Image from Flickr via Pacdog

1. You think we should shutdown Noah for a while since this story came out that his injury will linger for the whole season? Brendan M

This story is coming from Joe Cowley of the Chicago Sun-Times, and nothing against Cowley, but why is he the only one reporting anything about it? It makes me wonder if there not less to this story than he’s really saying.

I suppose there are reasons to speculate: He’s wearing a knee brace, and he’s on limited minutes. But until I see more than one source reporting it, I’m going to reserve a bit of skepticism on the report.

All that said, if Cowley’s right and it’s really bone-on-bone, and will be with him for his whole career, sitting him out for a while won’t help. Bear in mind I say that if with very little confidence in the report.

2. I saw the report that Butler probably won’t be extended by the deadline. Do you think the Bulls will keep him or should we get ready to say bye to him too? Katie S

I don’t really think there’s anything to worry about here. Some fans are really paranoid about the whole restricted free agent thing since the whole Omer Asik thing and worry that the same thing can happen with Jimmy.

But different rules apply with Jimmy. The same type of contract he was offered (wrongly labeled the poison pill), where the team making the offer can back-load and make it difficult to other teams to match, can’t be offered to Jimmy.

So any offer another team makes to Jimmy would be exactly the same with the Bulls. So it’s really just about how much he’s worth.

And that’s where things get interesting. Jimmy is easily one of the best perimeter defenders in the game right now, arguably even the best. But his offense has lagged behind. This preseason he blew up, though, and his last full game was the one where he went ballistic in the fourth quarter and became “Jimmy Jordan,” nailing the game-winning three at the buzzer.

Some of that was preseason. Some of that was offseason work on his game. Some of that was getting healthy. How much can be attributed to each is hard to say without watching him in regular season games.

If you assume he returns to his 2012-13 efficiency, he’s worth $11 million. If he averages around 15 points with a true shooting percentage of .580 to .600 (which is about his ceiling) and plays the same level of dense, a max deal is reasonable. That puts the upper end around $15 million.

If Jimmy does that, I have no doubt the Bulls ink him next summer before he even hits the open market. If it doesn’t, I don’t see anyone offering him a max deal.

And with the new TV Deal, I don’t see that kind of money being an issue for the Bulls, or for them to keep Noah.

3.  The bench was killer in opener against the Knicks. Do you think this bench unit could be better than the Bench Mob from a few years ago? Michael R

I don’t want to speak ill of the Bench Mob, but this group should be better.

The Bench Mob was truly great on defense, and that’s not hyperbole. Their second year together they gave up just 79.9 points per 100 possessions. I looked through all 14 years of lineup numbers available on Basketball-Reference.com’s  Play Index, and no other lineup with 150 minutes played is below 80.

So it’s probably valid to say that the Bench Mob was one of the greatest defensive benches in the history of the league (which on another note is why I always felt it was invalid to use on/off numbers to evaluate Rose’s defense).

But whoever they were playing was nearly as good on defense as they were, if you know what I mean. The current group might not be as great on defense, but I trust in the system, and I trust in the Taj. The Taj will always make defensive plays.

What you have with this group that you didn’t before though is scoring options. Doug McDermott and Nikola Mirotic are both valid scoring options, and both have shown too much ability to put the ball on the floor to just be labeled shooters.

Taj has improved his offense immensely since the original unit. Aaron Brooks and C.J. Watson are about a wash. And Kirk is Kirk. But even there, he’s getting compared with Brewer.

I really love what this second unit can bring. I feel like they’re essentially a second wave of starters, and that’s going to keep the starters’ minutes down and hopefully the minutes too.

4. Of all the new additions to the team, who do you think is going to be the biggest impact player this year? Sam G

No question, Pau Gasol. Those who try and equate him with Carlos Boozer are just not being reasonable. Gasol is on a different level than Boozer.

He has much more of a post-up game than Boozer. He actually has more range, and that corner three he’s hit a couple of times is really interesting. He blocked as many shots in his last season than Boozer did in his whole Bulls’ career.

