondary ballhandler on the weak side.

Let’s start with his work in the pick and roll. Synergy says he scores about 0.71 points per play when handling the ball in the pick and roll, which isn’t great. However, when you watch him — and I have — you notice a few things about him. First, Snell shoots a TON of jumpers out of the pick and roll, and he shoots even more when you add in dribble handoffs, which Synergy classifies separately. I’m going to guess about a third of his pick and roll possessions result in pull-up jumpers. Now, the numbers the NBA provides from the SportVU optical tracking cameras say Snell shoots 40.4 percent on pull-ups this year, which isn’t that much worse than Steph Curry, for whatever that’s worth. So considering that most defenses will go under screens against Snell and that he’s hitting those shots at a decent clip, it’s far from the worst shot in the world.

Having said that, it’s when Snell gets into the lane that he’s most impressive. I mentioned his 59.5 percent mark at the rim earlier, so he’s capable of finishing. He’s also flashed a nice hesitation move a few times to get into the lane, which isn’t something you see from a lot of rookies. But he’s also a great passer, and he seems to have figured out how to draw the help from the big man at the rim before dropping a pass off for a dunk. He and Taj Gibson have flashed some nice chemistry with the pick and pop leading to Taj getting an open jumper on the baseline.

Even outside of the pick and roll, Snell shows decent playmaking skills on his own. He’s proven adept at attacking hard closeouts and either scoring or finding his teammates, as the Orlando Magic found out back in January.

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His vision generally is impressive for such a young player. And while his handle isn’t anything to write home about, it’s competent.

Basically, I see Snell as the type who can spot up on the weak side of a Rose-Noah pick and roll, and then either shoot or drive out of the spot up, or run a quick-hitting pick and roll of his own after a ball-reversal. That’s one of the many reasons that the San Antonio Spurs have been so good the last several years. The ability to reverse the ball and put pressure on the defense is huge, and Snell can do that.

Defense

There’s not a whole lot to be said about Snell’s defense that hasn’t been said since the draft. He’s long but skinny, so he’ll get beat in the post by bigger wings. He has trouble staying in front of quicker guys too, which means there really aren’t too many players he can be reasonably expected to stop on a regular basis.

That said, you can see the potential. If he puts on weight, he easily could guard the Joe Johnson and Carmelo Anthony types that aren’t much of a threat to beat him off the dribble. He has some trouble staying down on pump fakes, but that — hopefully — will come with experience. He does have quick hands, but doesn’t seem to be able to take full advantage of them just yet.

Off the ball, he still gets lost occasionally, but you can see glimpses of the anticipation that a guy like Jimmy Butler has in terms of jumping passing lanes. He won’t ever be nearly as good as Jimmy at that, I suspect — I mean, who could be? — but he’ll be OK, I think.

Hopefully, another year or two at Thibs Academy, with Jimmy as his erstwhile mentor, should give Snell the tools to be a solid defender down the road, if not better.

Other

There’s not a whole lot else to cover here. Snell’s by no means a tremendous rebounder, but he’s not terrible. On a team like the Bulls, that’s a fairly superfluous skill anyway.

The main thing Snell has going for him is what I’ve been calling his “feel for the game,” for lack of any better terms. He hasn’t adjusted 100 percent to the speed of the NBA, so you’ll see him occasionally make a pass he shouldn’t because he saw something a little too late to take advantage of it. But I choose to be pleased he saw it at all, and as I mentioned earlier, he seems to understand the cause-and-effect relationship inherent in getting into the lane and drawing help defense. That’s a big deal for a young player, and one that will serve him well going forward.

One final thing, if I may: I know there was some consternation back in June and earlier in the season that the Bulls took Snell over Tim Hardaway Jr., and while THJ certainly has shot better this year — 42.9/37.3/83.0 to Snell’s 38.4/32.9/75.8 — Hardaway has yet to show anything other than scoring ability. He barely rebounds (3.9% total rebound rate to Snell’s 5.9), doesn’t create for others (1.3 assists per 36 minutes) and isn’t very good defensively. THJ has been very good by any objective measure, but give me the more complete player over the long term.

Now, if Snell can just get his celebration game together, he’ll be just fine.

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The post The Case for Tony Snell appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

1. What are your thoughts on the story this week about Noah recruiting Carmelo Anthony?

Peter Owen: Noah’s non-denial of the conversation – via a great teenage girl impression – at least confirms the talks happened. Whether they were talking about it at length with Noah strongly selling the city and the team or if it was a simple passing comment forgotten about minutes later, we’ll never know.

