Avi Saini: Faction. Dunleavy Jr. is a strong shooter that opposing defenses will have to constantly account for as he shot 44.9%, 44.6%, and 47.8% in spot up, off screen, and transition situations, respectively, last season. While he will help the Bulls space the floor better, I don’t think he necessarily “solves” the problem on his own. Unless Tom Thibodeau has lost his mind, Dunleavy won’t be playing 48 minutes per game which means the Bulls will still have outside shooting woes when he’s on the bench. Ultimately, Chicago’s three-point shooting issues will only be solved if other players, namely Kirk Hinrich and Jimmy Butler, can step up to the task of knocking down three-point shots while Dunleavy is resting. Last year, both Hinrich and Butler shot a respectable 39.0% and 38.1%, respectively, from beyond the arc. If both can maintain that level of shooting or improve, something I hope at least Butler can do, then Chicago’s floor spacing issue may be solved.

Braedan Ritter: Fiction. I wouldn’t go so far as to say that Mike Dunleavy Jr. fixes the Bulls three-point shooting issue, but he definitely helps it. Dunleavy, who shot 42.8 percent from three last season, hit at a better rate than anyone on the Bulls did. MDJ will likely fill the role of Marco Belinelli, who shot 35.7 from deep; so that’s an improvement right off the bat. But the loss of Nate Robinson (.405) will hurt. If Luol Deng can rebound from his worst percentage (.322) since 2007-2008, Jimmy Butler can continue to improve as he did during the season and Derrick Rose comes back with an improved shot, I can see the Bulls being slightly better off from deep. However teams will probably still pack the paint and force Chicago to win from the outside.

Matt McHale: Fiction. Dunleavy’s shooting acumen is well-documented and he’s easily the team’s best pure three-point specialist since Kyle Korver was shipped out last summer. So that’s one guy on the team who can knock down threes…which isn’t going to cut it for a team with championship aspirations. Let’s take last season’s finalists for instance. The Miami Heat had five players shoot 40 percent or better from beyond the arc and ranked second overall in three-point accuracy (39.6 percent). The Spurs had four players hit 40 percent or better and ranked fourth in three-point percentage (37.6). This is no coincidence.

Three-point shooting is critical in today’s NBA. And while Dunleavy will provide much-needed outside shooting range off the bench, where’s it going to come from when he’s sitting, which will be most the time? The Bulls projected starting lineup has a dearth of long-range shooters. Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah don’t shoot threes. Derrick Rose is a career 31 percent three-point shooter who has never hit better than 33 percent of this treys. Luol Deng shot near a career-worst (32.2 percent) last season. Jimmy Butler shot a respectable 38.1 percent on threes and got progressively better as the season progressed…but there’s no telling yet whether that will continue.

Unless something changes, the Bulls’ outside shooting isn’t likely to improve much from last season, regardless of the Dunleavy signing.

2. Fact or Fiction: Bulls fans should be concerned about how the front office has managed the offseason so far.

Avi Saini: Fiction. Coming into this offseason over the luxury tax there were only two things the Bulls could do this offseason- 1) Use the mini-Mid Level Exception and seemingly dump the 2014 plan or 2) Simply sign veterans at the minimum and try for a star next offseason via the 2014 plan. They opted for the former. This should please Bulls fans for a several reasons. First it shows that a Jerry Reinsdorf team is FINALLY willing to go into the tax and stay in the tax to potentially win it all. Secondly, the Bulls were able to get someone who can possibly help the team win now rather than waste a year staying stagnant. And lastly it possibly put the very faulty 2014 plan to rest (as explained in a previous post in which Braeden and I debated the merits of trading Deng).

Braedan Ritter: Fiction. As far as signings go, the Bulls did the best they could with the room they had. They addressed their biggest need—shooting—and brought back Nazr Mohammed, who was serviceable last year. They are even going to be paying the tax again!