And the work he and Gibson have done on the court together is especially nice. I think they pair very well. It’s hard to change the starting lineup because you can’t have Mirotic start over Pau or Taj because that would be weird, and you can’t have Noah come of the bench because you dn’t do that to an All-NBA center and Defensive Player of the Year.

But what you can do is have a staggered rotation like Thibs did where Noah sits early and Taj comes in. Then later on you sub in Noah and Mirotic for Taj and Pau. Then bring Taj or Pau (whoever is playing better) at the end of the half/game.

But that’s the value of Pau. He’s the starting power forward, but he’s also the defacto backup center, and the best in the league at that.

The post By the Horns Weekly Mailbag #1 appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Player: Carlos “Puts the Boos in”  Boozer

Per Game Stats: 28.2 minutes, 13.7 points on .456 shooting, 8.3 rebounds, 1.6 assists, 2.0 turnovers, .7 steals and .3 blocks.

The Good:

Uhm……

Well, my mom taught me there’s always something nice to say so… the Bulls secured 77.3 percent of defensive rebounds while Boozer was on the court compared to 73.3 percent while he was on the bench. That’s a pretty significant difference.

Defensive rebounding can be an underrated aspect of the game. Considering how the season ended with the Bulls seemingly unable to secure one, our appreciation of them should be a tad higher now.  That will be one aspect of Boozer we we’ll miss.

Scratch that. That will be the aspect of Boozer’s game we miss.

There’s that and the fact that he only complained once about is role being diminished by a vastly superior Taj Gibson taking over.

The Bad:

The bad is pretty much everything else, as demonstrated by the on/off numbers per NBA.com/STATS.

The Bulls were better on both ends of the court with him sitting, and a net 7.5 points better. Their offensive rebound and total rebounding were better. They had a better effective field-goal percentage and a better true shooting percentage.

The one thing that’s a surprise is the pace is higher with Boozer on the court, but that’s probably a result of the defensive rebounding. The Bulls failure to grab them when he’s sitting would impact that.

The best part of this season ending is the end of “And-one!” screams, Boozer celebrating like he did something every time someone else does, his kids cheering for the Heat and  his hair-spray head.

I was personally more of an advocate of Boozer until this year, but even the most patient Bulls fans have worn out on him. People will weep with joy when his departure, one way or another, is announced.

Grade: D-

Future:

Whatever it is, I doubt it’s with Chicago. I know there are some people worried that Jerry Reinsdorf won’t pull the amnesty trigger, but I have confidence if they’re not able to work him in a trade that nets a star, they’ll dump him to acquire one.

The Bulls have just been setting themselves up for this summer for too long for it to not happen. For all the criticism Gar Forman and John Paxson take, there are two things that are hard to dispute:

1. They aren’t stupid.
2. They aren’t out of touch with Reinsdorf

Those two things put together suggest that they are either acting in concert with Reinsdorf’s wishes or he has given permission for them to act on theirs.

Don’t worry, Boozer is gone.

The post 2013-2014 Year in Review: Carlos Boozer appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Player:

Taj Gibson

Per Game Stats:

82 games played, 28.7 minutes, 13.9 points on .479 shooting, 6.8 rebounds, 1.1 assists, 1.8 turnovers, .5 steals and 1.4 blocks.

The Good:

After Joakim Noah, the brightest part of the Chicago Bulls’ season was the breakout offensively by Taj Gibson. Any questions as to whether Gibson could score enough points to justify his contract were laid to rest.

Gibson vastly improved his low-post game. In the 2012-13 season, per Synergy (account required), Gibson recorded 37 field goals on post-up plays. This year he had 110.

He also showed a massive improvement in his jump shot, elevating his average points per play form .61 points per play to .95, slightly better than Serge Ibaka’s .92.

And Ibaka-lite isn’t a bad comparison here. Gibson’s per-36 numbers aren’t that far off (16.4 points, 8.5 rebounds to 16.6 points and 9.6 rebounds) from the Oklahoma City Thunder’s star. That’s not to say Gibson is Ibaka’s equal, but he’s in the same league. Both are now capable third-scoring options and elite defenders.