Braedan Ritter: I am all for the Bulls doing everything they can to bring in another scorer for their offense. If that means turning All-Star weekend into a recruiting convention, that’s awesome. With that being said, I don’t really buy it. I’m sure they talked. They probably talked about playing for Thibodeau (with Thibs being connected to the Knicks) but I don’t think it went far beyond that. And despite what some people are saying ‘Melo would fit in with the Bulls.

Caleb Nordgren: I refer you exclusively to the comments Joakim himself made on the subject. Particularly his excellent teenage girl impression.

Trenton Jocz: I think it’s just another indicator of how much Noah is the leader on the team. It’s not often in the NBA that the best player isn’t the main leader, at least on really good teams, but we know that’s not really Derrick Rose’s personality and that there’s a big brother/little brother relationship there. Regardless of what they were actually talking about, it also shows that Noah feels OK talking to Melo. Rivalries are overblown in sports, but I find it much harder to imagine Noah having similar conversations with impending free agents like LeBron or Lance Stephenson.

Avi Saini: If this is true I’m glad to see Noah being proactive and trying to get guys to finally come to Chicago. It doesn’t matter if you’re an NBA player or some average person walking the streets, everyone wants to feel wanted and Noah’s actions could give Melo that feeling. That being said I doubt it helps Chicago’s chances of landing him. As Ken Berger pointed out, Chicago would have to make some big moves and Melo would have to be willing to take a $45 million discount on what should be his last major contract if the two want the marriage even get off the ground. Given both of these requirements it just doesn’t seem likely Noah’s conversation will make a difference.

2. Tony Snell has fallen out of the rotation somewhat lately. Why?

PO: Snell has played well in fits and bursts in a system notoriously unkind to rookies. Jimmy Butler didn’t play often in his rookie year and I suspect Thibodeau’s treatment of Snell continues the decision of trusting his veterans.

BR: Because Tom Thibodeau has set his sights on the next player he wants to run into the ground, so everyone else catches a break? Snell’s totals were all down in February, but his shooting numbers actually improved. My guess is it has to do with Thibs just trusting Dunleavy and Butler more.

CN: I wrote about this a little while ago, but it’s pretty clear at this point that Thibs just doesn’t trust him that much. Thibs is all about being at the right place at the right time all the time on defense and I don’t think Snell is there yet. That said, Snell’s already played almost three times as many minutes as Jimmy Butler did his first season, so that we’re even talking about his falling out of the rotation is something of an achievement.

TJ: Because as we saw with Jimmy Butler before him, Thibs only plays inexperienced players when forced to by injury. It’s his biggest flaw as a coach in my opinion. Snell’s ideal playing time would be about 10-16 minutes, which wouldn’t require more than a role with the second unit. It’s obviously an arbitrary endpoint, but Snell has fallen in that range just four times. For perspective, he has 11 games with at least 34 minutes and 16 games with seven minutes or less. Snell and Jimmer Fredette are useful players in bit roles and I think Thibs would be better served playing the long game and finding them consistent roles to get more comfortable. Of course Thibs doesn’t trust them because he hasn’t put them in position to earn it in the first place. It’s a self-fulfilling prophecy.

AS: Snell thus far has been pretty decent for Chicago, but he’s impacting Chicago’s game negatively by almost every measure. With Snell on the floor the team has a lower field goal percentage, scores 7 fewer points per game, turn the ball over more, get fewer rebounds, and get fewer assists. And that’s just the basic stats. This isn’t to vilify Snell. For a rookie he’s looked good and there are things about his game to like. But that’s just the thing… he’s a rookie. Thibodeau’s system is arguably one of the hardest to learn in the entire league (his former players are on record saying as such) so it’s no shock that Snell isn’t playing out of his mind. He’s just going through his growing pains and he’ll be in the rotation soon enough.

3. What team would the Bulls face in your ideal playoff scenario?

PO: If it were possible, the Knicks. They may well sneak in ahead of the flailing Pistons or slumping Hawks. I expect it to be a rematch of last year’s first round with Brooklyn with a similar result. The worst first round opponent would likely be Washington. The Wizards have played the Bulls very well thanks to two athletic guards whom the Bulls have had no answer for. Also, Nene has played very well against the Bulls frontcourt this season.

BR: Ideally, the Knicks or Sixers. But of the teams that could actually make it…I don’t think any team other than the Heat and Pacers should knock the Bulls out, so I don’t really have an ideal matchup. Brooklyn is probably the biggest threat of the other playoff teams because they have a lot of talent that may be able to figure it out for a seven-game series, but a spare-parts Bulls team knocked Brooklyn out last year and is 2-1 against a more talented (and older) Nets team this season.