The only concern I have—granted it is a pretty big concern—is the fallout from Ron Adams’ firing. Adrian Wojnarowski reported that the relationship between Tom Thibodeau and Gar Forman is “easily the worst” coach-GM relationship in the league. I don’t agree with everything Thibs does, and there were surely reasons for firing Adams, but upsetting your head coach, a guy won Coach of the Year in 2010-2011 and is a defensive genius, doesn’t seem like a smart play from Forman. Thibodeaus don’t grow on trees.

Matt McHale: Fact-ish. The Bulls acquired Dunleavy for a relative bargain (approximately $6 million over two years), re-signed Mohammed for the vet’s minimum to back up Noah, let Marco Belinelli walk, and cut Rip Hamilton. I can’t really argue with any of those moves, and the Dunleavy signing was a strong positive. And for all the annual talk about the Bulls being cheap, they paid the luxury tax for last season’s payroll — for the first time ever mind you — and are slated to do so again this season.

That said, the Bulls didn’t make any significant upgrades to a roster that likely would have fallen short of championship expectations even if Rose had played last season. And as CSN Chicago’s Mark Schanowski pointed out, signing Dunleavy may have cost the Bulls a max contract slot in 2014.

Then there’s the somewhat mystifying Ron Adams situation. As Jeff Van Gundy said, it gives off the vibe that something’s wrong with the Bulls. A front office firing the head coach’s lead assistant — who also was reportedly very close to the team’s franchise player — is a bad sign no matter how you try to spin it.

Which leads to the question: What are the Bulls doing exactly? They’ve gone over the cap and surpassed the luxury tax threshold without going all-in the way the Nets did. They got a good deal on Dunleavy but it might have cost them the chance to sign another star to play alongside Rose next summer. And they may have semi-alienated Tom Thibodeau, who is the team’s second-best asset after Rose. Major cause for concern? Maybe not. But mild concern? Yes.

3. Fact or Fiction: As presently constituted, the Bulls have a legitimate shot to challenge for supremacy in the Eastern Conference next season.

Avi Saini: Fact-ish. Last season’s Bulls team was a fairly makeshift team that still wreaked a good deal of havoc in the league. And, at the close of the season despite the various issues that arose during the season, the Bulls still finished only five games back of the perceived second best team in the East, the Indiana Pacers. Assuming Derrick Rose comes back as good as ever and the team remains fairly healthy, I believe this year’s Chicago team is the second best team in the East. They have one of the league’s better benches and have one of the league’s best coaches running the show. However, in terms of challenging for supremacy further than that (aka beating Miami in the playoffs)… well let’s just color me skeptical. In the past three years we’ve only had one truly legitimate battle between the Heat and the Bulls back in the 2011 playoffs when both teams were fairly healthy. Aside from the starters, this year’s roster figures to be vastly different compared to that team from a few years ago and there’s no telling just how well they’ll matchup against the Heat in the playoffs. Until I see results showing otherwise, Miami remains the unchallenged supreme team in the East I question Chicago’s ability to push for supremacy further than the second best team in the East.

Braedan Ritter: Fact. Obviously, this all depends on Derrick Rose coming back strong, but I think the Bulls have a shot at the title (not just the Eastern Conference) with the team that is currently constructed. Miami is the clear favorite, and after that the Bulls, Pacers and Nets (perhaps?) will probably fight it out for the second seed, but I don’t see why the Bulls can’t be the ones on the top of that pile when the season ends. Miami was forced to seven games twice in the playoffs, and was 20 seconds away from losing the Finals in Game 6: they are beatable. But that only works if the Bulls are finally healthy and the-very-well-rested Rose plays like the MVP that he once was. Those are big “ifs” that haven’t fallen in the Bulls favor the past few seasons.

Matt McHale: Fact and Fiction. You can’t question Thibodeau’s ability to maximize the returns on the talent he has at his disposal. So assuming Rose returns anywhere near his old form and that there aren’t any other major injury problems, the Bulls will most likely challenge for the best regular season record in the East (and maybe the entire league) as they did the two seasons before Rose’s knee injury.