Only, Gibson is doing it for $4 million a year less. Point being: He’s assuredly validated the contract he signed and established that he can start.

He also averaged 18.2 points on .561 shooting in the playoffs and had the best PER on the Bulls with 26.5. That makes him the only player in Chicago’s history other than Jordan to record a playoff PER over 25 (minimum 100 minutes). Yes, it’s super, super small sample size, but the idea of a starting power forward next year who actually elevates his game in the postseason is absolute honey compared to the last four years.

Gibson’s numbers were better as a starter too.  He averaged 19.3 points and 9.8 boards in eight starts. He’s probably not going to give you a 20/10 season, but 16/8 is feasible. At $8.5 million a year, that’s high-value contract, especially when you factor in his All-Defensive caliber play on the opposite end of the court.

The Bad:

There were occasional disappearing acts by Gibson. To the naked eye, it looked like Gibson played through some unannounced injuries which impacted his play.

But, that combined with his struggles when double-teamed, suggest he can’t be more than a third option unless his game takes another bump. His offensive game elevated to above average, but not elite. The enthusiasm for his boost should be tempered with the understanding that it’s probably close to peaked at that.

The area he can still improve is in turnovers. Seventy of his 150 turnovers were ball-handling turnovers, per 82games.com. Another 35 were offensive fouls. Most of those 105 combined turnovers probably came from two things: traveling and falling for the same trick.

There were countless times where he got whistled for moving his pivot foot when going into his spin. That can be worked on, as it’s just a skill thing. The other is he fell for the “pull the chair out” trick numerous times when backing his defender down.

The only other negative on Gibson was his defensive rebounding isn’t on par with Carlos Boozer’s. To a degree, it’s because they have different jobs on defense. Boozer is supposed to stand and wait for missed shots because he’s useless doing anything else, while Gibson is frequently stepping out and trying to guard wings at the perimeter.

Still the difference is pretty dramatic. Boozer’s 8.3 defensive boards per 36 minutes dwarves Gibson’s 5.5. Gibson will have to improve on that if he’s the starting power forward next season.

Grade: A 

Future:

Gibson will be the Bulls’ starting power forward next year unless they trade for Kevin Love or sign Pau Gasol in free agency. If he’s a starter he’s a borderline All-Star (his numbers already compare with David West and aren’t far off Paul Millsap).

At $8.5 million a year that’s a high-value contract and in today’s NBA, you don’t just need stars, you need high-value players who can out-perform their contracts. Gibson looks like he’ll be doing that, whether as a starter, or as a perennial Sixth Man of the Year candidate.

The post 2013-2014 Year in Review: Taj Gibson appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

From Flickr via Keith Allison

As the Chicago Bulls vainly struggled  to score against the Sacramento Kings (ranked 28th in defensive rating)  it was hard not to think, “They really need Carmelo Anthony.”

Certainly, his multifaceted scoring abilities would be a great boon to an offense that often looks like a clogged heart working overtime to futilely pump thickened blood through plaque-covered veins. The Bulls always appear to work so hard to accomplish so little. Anthony would be the equivalent of a quadruple bypass.

Yes, in principle, the notion of acquiring Anthony makes perfect sense. Adding the reigning scoring champion to the league’s second-worst offense has to help. It’s why some say the Bulls should land Anthony at all costs.

And that’s where flags need to be raised. How much is it going to cost to bring him in, in terms of current players, future players, and money? If the benefits of bringing over Anthony are outweighed by the cost, it’s not worth it.

If you bring up cost there’s a fallacious argument that gets lofted out there on the subject that says, “Well I guess you just want to win regular season games and don’t care about championships,” as though the choice is over winning a ring or not winning  one.

No, the choice is between what the Bulls would have to pay to get Anthony, and what they get in return for it. If the net cost makes them better, and thus closer to winning a championship, they should do it. If they get worse, it’s not. In other words, you have to do a cost-benefit analysis.

First, let’s consider the cost, and let’s start with teams that have recently made similar trades.