CN: In the first round? Probably Atlanta, though that’s looking somewhat unlikely at the moment. I definitely do not want Washington in the first round if at all possible, however. After that, you basically have to face Miami and indiana in some order, so it’s pretty whatever. I think, based on their recent play, you probably want Indiana first, but I’m not sure it matters that much.

TJ: Honestly, I think I’d like them to slide down, face Toronto, and lose in the first round. As fun as last year’s run was, I’d rather not see them lose to Miami again or Indiana, and it would save Jo and Jimmy a lot of wear and tear. As far as I’m concerned, winning a title is the goal, and grinding Jimmy to a pulp with 48 minute nights against Joe Johnson, DeMar DeRozan or Bradley Beal, and then LeBron or Paul George has more costs than benefits. Another miracle run would be fun, but last year will tide me over for the time being.

AS: Any team that sets Chicago up to avoid Miami in the second round. I know Chicago won’t win a title this year but if they’re going to make the playoffs I want them to have as deep a run as possible. And the only way that happens is by avoiding Miami for as long as possible. This isn’t a knock on the Pacers who field a good team, but they don’t have Lebron James.

4. Name the two teams you think will reach the Finals

PO: Can’t pick against Miami when LeBron James is capable of scoring 61 points against good defense. The West truly is wild. Right now I’d go with Oklahoma City though I like how Houston have been playing lately. The Spurs are always a contender and you can pick from Dallas, Portland and of course Los Angeles to put together a run too. A lot could depend on the match-ups.

BR: I’m not betting against the Heat until they give me a reason to, but the Pacers will give them a fight for the East’s spot. On the other side, I think a healthy Thunder squad would have the best shot. Although I’d love to see Tim Duncan and the Spurs make it again for a rematch of last season’s Finals.

CN: Miami and OKC. You could replace OKC with three or four other West teams and I wouldn’t be surprised, but KD and Russ should be the favorites. And Indy’s fallen off recently, but they do always play Miami tough, so they wouldn’t shock me either. But if I have to put money on it, I gotta go with a Heat-Thunder rematch.

TJ: Before the season I picked Bulls/Rockets, which changed to Heat/Rockets once Derrick Rose got hurt, and I’m sticking with that. I like the Rockets because I figured they would need time to gel just like Miami did in Year 1, but that by playoff time they’d be rolling and that’s how it’s shaping up. I’d like to see San Antonio get one more shot, but they’re 0-3 against both Houston and OKC, and they’ve already lost all four home games against them. As for Miami, I thought three grueling series would be too tall a task for a team already worn out by three straight Finals trips. However, now that Indiana is their only obstacle in the East, I think they’ll muster enough to win the title again.

AS: If I’m picking off of performance right now, Miami and Oklahoma City. Durant is playing out of his mind and barring any injuries the team will only get better as Westbrook gets back into groove. With how Indiana’s offense, primarily Paul George, has fallen back to Earth I think Miami just has the edge over the Pacers. If Indiana can get back to playing the offense they did at the beginning of the season, then I think they have everything it takes to knock Miami out in 6 games to get into the finals.

5. Who should win the MVP trophy this season?

PO: I think Kevin Durant will win it thanks to a combination of his stellar play and voter fatigue. That said, I feel like LeBron’s physical dominance will ensure the race comes down to just a few votes. Of course, either player could run off four or five consecutive 40-point nights before the end of the season and streak off into the distance.

BR: LeBron James is the best player in the league, but Kevin Durant has had the best season. That could very well change over the remainder of the year, but Durant has the Thunder on top of the West in a season that Russell Westbrook has missed 30 of their 62 games.

CN: I have no idea. Obviously it’s either KD or LeBron, but I can’t decide. Flip a coin, I guess. It’s hard to go wrong.

TJ: It’s obviously razor-thin between LeBron and Durant, and right now it’s too close to call for me. I’d lean towards LeBron for a couple reasons. The first is that while Durant stepped his game up with Russell Westbrook sidelined, LeBron’s had to do that all season with how Miami is managing Dwyane Wade’s knees. The other reason is when looking at Miami’s roster, it’s clear that OKC is more talented. Considering Ray Allen and Shane Battier aren’t playing near as well, how many really good players do they have? Mario Chalmers or Chris Andersen might be their third best player on nights where Wade sits. If Miami passes Indy for home-court I imagine LeBron becomes a near lock to win yet again.

AS: I think Kevin Durant should win MVP. Lebron has been great but Durant has been every bit as good with a bit more consistency (Lebron has coasted a bit). It can honestly go either way but I also am choosing Durant because I like to be right and I think he’ll get the award mostly because he deserves it and partially because of voter fatigue.