Of course, assuming there won’t be injury problems may be too big of an assumption considering how things have gone the past three seasons. For whatever reason, the Bulls have ranked among the league leaders in player games lost due to injury for several years. Then there’s the problem of history. What’s changed from the previous seasons in which the Bulls came up short? Will they be fully healthy? Will one superstar be enough? Will they have enough three-point shooting? Will Carlos Boozer be able to show up consistently in the playoffs? And so on.

I think the Bulls will be right there in the mix during the regular season because the coach and players will demand their best every night. But the issues that have haunted them in the past haven’t been addressed, which could end up haunting them come playoff time.

The post 3-on-3: The Bulls and the Offseason So Far appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Still no real clue about which free agent(s) the Bulls will target this summer.

There’s always a certain amount of ambiguity surrounding a team after it is eliminated from the NBA playoffs. But the Bulls are one big question mark. The only players under contract for next season are Derrick Rose, James Johnson, Kirk Hinrich, Luol Deng and Taj Gibson. Of course, there’s a sense that either Hinrich or Deng would be offered up readily in a sign-and-trade scenario. And Vinny has been one of the walking dead for months, although we won’t know for sure until this weekend or early next week.

What is the future of this team?

This season — and to an even greater extent these playoffs — proved that Rose and Noah provide a great foundation on which to build. Of course, the season and playoffs also proved the Bulls are another All-Star away from being something other than the scrappy team that sneaks into the playoffs and fights valiantly before their annual early exit.

We’re supposed to trust in management’s plan…even if we aren’t 100 percent certain what that plan is.

Jerry Reinsdorf is sitting on a big pile of cash. How will he spend it? I doubt LeBron James will come to Chicago. My two cent pscyhoanalysis is that LeBron wants to be bigger than Michael Jordan by the time his career is over, and that might be impossible if he comes to the Windy City, where he would be playing in Jordan’s shadow from the get go. If he leaves Cleveland, it’s most likely he’ll go to New York, right? James loves the Big Apple, and he would be the city’s greatest basketball player before suiting up for a single game.

Everything Dwyane Wade has been saying seems to indicate he’s not leaving Miami any time soon. Chris Bosh is still in play, and he would fill Chicago’s biggest need…a reliable frontcourt scorer. The biggest obstacle to Bosh will be the other teams throwing cash his way. Miami has more cap space available than the Bulls, and they have a former NBA Finals MVP, not to mention beautful weather 12 months a year.

I was critical of Joe Johnson’s performance in Game 5 of the Bucks-Hawks series, but to be honest, my reluctance toward Joe has more to do with the fact that he’s a volume shooter who’s numbers feel to reliant on big minutes and plenty of touches. I’m not sure he’s the ideal player to pair with Rose. I know, I know. The same could be said of D-Wade, but Wade is a superstar and Johnson.

No, I’m not excited about David Lee. I can’t shake the feeling that somebody is going to overpay for Lee this summer and that somebody will be very disappointed over the next four to five seasons.

Carlos Boozer? Word has it he wants to stay in Utah. Amar’e Stoudemire? It’s starting to look like the Phoenix Suns might break the bank to keep him.

Every possibility has a dark side. The folks in the front office have left the team and the fans dangling for the last season or two or three or four…and there’s no clear path to change. There are vague, blurry possibilities. We can only hope the Bulls don’t go the way of the Detroit Pistons — who spent over $90 million for Ben Gordon and Charlie Villanueva last summer — because that would be catastrophic.

As far as coaches go, my pick would be Jeff Van Gundy. I’m not sure that would be a poplular pick among most Bulls fans, but his teams always play tough defense and execute a disciplined (if unspectacular) offense. But as I said above, it’s not clear whether the Bulls will need a new coach. (That seems like a joke, right? I feel like management is dragging its feet on a decision that has already been made…but what do I know?

Man, I hate the offseason guessing game.

The post Living in limbo appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Barring the inexplicable and unforseen, those are your 2009-10 Chicago Bulls.