Over the last few years there have been three teams that have made a big move to land a second star to put them in a position to win a championship:

1. The New York Knicks traded for Carmelo Anthony to play alongside Amare’ Stoudemire.
2. The Los Angeles Lakers landed Dwight Howard to compliment Kobe Bryant.
3. The Brooklyn Nets have made three big trades to acquire Deron Williams from the Utah Jazz first, Joe Johnson from the Atlanta Hawks second and Paul Pierce and Kevin Garnett from the Boston Celtics third—all with rising star Brook Lopez in the fold.

At present the Knicks are 19-29, the Nets are 21-25 and the Lakers are 16-31. (You can argue that those teams have injuries etcetera, and you’d be right. But, I’d also say that’s precisely why the Bulls need to consider things thoroughly, and I’ll discuss that more a little later.)

The three teams have combined to win one playoff series since making their respective trades, and only one of the three, Brooklyn, would even make the playoffs if the season ended today. These trades did not put them in championship contention.

The Lakers weren’t even able to keep the star they traded to acquire, Anthony is thinking about leaving, and the Nets “window” is looking like it is shut before it ever opened up, and they’re possibly looking to trade away Williams.

Point being, trading for a second star not only doesn’t assure you of success, it carries a massive risk. Not only are all three of those teams that traded for stars have problems in the present, it looks difficult for them to suddenly turn things around in the future as well.

Brooklyn is in the saddest state, they don’t get a first-round pick this year, or in 2016. Next summer Atlanta has the right to swap picks with them. They don’t have any real cap relieve until the 2016-2017 season. They’re bad now and will continue to be bad for the foreseeable future.

The Knicks will see cap relief in the 2015-16 season, a tad sooner, but they are sending two of their next three first-round picks to the Nuggets, and that’s with only two players, Iman Shumpert and Tim Hardaway Jr., on their roster.

The Lakers owe their first-round pick in 2015 to Phoenix, and their pick in 2017 to the Orlando Magic. They get a measure of cap-relief this summer but not as much as advertised. According to Larry Coon, technically, they could sign Carmelo Anthony to an almost-max deal, but that’s only if they let ever other free agent walk.

In contrast, the Bulls have cap space coming up this summer. They have the chance to acquire Nikola Mirotic from Real Madrid (which may or may not happen). They still own all their first-round picks. They also have the Charlotte Bobcats pick (probably) coming this year, and a likely Sacramento Kings pick in the next year or two. (Yes, I’m aware that this could eventually turn into a second-round pick, but that would require a nine-year of destitution that no team has had since the merger).

It’s not so much a question of whether a second star generally helps to win a championship—it obviously does. It’s more a question of whether is assures a championship. And, on that count, it obviously doesn’t.

And Anthony isn’t exactly the kind of player who has proven he can galvanize a franchise. He’s only played in the second round of the playoffs twice and never past that. He’s only finished in the top five in MVP voting once, and never higher than third. He’s finished top 10 only twice. He has only finished top 10 in PER once (fourth in 2012-13), and he’s never finished top-10 in Win Shares.

Don’t misunderstand my intent here. I’m not saying he’s not a beneficial player. He is. I’m just pointing out that historically he hasn’t been as beneficial a player as he’s getting touted by some to be. He’s not LeBron James. He’s not the type of player who can carry a group of scrubs to the Finals the way James did in Cleveland.

You really have to honestly ask, what is left on Chicago if the Bulls acquire him?

If they trade for him, they’re going to have to give up current assets. Tommy Beer of Basketball Insider suggests this trade:

New York sends: Carmelo Anthony, Raymond Felton, Iman Shumpert and $2 million in cash

Chicago sends: Jimmy Butler, Tony Snell, Carlos Boozer, Kirk Hinrich, Chicago’s 2014 first-round draft pick and their 2015 second-round pick.

Boozer and Hinrich would be to make the money work. The picks, Snell and Butler would be to make the trade work. Also, the Bulls would be taking on Felton’s bloated contract which would restrict them in free agency for years to come.

A starting five of Rose, Shumpert, Anthony, Gibson and Noah would be intriguing. Shumpert’s defensive instincts would mesh well with Thibodeau’s style. Anthony respects Thibs, and could adapt. The starting five would be nice.