The post 5-on-5: Melo to Chicago, Finals projections, MVP picks. appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Welcome to the latest Bulls by the Horns 5-on-5. Five of our writers will answer five Bulls-related questions. In this edition, we touch on post-season awards, Tom Thibodeau’s future and Carlos Boozer’s media comments.

1. What does Carlos Boozer’s words to the media this week say about his future?

Peter Owen: It probably doesn’t do much to change his future – he will become another victim of the amnesty clause this summer – but it does point to Boozer’s belief that the final 32 games of the season are his chance to prove his worth to whoever will pick him up off the waiver wire this summer. He still has a few serviceable years left and there are teams out there who could use another big man.

Eric Nehm: I don’t know if it necessarily has a large impact on Boozer’s future. It has been rumored for a while that the Bulls are planning on using their amnesty on Boozer this offseason and I obviously don’t know if that is their plan, but it does seem like a logical next step for the Bulls as they try to figure out how to assemble a championship team without Luol Deng. So, if anything, his words to the media this week might have just solidified his future.

Avi Saini: I touched on this in the BbtH podcast with Caleb (Listen here), but I’ll go over it again. Boozer sitting at the end of games is nothing new and seemingly hasn’t been a problem before. So why speak up now? To me there’s really only one reasoning- he knows he’s gone. I believe Boozer may view the rest of this season as a tryout for other teams. By playing the end of games, and showing he’s effective at the end of games, it inflates his value which means teams would be willing to pay him more cash.

Kevin Ferrigan: I don’t think it changes things much. I’ve always appreciated that Carlos didn’t complain about being benched in the 4th quarters of games, so I’m a little bummed that he started to complain now, but I think the Bulls will do with him whatever they planned prior to his comments. They won’t have much of an effect.

Trenton Jocz: Nothing in the sense that they don’t tip the scales on anything. He’s probably already gone this summer, and if Jerry Reinsdorf is too cheap to amnesty him, these comments won’t single-handedly convince him to fork over the money. What he said isn’t even that bad or uncommon. The part I had a problem with was the part where he said the team loses most games he doesn’t finish. That’s not because he was wrong (plenty of athletes and people in general twist narratives in their head to feel better about themselves), but rather because he essentially said the difference between him and Taj costs them games, which is a pretty big slap in the face to a teammate.

2. Mark Deeks wrote an article this week stating Taj Gibson has a clause in his contract paying him an extra $250,000 if he is named to the NBA All-defensive second team. Will he make the team?

PO: Given the glut of defensive studs in the NBA and the very limited space on the All-Defensive rosters Taj will most likely miss out. He is one of the best defensive big men in the NBA and is on an incredibly cheap contract which will only look better once he moves into the starting lineup next season and continues to develop his offensive game.

EN: No. Gibson is certainly deserving, but I think his teammate Joakim Noah will make it very difficult for him to garner such recognition. Voters have had no problem rewarding teammates as teammates have been featured somewhere on the first or second team every season since the inception of All-Defensive teams in 1968-69. Gibson’s candidacy will be hurt by Noah because voters may not be willing to reward Gibson since they see too much overlap in the skills and contributions of both players as well as Gibson’s more limited minutes (28.7 mpg) because of Noah’s presence in the middle.

AS: Unfortunately, no. Both All-Defensive teams traditionally feature 2 guards, 2 forwards, and a center for a total of 10 spots (on some occasions more if there is a tie for the first team). Because he plays as both a PF and C, Gibson technically can qualify for 6 of the spots. Once you eliminate him from the running for center (behind guys like Noah, Gasol, Chandler, Howard, Hibbert, etc) that drops to 4 possible spots. Taking away a spot for guys like Serge Ibaka, Paul George, and Lebron James (all locks to make it) that leaves 1 spot for grabs. While Gibson is a great, deserving defender, I think he gets overlooked.

KF: He really should. He’s such a beast. He and Joakim are absolute freaks with their ability to successfully guard perimeter players on switches while also protecting the rim incredibly effectively. I can’t think of many power forwards in the league who are better overall defensively, so I could definitely see him making it.

TJ: For a couple of reasons, I feel pretty safe in saying that he won’t. First, voters will give Joakim Noah a lot of support, and a .500 team simply won’t get enough attention to warrant a second candidate. Also, to reach that incentive, he’d need be in the top four forwards for votes. Paul George and Serge Ibaka are locks. So is LeBron James, despite attention being drawn to a down year by his standards. That leaves one spot that I’d guess begins a long run of selections for Anthony Davis, or Andre Iguodala depending on if he’s deemed a guard or a forward. It should also be stated that Taj’s omission will be fair, as he plays significantly fewer minutes than his contemporaries.

3. Derrick Rose has started practicing again and, predictably, the media are talking about his potential to return ahead of schedule. Will he, and should he?