According to Bulls GM Gar Forman: “The roster (is set) as of now. We talk to a lot of teams to see if we can make ourselves better. Outside of a major type trade, I really don’t see us doing anything. We would anticipate we will carry 13 players.?We have a qualifying offer out to Aaron Gray and all indications are that he will sign it and return.? I like our roster. We like our young core and where we’re at. We feel pretty good going into the season.”

In other words, don’t expect Carlos Boozer or David Lee to come walking through that door anytime soon. Bulls management has assembled what it feels is a solid core group of players and manipulated the salary situation so that the team will be $12 million or more under the cap going into next summer. They feel their job is done…for now.

The players just have to play. Rose has to improve — and there’s every indication that he has improved and will continue to do so. Deng must not only be healthy, but he’ll also need to return to his 2006-07 “almost an All-Star” form. Thomas has to play like it’s a contract year (and it is). Salmons needs to prove he can play shooting guard full-time (and stay on fire from downtown). Noah and Miller has to rebound and bang bodies (and an occasional inside score wouldn’t hurt).  Hinrich and Pargo must provide scoring and steady play off the bench. The rookies need to contribute when called upon. Gray and James have to work on waving towels and handing out Gatorade.

On paper, these Bulls look like a solid 40-win team, unless one or more key players get hurt or the team mysteriously takes a step backward (ala the 2007-08 season). That won’t necessarily thrill a fan base that wants at least a small glimmer of hope for banner number seven…but it’s what we’ve got.

The post What you see is (probably) what you’re going to get appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

New Bulls GM Gar Forman might not wrap himself in a cloak of paranoid secrecy like Jerry Krause used to before the NBA draft, but he’s certainly mastered the art of answering questions without saying, well, anything at all, really. For instance:

“We may take a point guard if we feel that’s the best player available. We’ve also had talks with teams about moving back. And we’ve had talks with teams where either with one or both of our picks, we move out. I think it’s going to be a very active draft because there are the top five or six guys, and after that, the same guy who goes nine or 10 could go 20 or 21. We’d like a low-post scorer. But when you get that deep, I’m not sure you can pinpoint a specific need and meet it. If we can with somebody we like, then we would address it.”

Too specific for you? Maybe this will help muddy things up: “We’re analyzing this draft by itself. At the same time, we’re still looking at players that maybe we feel don’t get to 16 but are worthwhile for us to move up (to draft). We probably have more options than some teams because we have the two first-round picks. People say this draft isn’t particularly strong. I would disagree with that in this sense: I’m not sure it’s top-heavy. But I do think it’s deep. So we feel optimistic that if we stay at 16, we can get a productive player who can play a role for us.”

Well, those two paragraphs worth of “answers” taught us nothing at all. Not that I’d expect Gar to give up his draft strategy. The NBA draft has a long and storied history of double talk and misdirection. Still, Forman had some positive things to say about Pittsburgh forward DeJuan Blair, who — despite being only 6’6″-ish — averaged 10.7 rebounds in two collegiate seasons. “If you study drafts over the last 15 or 20 years, rebounders rebound. That’s a stat that does translate. So I think he’s going to be a good player in the NBA.”

Just not necessarily good on the Bulls? Who knows. I’m resigned to knowing nothing until draft night. (He’s right about the rebounding thing, though.)

By the way, Luol Deng is working out again. You may remember him. Tall, slender, solid mid-range shooter, used to play small forward for the Bulls. Said Forman: “He’s been [at the Berto Center] working some. He’s starting to run some and get some shots up. So we think that’s progressing well. At this point, [the training staff] is real happy with his progress.”

Deng is trying to avoid surgery. Let’s hope he does.

The post Gar Forman: Playing coy appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Meanwhile, K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune would like you to know that the Bulls’ draft plans all center around Derrick Rose, which is kind of like saying that living centers around eating, drinking, breathing and not walking in front of a moving bus. K.C. also provides a list of the top five shooting guards that might be available when the Bulls make their first selection: Gerald Henderson, Terrence Williams, Jeff Teague, Wayne Ellington and Toney Douglas.