The problem would be who comes off the bench? They’d still have Dunleavy, but they couldn’t bring over Mirotic. They probably couldn’t keep D.J. Augustin. They’d have Erik Murphy and change. So what happens when injuries occur? You know they will. It’s the Bulls.

That’s what’s happened with the other teams that have failed. They put too much stock in their starting five, assemble a ragtag bench, and the teams get so top-heavy they can’t sustain an injury. Then, when the injuries happen, they collapse.

Depth matters, and gutting your bench for a superstar has been counter-productive of late. That’s why I said earlier, the injuries aren’t really a good reason to excuse the teams who made trade struggling now. They put themselves in this position by the trades they made.

Depending on what the Bulls have do, though, they may not have to trade for Anthony. Per Coon, Anthony would cost $22,458,401 if the Bulls gave him his max-possible deal. So, why not do that?

In order to acquire that much money, even if they didn’t trade, it would effectively mean a trade to get him because the Bulls would have to jettison so much salary to land him, they’d still be gutting the team.

They’d have to amnesty Boozer (which hey, that’s win-win). They’ve already traded Luol Deng. They’d also have to trade Taj Gibson in a salary dump. And, in signing him, they’d be required to forego bringing over Mirotic, at least for this year, and possibly permanently if that delay results in a new deal between Mirotic and Real Madrid.

So in effect, even just signing Anthony in free agency could leave the Bulls with Noah being the only serviceable big left on the team. (If Mohammed stays for another year, he’s far from serviceable). The Bulls could bring in vets on the minimum or use draft picks on the position, but it’s going to hurt. You’re just not going to replace Gibson with a vet minimum player. Boozer might be frustrating at times, but he’s much better than what’s going to be there in place of him.

The reality is that vet minimum players are available for the minimum for a reason.

Rookies take time to learn and develop, and there’s always a risk involved. The Bulls could use both picks on power forwards, but they’re not going to instantly be quality producers. And, they get those two picks either way.

Think of it this way: If you were Gar Forman before the Deng trade, and you got a call from the Knicks offering Anthony for Deng, Gibson, Boozer and Mirotic, would you take it? Because in effect, that’s what you’re giving up to sign Anthony.

That’s a lot to pay, even if the Bulls can keep all the picks they’re owed. Can they persuade Anthony to take less money like James did in 2010? If they can lower the cost it makes more sense. If not they need to consider if they would they be better off keeping Gibson and Mirotic, and chasing a secondary star like Lance Stephenson in free agency.

There’s a real danger of buyer’s remorse when it comes to Anthony, whether it’s from trading for him directly or selling out everything to land him in free agency. Either way, it’s not a no-brainer, and to say otherwise is just an excuse to not use your brain.

The post Raging Bull: Counting the Cost of a Carmelo Anthony Trade appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

From Sean M Flynn | Flickr

In the wake of the Luol Deng trade there’s been an onslaught of criticism by fans—some of management, some of Deng, some of both. Some just want to lash out at anyone in general. Most of the fans criticizing either way jump on a wayward “fact” or two and then build Specious Mountain out of it, stand atop it, and declare their opinion as gospel.

Some fans are what I call “thermometer fans.” They check the temperature so they can complain about the weather. It doesn’t even matter what it is. They’re the ante-fans. They are “fans” of a team only so they can have something to whine about. They seem to take more pleasure in whining than winning.

This explains why some of the same people who, just a week ago were so angry about the notion of re-signing Deng instead of trading him, are now complaining that they traded him instead of re-singing him. The same people who believed that he was demanding too much in asking for $15 million (a fictitious figure spread around as fact) are now railing at management for “lowballing” Deng with an insulting three-year, $30 million offer.

Like I said, thermometer fans. Something happened, so there must be something to be angry about.

Let’s look at the actual reality of the Deng trade before we move on. Let’s look at it (dare I suggest it?) from the perspective of management. They had a player who on the one hand was one of the top-10 players in franchise history, who was one of the longest tenured they’d ever had, and who had poured out everything for the franchise.