PO: There may be increasing chatter about an early return this season but as we have seen with the Rose camp previously, they won’t take the risk. If last season’s surprisingly good team wasn’t good enough to inspire a comeback, this certainly can’t.

EN: He won’t and he shouldn’t. I know the backlash he received from fans last time was probably a bit annoying, but I just don’t see how someone who has gone through the injury process already would willingly rush back onto the floor. Last time, it took Rose a significant amount of time to feel comfortable moving around on the floor when returning from injury and I expect much of the same this time around.

AS: I don’t believe Rose will come back earlier even if he has the option. He and his camp have played it safe in the past and there’s nothing to suggest they’ll opt to approach things differently this time around. Nor should he/they. Think back to Russell Westbrook’s situation. Rose said he should take his time returning to the game, Westbrook ignored him, returned, and subsequently was on the sidelines again with inflammation in his surgically repaired knee. Waiting that extra bit of time, even if cleared, does no harm. It just assures that Rose will be 100% ready.

KF: He won’t. I don’t know if he should. I don’t want to think about it. The whole situation just makes me sad.

TJ: No, he won’t because if last year’s team wasn’t worth returning for, this iteration that lacks Luol Deng and Nate Robinson certainly isn’t. He shouldn’t because this time around he gets to participate in Team USA Olympic practices. Even if he isn’t close enough to 100% to make the World Championship team, those workouts will provide the kind of floor time prior to training camp and preseason that would have helped him knock off the rust and lack of rhythm that dogged him in this regular season prior to his meniscus tear.

4. Talk has been constant this season of Tom Thibodeau being poached by the Knicks this summer. How much credibility do you give that scenario?

PO: Not too much. I think given the friction between Thibodeau and the front office lends the rumors a certain air of believability but the real problem is the lack of draw to the Knicks. Assuming Thibodeau did want to leave, what reason would he have to go to a team lacking in future draft picks, tradable assets, adequate defenders and potentially no superstar if Carmelo leaves.

EN:I understand that Tom Thibodeau’s fit with Chicago might not be the best anymore, but I just don’t see how the Knicks are able to pry him away from the Bulls. The Knicks have NO assets going forward and nothing that the Bulls might value. Unless the Knicks are willing to give the Bulls a whole lot of cash, I’m just not sure what the Bulls would be willing to accept from the Knicks for Thibodeau’s services.

AS: None. I’ve been vocal that I believe that the Bulls will part with Thibodeau soon because of the clash between him and the front office, but I don’t believe he’s going to New York for a second. Not unless the Knicks have a first round pick they can offer Chicago.

KF: Zero credibility. Thibodeau may be unhappy with the front office, and he certainly has a few good reasons, but the Knicks have nothing of value to offer the Bulls in exchange for Coach Thibs, who is under contract, as they’ve dealt all their picks seemingly in perpetuity, and Thibodeau would be very sad coaching that horrible mess of a roster.

TJ: None. If Thibs has problems with Chicago’s management, he’d have even more with New York’s. While his coaching mentality might be shortsighted at times, he’s anything but stupid. If really he wants out of Chicago, there’s worse things than playing out your contract with the asset-rich Bulls during Rose and Noah’s primes, then getting to be the best candidate on the market in a couple years. He’d have teams lining up for him, among them potentially a reloaded Lakers team and a few of the currently-rebuilding franchises that in a couple years will have a young superstar or two ready to contend for the next decade.

5. We’re halfway through the season. Who is the team’s MVP thus far?

PO: The majority will say Joakim Noah and rightly so. However, I’m going to go for the man behind the machine: Tom Thibodeau. Noah is the on-court manifestation of Thibodeau’s philosophy – play hard, defend well, make the smart offensive play. His schemes and strategies do not care for the ability of the players on the roster, a fact we knew before this season but one that has been driven home emphatically with the likes of D.J. Augustin and Mike Dunleavy seamlessly transitioning into the defense. It also speaks volumes that not a single player who has arrived in Chicago under Thibodeau has refused to buy in to his message.

EN:Joakim Noah. Noah is one of my favorite players in the league, so I may be a bit biased, but I don’t think there is anyone else in the conversation for Bulls MVP thus far. Noah has held this team together amid a season full of turmoil and he is finally getting all of the attention he has deserved for a long time.

AS: Standard answers here will say Joakim Noah and/or Tom Thibodeau and those are 100% correct answers. But I’m going to go full hipster and say DJ Augustin. Chicago’s point guard situation is abysmal. Kirk Hinrich? Seriously? Augustin has run the point beautifully for Chicago and provided a scoring option and been the reason Chicago has won a good number of games. Augustin has scored in double digits in 21 of his 30 games with Chicago and Chicago is 14-7 when he’s scored in double digits (two of the losses coming against OKC and a one-point loss to Orlando). PS- Come at me Hinrich stans.