The post More draft talk appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

To sum up: There may or may not be a secret deal, but we’ll never know because it’s against the rules and the involved parties would deny it anyway. For his part, BG says he wants to remain a Bull, win “a couple of championship rings” with the Bulls, and then retire a Bull. But, well, you never know.

“I’ve been pretty consistent with what I’ve said: The NBA is a business. Regardless of what happens, you have to separate the business side from your emotions. And I did that. Things didn’t go my way but that didn’t stop me from approaching my job the same way and loving the game of basketball. There are a lot of people in worse situations than me, so there’s really no need to be stressed about it or have bad blood. … One thing I’ve learned for sure in the NBA is you don’t have a deal until something is signed. Come July 1, I’m excited to see what’s out there. I’m excited with the possibility of getting a long-term deal.”

It’s true. Ben was great last season. He didn’t sulk or pout. Instead, he played his butt off and helped get his team into the playoffs. And I can’t really blame him for not getting all misty-eyes about whether the Bulls were going to re-sign him. At this point, he’s done everything a player in his position could have done, and now he has to play the waiting game…along with the rest of us.

The post Ben: “I want to be a Bull. But…” appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

The Bulls currently own the 16th and 26th picks…so why are they working out somebody who should be long gone before they get the chance to make a selection? Are they hoping that all those other teams will balk at Flynn’s size? (According to Ford: “Syracuse has listed him, generously, at 6 feet for the past two seasons. Standing next to him, it’s easy to see that Flynn will be lucky if he can crack 5-foot-11 in shoes. A measurement of 5-foot-10 is a better bet.”) Or are they planning to trade up for a better pick? And even if they do get Flynn, don’t we already have an All-Star point guard in the making in Derrick Rose? It seems a little early to start grooming his replacement. I suppose it’s possible that the Bulls would draft him and then immediately package him in another trade…but who knows?

Still, considering that the team is set at the point and we hardly need to worry about splitting up minutes between two lottery picks, I don’t see Flynn becoming a Bull. Still, here’s his profile at NBADraft.net. Oh, and here’s some video of him making a poster…

The post Are the Bulls trading up? appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Now, the luxury tax level for the 2008-09 season was $71.15 million. However, due to the fact that the NBA is really hurting from a financial perspective, it’s likely that the salary cap will be reduced, and therefore the luxury tax threshold will drop significantly (perhaps to around $65 million-ish). And if that happens, the Bulls won’t be able to re-sign Gordon without paying the tax…unless they manage to dump some salary.

So does Gar’s announcement mean that Kirk Hinrich is officially on the chopping block? Of course, even if they managed to trade Kirk, they’d still have to take on a comparable salary that would push them over the limit anyway. We also don’t yet know what kind of demand there will be for BG on the open market, which obviously will affect what the team offers him. As always, stay tuned…

The post If Ben stays…who goes? appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Let the offseason speculation continue! Now that the woeful Clippers have won the right to destroy yet another promising NBA career, K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune is advocating a straight-up trade with The Other L.A. Team: Kirk Hinrich for Marcus Camby. The upside of the trade is that it gets Captain Kirk’s Contract of Doom off the books while Camby’s $7.65 million deal expires next summer.

However, shipping Kirk to the West Coast almost guarantees that the Bulls will have to resign Ben Gordon for big bucks, which is sort of like trading one high-priced, multi-year contract for another. And I’ve already explained why Hinrich has more utility to the team than Gordon. Who would back up Derrick Rose? How would the Bulls hide Gordon on defense? Who would rock the everlasting five o’clock shadow?

As for Camby, he’s just a 34-year-old Tyrus Thomas with somewhat better shot selection. He’s not an inside scorer. He missed 20 games last season with various minor injuries. And it’s also possible he’s permenantly tainted with the Clippers Curse. (For further reading, see “Brand, Elton.”) Oh, and the dude wears sweater vests. In the summer. In Los Angeles. (See above.) That’s just creepy, right?

Bottom line: The trade would make the team worse in the short term but give us more cash in the long run. Personally, I’d rather keep an eye out for trades that will make us better first and use salary dumps as a last resort.

The post Marcus Camby? Again, no thanks appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.