He was a two-time All-Star and by the coach’s account, an instrumental part of the team.

On the other hand, he’d played a lot of minutes the last few years, was going to be 29 at the beginning of the contract, and other players of his caliber were getting pitched significantly more than they could afford to give him.

Andre Iguodala, who was a fair gauge of Deng’s value, had just signed a 4-year, $48 million deal the previous summer. Some might argue that Iguodala is “worth” more, but he’s not worth $18 million more and it’s a fair estimate of Deng’s value. Who’s “better” is moot.

Neither is on another level than the other. Besides, remember he was offered a four-year $56 million year with the New Orleans Pelicans so $48 million is a low-range value, which Deng is certainly worth. Josh Smith, also a similar caliber player, signed a 4-year, $54 million deal.

So, even if you want to argue those two are better, are they nearly twice as good? There’s a lot of room between $30 million and $54-56 million.

The Bulls entered as a team with valid championship hopes, but after Rose went down, those hopes ended and that changed everything. This was the last, and maybe second-to-last year of the window for this particular core. The window broke.

So now the Bulls and Deng were destined to split. It was the only logical conclusion. The bottom line was simple: Deng’s market value was higher than what the Bulls could afford to pay. Complicating matters was the innate eminence of the deal. There was a deadline and they didn’t have time to think about it. Cleveland had to trade Bynum now!

So, you can argue, why did they wait until now? They should have negotiated during the summer. But, during the summer they didn’t know what would happen this year. If they had negotiated this summer they might have reached a deal, and then Deng would be under contract right now for the next four years, and everyone would be complaining that we had this albatross of a contract that was keeping us out of free agency.

They did what they should have done this offseason. They waited to see how the season would play out so they could maximize their flexibility. Then, when they got the best offer they felt they could get, they told Deng what their best possible offer was, and Deng rejected it, quite reasonably, because he could get more elsewhere. The Bulls can’t afford to give more; that doesn’t mean he’s not worth more.

But, some might argue, the Bulls are a rich team and Jerry Reinsdorf doesn’t care about the Bulls and he only cares about the White Sox and so on and so forth. Even if all that is true (and I don’t concede it is at all because they proved they were willing to spend the money for a contender) it’s still moot.

This is where fans have to do something that goes against their nature: Learn about the business side of things. Paying the luxury tax is something you probably have to do to win, but paying it when you can’t win can prevent you from winning in the future.

The new CBA includes a “repeater tax” which kicks in if you’ve paid the tax in three of your last four years. It means if you’re $20 million over the tax you could end up paying as much almost $100 million in taxes alone—plus the $100 million salary.

Not only that, but being over the tax “apron” ($5 million over the tax payer threshold) almost paralyzes what the team can do in terms of exceptions or trades. It costs virtually all flexibility. And we’ve seen that you can spend money hand over fist, and still be horrible. Just look at the two New York teams if you don’t believe me.

The important thing now isn’t just “whether” you pay the tax, but “when” do you pay the tax. And the trick is to align when you pay with your championship window. And regardless of where you stand, I think we can all agree, the Bulls chances of winning a title this year are nonexistent.

And, on a side note, I believe that Tom Thibodeau is an intelligent enough person to understand all nuances of this too. He’s not happy about it and no one expected him to be. At the same time, they didn’t sideswipe him with the news either. They let him know before what was happening.

When you look at everything in context, it all makes sense. They didn’t re-sign him this summer because they shouldn’t have, and that decision has been borne out by the season. They traded him when they needed to. They offered him what they could.

On Deng’s side, he didn’t do or ask for anything unreasonable.

There is no animosity on either side. The only complaint, ironically, is Deng’s request that the fans understand that he never asked for $15 million. What does it say that he’s not faulting ownership, but has an issue with the antefans making snap judgments?

And this brings us full circle. Fans have a responsibility too, and that goes beyond just cheering for your team. Fans shouldn’t blindly drink the team Kool-Aid and rubberstamp everything their team does but they should understand what the team does before criticizing it. If you want to judge, first show judgment.