KF: Joakim Noah, because obviously.

TJ: If this were strictly about play on the court, Taj Gibson might have an argument, but when you consider all of the other factors in this lost season, it has to be Joakim Noah. Certain players demand excellence from their teammates and compel everyone else to sustain a level of both professionalism and passion. Noah has sustained this team through Rose’s injury, the Luol Deng trade and the daily grind of a season they no longer have a chance of capping with a title. There’s only a few players in the entire league capable of doing that. Then, to cement his case, add in that he’s their defensive anchor, capable of defending in space and that he functions as an offensive hub at the top of the key.

The post 5-on-5: Taking a look at the latest news, rumors and awards appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

After a solid rookie season, in which he started 70 of the Bulls’ 82 games, Taj Gibson settled into a role on the bench for Chicago in his sophomore season and hasn’t left that position in the last three years.  Gibson became a valuable asset for the team as he headlined strong bench units that blitzed teams defensively and managed to get by offensively.  After remaining stagnant for much of the last three seasons, Gibson has made some improvements offensively and is averaging over ten points a game for the first time in his career.

Gibson’s offensive development has been a pleasant surprise and one of the constants for a team mired in a turbulent season that has featured new lineups because of both injuries and trades.  After averaging between 7.1 and 9 points per game in his first four seasons, Gibson is averaging 12.5 points per game this season.  Not surprisingly, Gibson is taking more shots each game this season, which can be typical of a player scoring points at a career pace per game.  Though this is helpful, it does not give us an accurate representation of the improvements Gibson has made.   To truly understand why Gibson has been more successful, we need to take a closer look at two things: Gibson’s shooting and assisted basket profiles.

One of the reasons for Gibson’s success this season on the offense end is his improved midrange shooting and shot selection.  For a helpful comparison, let’s take a look at Gibson’s shooting accuracy both last season and this season.  Last season, Gibson made 32 of his 90 shots from what we’ll term the “short midrange” for a shooting percentage of 35.6%.  For the most part, he shot these at a level below league average excluding “short midrange” shots in the middle of the floor, which he shot over 50%.

Now, if we take a look at Gibson this season, Gibson has made 47 of his 122 shots from this “short midrange” area for a shooting percentage of 38.5%.  A few things should stick out.  The first is obviously the amount of shots that Gibson has taken from this area in the last two seasons.  Gibson has already taken 32 more shots from this area in just 47 games (stats taken before Phoenix game on February 4) compared to the 65 games it took for him to amass 90 shots from that area last season.  The second thing that you should see is a shooting percentage three percentage points higher.  Gibson is not just taking more shots, but he’s also making the shots he’s taking from those spots on the floor at a higher percentage.

If we move out a bit further and take a look at Gibson’s shooting percentages from what we’ll call the “deep midrange”, we’ll also see a few interesting trends.  Last season, Gibson made 26 of the 87 shots he took from these areas for a shooting percentage of 29.9%  This season, Gibson has also increased his accuracy on these “deep midrange” shots as he is shooting these shots at a 34.5% clip, making 29 of his 84 attempts.

When taking a look at Gibson’s shooting in this area last season, we will see a bit of a hot spot near the right elbow extended where he shot a league  40% last season.  Gibson has removed a majority of the jumpers from that extended elbow area this season and started taking some more shots on both baselines.  He has been particularly effective from the left baseline where he is shooting above league average at 50%.

Taking an even closer look at Gibson’s shot distribution paints a more vivid picture of his offensive profile.  In our first graphic, we looked at Gibson’s shooting percentages in each area of the court, while this second graphic takes a look at the percentage of shots Gibson takes in each of those same areas.

Last season, Gibson took 19.7% of his shots from the “deep midrange” where as we covered earlier he shot under 30% last season.  Gibson has removed some of those “deep midrange” shots this season, especially those from the extended right elbow, and has started to take a more of his shots from the closer “short midrange”.  In just one season, Gibson has transformed his midrange shooting profile and now takes a larger percentage of his shots from an easier location on the floor.  Gibson’s midrange game isn’t the only thing that has seen an improvement this season.

One of the things many have commented about on Twitter this season is the improvement in Gibson’s ability to score one-on-one in the post and the numbers bear this out.  When reviewing Gibson’s midrange profile, it became apparent that he had improved as a midrange shooter, but those numbers didn’t help explain the situation in which those shots were taken.  Reviewing Gibson’s assisted basket profile will help make that picture a bit clearer.

The first thing that sticks out in the above graphic is that Gibson is shooting better in many situations.  The most obvious spot in which Gibson’s shooting percentage has not improved is within five feet of the basket.  Though this may be a bit disheartening at first, it is important to take a look at the percentage of made baskets assisted.  Within five feet of the basket, only 64.1% of Gibson’s baskets have been assisted this season while last season that percentage was at 72.4%.  This would suggest that Gibson has been more willing to challenge his defender one-on-one in the post, which is exactly what many have posited on Twitter and this website.

As we move further from the basket, these numbers become even more impressive as even fewer of Gibson’s made baskets have been assisted.  Last season, Gibson shot just 24% from five to ten feet away from the basketball and 66.7% of his made baskets were assisted.  Now, Gibson is shooting 44.1% while only 43.3% of his made baskets have been assisted.  Gibson has not just become a better shooter, but a better shooter while being defended, which is quite the offensive development.

Now, if we take a look at Gibson’s shooting from ten to fifteen feet away from the basketball, we’ll see a decrease in shooting percentage, but once again that decrease is accompanied by a significant decrease in the percentage of assisted baskets.  Now, obviously it would be great to see Gibson shooting a better percentage in all situations, but the fact that Gibson is able to put up passable shooting percentages while having a lesser amount of assisted baskets suggests that Gibson has become more comfortable in situations when he is forced to become a playmaker offensively.

A look at these numbers show that Gibson has indeed improved offensively this season, which might explain the career-high scoring nights and swirling trade rumors.  Gibson has been able to improve in two areas that can turn a solid bench player into a starter on most teams in the league.  Not only has Gibson become a better midrange shooter through improved shot selection and accuracy, but also improved his playmaking ability scoring on more unassisted baskets this season than ever before and thus become a much bigger threat offensively.

The post Taj Gibson’s Offensive Development appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Photo courtesy of @RandallJSanders

DJ Augustin is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. Since joining Chicago he’s posted 14.0 points per game on 43% shooting and 41.9% three point shooting, 5.9 assists per game, and a 17.3 PER- all numbers that are in line with or better than his career highs. At this point he’s earned Tom Thibodeau’s trust- evident through a boost in playing time over the past 12 games- and has rewarded Thibodeau with 18.9 ppg on 45.8% shooting (47.3% three point shooting) and 6.3 apg.

It’s stunning that a guy who was discarded by the Charlotte Bobcats, is playing on his fourth team in three years, and gives us gems like…

…is having a career year and helping Chicago keep their season afloat in the process. Though as amazing as it is we shouldn’t be shocked by Augustin’s resurgence because it’s the same old story playing out for the third year in a row. Once again a third string point guard (or would be third string if Derrick Rose were healthy) is having one of the best seasons of his career under Thibodeau. It happened before with John Lucas III and Nate Robinson (and arguably Derrick Rose if you want to lump in his jump to MVP-level play in 2010), and now it’s happening with Augustin. But what is going on in Chicago for this trend to keep repeating itself?

The first possible explanation is that Thibodeau is some kind of evil wizard using magic to make all of the guards good.

Photo courtesy of @RandallJSanders

But that’s obviously not it (despite how fitting the image is). The simple, obvious, and more boring answer is that Thibodeau has developed a system and offensive game plan that makes him a point guard whisperer of sorts. Just like with any other system, a guard’s success in the offense is dependent on multiple facets; however, there tends to be one aspect of the offense that acts as the backbone for everything. In Chicago’s case that’s lateral ball movement.

Chicago’s side-to-side ball movement around the perimeter serves to create offensive opportunities for a team composed of players who struggle to generate their own shot. By moving the ball around, the Bulls force defenses off balance by making them constantly shift their positioning. When used in conjunction with on and off ball screens this forces defensive breakdowns for Chicago to exploit, primarily pick-and-roll driving lanes for the guard, spot up shots, and lanes for players to cut into (12.6%, 17.5%, and 11.4% of plays, respectfully according to Synergy Sports).

A simple sight test is enough to see that Thibodeau’s system has been and is heavily point guard dominated. Calculations made from SportsVu Player Tracking and the NBA’s statistics page supports this notion. On any given possession this season the point guards control the ball for an average of 6.2 seconds whereas everyone else who plays 20+ minutes/game only has the ball for roughly 1.3 seconds. Because the guards dominate the ball, they’re involved in a significant number of Chicago’s most run types of scoring plays (listed above), which partially explains why guards increase their scoring and assist numbers under Thibodeau.