The post What Chicago Bulls Fans Need to Understand Before Criticizing the Luol Deng Trade appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

From Flickr via Keith Allison

There was a lot of news this last week about the Chicago Bulls and whether they should trade Luol Deng. Among the most intriguing names to pop up is Dion Waiters, the disgruntled shooting guard for the Cleveland Cavaliers.

Determining whether the Bulls should make such a move is not an easy one either way. Too much of the time we look at trades at just think of this player versus that player. That’s a sloppy and short-sighted way of looking at it.

Unless you’re in a “win-now” mode (which the Bulls are not with Derrick Rose done for the year) the only way to measure a trade is by comparing how the future team would look if you make the trade versus how it would look if you didn’t make the trade.

There are two problems which the Bulls have had in the Tom Thibodeau era which can be adequately described as chronic: a chronic absence of shot creators apart from Derrick Rose and a chronic presence of injuries. Watiers, potentially, could help with both of these issues.

He’s averaged 14.9 points with a 47.9 effective field-goal percentage, and 52 percent of his points are unassisted. He is shooting slightly over 40 percent from deep. The biggest argument in favor of making a play for Waiters is that he would actually be a pure scorer at the 2, something the Bulls haven’t had since Ben Gordon bolted for the Pistons.

While you’d like to see a bit more efficiency, it’s worth bearing in mind that he’s just 22 and only in his second year in the NBA. There’s plenty of room to grow there. He would give the Bulls an authentic offensive threat in the backcourt beside the hopefully healthy Rose going forward.

The Bulls wouldn’t be able to make a Deng for Waiters move straight up because the salaries don’t match. However, if you add in Anderson Varejao, the salaries match up. While Varejao is under contract for two more years, next year is unguaranteed, so the Bulls cap (which is actually overstated) wouldn’t be overly infringed.

Of course the Bulls could either keep him or move him in a trade though.

There are a lot of reasons to make sense of this trade. If only things were so simple.

I get the sense that many Bulls fans don’t truly appreciate how much Deng means to the team, both as a player and a leader. You don’t just deal a two-time All-Star and not realize the impact of the loss. Yes, Jimmy Butler has shown potential, and is an outstanding defender (seriously, a 6.5 PER?) but that leaves out the logic that Butler is already on the team.

You can’t replace a player with an existing player, because the existing player is on the roster already. When my office TV broke, I had to replace it with the TV that used to be in my bedroom. It was bigger, so it was an “upgrade” in my office, but my bedroom had to settle for the smaller TV that used to be in there before I got the big TV for it.

Point being, you can move parts around, but you ultimately end up with a downgrade somewhere when you “replace” something with what you already have.
The difference between a Butler/Deng wing tandem and a Waiters/Butler wing tandem is exactly the difference between Deng and Waiters. Butler is a constant. So how do Deng and Waiters compare?

Deng is the more productive player per minute, but not by nearly the margin you might expect, especially since most of the difference comes in rebounds—not a factor that you’re particularly looking for in a small forward.

Of course this doesn’t account for defense, and with Waiters that’s still a developing aspect of his game. There would certainly be a loss there. Of course a year under the tutelage of Thibodeau could help Waiters, who has the athleticism to be a superior defender.

And, if they’re this close now, how will they compare in two years, three years, or four years? Certainly not nearly so favorably. By then, with Waiters hitting the peak of his career, and Deng’s in decline, it’s more likely that Waiters would be the better player.

The Bulls can’t seem to decide if they want to rebuild or not. If they are, it would behoove them to move Deng. There are arguments to retain him, particularly if he’s willing to take slightly less than he’d get on the open market. Not the least of these is a peace offering from management to Thibodeau.

There are arguments to trade him while he’s still a Bull. We don’t want a repeat of Omer Asik, where we lose him when we could have gotten something for him. There are no arguments to just let him walk in free agency and getting nothing back.

Personally, I sit down with Thibodeau, have a very long talk with him, and get his blessing on the trade, then pull the trigger. The Bulls are somewhat forced into going to a min-rebuilding phase either way right now. This year and next, the championship window is closed. In two years, when Waiters starts sniffing his prime though, the window could re-open. And at that time, it would be better to have him than Deng.