While Chicago’s offense stems from the lateral passes, the importance of the bigs within the system can’t be understated. According to Synergy Sports, 26.2% of all of Chicago’s scoring opportunities are generated by some sort of screen. Without effective play from the bigs Chicago’s offense would become stagnant and the team’s efficiency and effectiveness would drop. Significant credit for the offense’s and point guards’ success should be given to Joakim Noah, the primary screen setter. According to a study by Vantage Sports, Noah is one of the league’s best at setting screens based on the numbers of “solid screens set” and positive offensive opportunities his screens create. With Noah on the floor, the guards also see a general bump in their shooting in the paint and restricted area.

While there are some added complexities to Thibodeau’s system, the underlying basis of it all is relatively simple and straightforward. So why haven’t the guards outside of the four aforementioned player succeeded? Ultimately it boils down to the fact that the system requires a specific kind of player- one who can generate their own offense, is fast, has a high IQ, and is good running the pick and roll.

Of all the point guards who have played in Chicago over the past three and a half years, only Rose, Robinson and Augustin fit all of these criterion based on the simple “eye test” and draft profiles found on Draft Express. It should be noted that there is no profile for Lucas III. Kirk Hinrich also doesn’t have a draft profile though it’s safe to assume his inability to thrive the way others have is due to him slowing down and becoming a worse shooter with age. All of the other point guards were missing one or more of the general characteristics.

Given that Chicago is likely to once again be financially strapped this offseason, it seems that DJ Augustin is quickly playing his way out of Chicago like Lucas III and Robinson did before him. However, it remains to be seen if teams will want to take a chance on offering a multi-year, multimillion dollar contract to Augustin. While he’s enjoyed a resurgence, teams are likely wary that the production is more so a result of Thibodeau’s system rather than what Augustin can do for any team. After all, both Lucas III and Robinson have seen their production regress to their pre-Bulls day following their breakout year in Chicago. Regardless of what happens, though, Bulls fans can take solace in knowing Thibodeau is their coach and that with him on the sidelines, the backup point guard position is almost guaranteed to be set.

Editors Note: Thank you to Randall J Sanders (@RandallJSanders) for taking the time to produce the lovely photoshops for this piece. Also thank you to Chris Herring (@HerringWSJ), Andrew Lynch (@AndrewLynch), and Jacob Frankel (@Jacob_Frankel) for helping me gather and make sense of some of the statistics used in the post.

The post Tom Thibodeau: The Point Guard Whisperer appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

This post is not going to tell you anything, really, that you don’t already know. It’s been 9 games since Derrick Rose hurt his meniscus (10 games if you include the game against the Blazers in which Rose was injured). In those 9 games, the Bulls have been really, really bad.

How bad have the Bulls been? In the last 9 games, the Bulls have a Net Rating of -6.9 per 100 possessions. That’s quite awful. Over the course of an 82 game season, that sort of Net Rating would generally yield a roughly 25 win team. That’s bottom 3 or 4 teams in the league type stuff. The Bulls have had a couple of 20 point blowout wins over the Pistons and the Heat, which actually props their Net Rating up some. Granted, those wins and points scored still count, but this is all to say that in the 7 losses in their last 9 games since Rose was hurt, the Bulls have been absolutely brutal. They’ve lost by an average of 11.1 points per game. Now, granted, the Bulls had one truly awful blowout against the Clippers where they lost by 39 points immediately following the news of Derrick Rose’s season being over. Still, if you remove that game, the Bulls have lost the other six games by 6.5 points, on average, which is again bottom-feeder territory.

This is not to say that it’s all because Rose is hurt. The Bulls have, obviously, and as usual, suffered a bunch of very important injuries. Jimmy Butler’s been out for quite a while, Luol Deng has missed some time, and Joakim Noah has missed a few games and is clearly still not right when he does play. But losing Derrick Rose, even the diminished version of him that the Bulls had prior to his injury, has been a massive problem. The Bulls have had undoubtedly the crummiest point guard play in the league all year, but it’s been even worse in the wake of Rose’s injury. Marquis Teague has been statistically one of the worst players in the entire league who has received regular minutes and Kirk Hinrich just doesn’t have much to offer at this point in his career. Teague has looked a little better in the last couple games, and it’d be nice if he would get a shot at more minutes to develop a greater comfort level and, you know, improve. With Tom Thibodeau at the helm, though, that doesn’t seem to be in the cards. That’s likely why the Bulls went out and signed the recently waived, totally terrible D.J. Augustin. He’s been brutal for a couple of years now, and he was even worse to start this year, but the Bulls still thought he represented an improvement, however slight, on what they are currently rolling with. Ugh.

The Bulls will get better, when – if ?- Jimmy, Luol, and Joakim all get healthier, but for the time being, the Bulls are playing like one of the absolute worst teams in the NBA and it’s getting really, really hard to watch.

Statistical support from NBA.com/stats

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