The post Talking Points: Should the Bulls Trade Luol Deng for Dion Waiters? appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Image from @CJZero via Twitter

When the “news” broke that Tom Thibodeau might flee the Chicago Bulls for greener pastures in New York, the first thing I did was laugh. When I heard the reasoning behind it was his much publicized feud with management in Chicago, I laughed even harder.

Thibodeau bolting from Chicago for New York because he doesn’t like management would be akin to me moving from Texas to the core of the sun because I don’t like the heat.

Yes, there may be management issues in Chicago and there may not be a perfect working relationship, but what’s going on in New York is outright comical.

Let’s put things in perspective here. James Dolan is the East Coast version of a dumber, less-accomplished Jim Buss. He’s never had to earn anything. His qualifications for being made head of Cablevision were having his father be the founder.

You don’t need to know his life story, just look at his Wiki entry.

After diddling away the first 20 years of his adult life wallowing in drugs and alcohol, his big business achievement with Cablevision was making sure that they didn’t get involved in the satellite game (and we all know what failures DirecTV and Dish Network have been).

He’s a meddling pseudo owner who constantly messes things up and blames everyone else for his failures. The mistakes he’s made as an owner run the gamut, from players to GMs to coaches.

There’s the ridiculous $100 million Allan Houston contract, the Stephon Marbury trade, the Eddy Curry trade. There’s the egregious, uninsured max deal given to Amar’e Stoudemire, whom everyone else in the world knew had bad knees. Add in the total commitment to never having the chance to draft first-round picks two years in a row, just for fun.

There’s Isiah Thomas. That’s its own paragraph.

There’s the virtual river of coaches: Jeff Van Gundy, Larry Brown, Herb Williams, Lenny Wilkins, Williams again, Larry Brown, Thomas, Mike D’Antoni and now Mike Woodson, who currently owns, but is in danger of losing, the job.

That’s nine coaching changes in 13 years.

Dolan is the kind of person who has never accomplished anything, makes impossible demands of other people to fix his bungles, and when they can’t, fires them. He’s worse than a petulant child; he’s a petulant adult. At least with children there’s hope they’ll mature.

That sounds like the kind of stable job environment I’d want to move into if I were disgruntled with management.

Especially when I look at the barrage of one-dimensional players surrounding Carmelo Anthony, who may be the most un-Thibean player Thibs would ever coach.

Anthony is not concerned about defense, or the little things that Thibodeau pays so much attention to. He is only concerned about himself. There’s no I in team, but there’s a “me” right in the heart of “Carmelo.” He’s the exact opposite of Thibodeau’s virtual son, Luol Deng.

Furthermore, the Knicks not only have no real team to speak of, they also have no assets, no young players, no cap space and no way to improve. Even if Carmelo Anthony opts out of his contract, the Knicks are still over the cap. And they don’t get all their wasted draft picks back either.

Even when they do get cap space, they won’t be able to get young players in the draft attractive enough to lure free agents.

In short, they are bad and assured of getting worse, with no hope of getting better for the next five years.

Meanwhile in Chicago, Thibs has had to deal with such atrocities as his favorite assistant getting fired and not always getting all the players he wants. Woodson would kill for problems like that.

The Bulls have had an incredibly discouraging season, but they have Nikola Mirotic—whom one scout has described as, “the best player not in the NBA right now”—presumably coming over next summer. They have not just one, but probably two first-round draft choices this summer, should Charlotte finish outside the bottom 10, as it looks like they will.

New York won’t be able to use two total first-round picks until 2017.

The Bulls have cap space coming up this summer, because they, unlike New York, didn’t stupidly burn their amnesty, and they can cut their dead weigh…er…Carlos Boozer. They have a young star player in Derrick Rose to attract free agents.

In short, there not be a perfect world for Thibodeau in Chicago, but it’s not the extra level of Dante’s hell that New York is. Thibs may very well decide to not finish his tenure with the Bulls, but I doubt it. I can say with total confidence though, if he ends his contract early to go somewhere else, it won’t be New York and that colossal mess.

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