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Nikola’s here!

The Chicago Bulls have finally got their man. He’s not Melo or Love, but Nikola Mirotic will be in the NBA this year and that is quite exciting in and of itself. Adrian Wojnarowski of Yahoo! Sports reports that Mirotic will sign a three-year deal worth approximately $17 million.

With a sign-and-trade for Pau Gasol apparently not in the cards, the Bulls will have to amnesty Carlos Boozer to sign Gasol and Mirotic, or at least trade him for no returning salary. Signing Gasol would leave the Bulls with somewhere in the neighborhood of $4.6 million in cap space after Greg Smith was dumped on the Mavericks, but Mirotic could only be getting $17 million in three years if his first-year salary was more like $5.6 million. So presumably there’s another move coming, probably with Anthony Randolph being shipped out.

Regardless, the Bulls seem fairly confident to have agreed to terms with Mirotic already, so I would imagine they’ve got things under control. In the meantime, it’s enough to know that Mirotic will provide shooting from the power forward position and presumably play a lot with his countryman Gasol. Until then, if you want to see him in action, go check out his scouting report from Draft Express. Or go hunting on YouTube. Either or.

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yanni | Flickr

Unfortunately, as has become all too common for the Chicago Bulls, they seem poised to whiff on another marquee free agent. Carmelo Anthony appears to be headed back to the New York Knicks, which means the Bulls need to shift their focus to Kevin Love immediately.

Here’s the way it works: The Minnesota Timberwolves are reportedly asking any team trading for Love to take back Kevin Martin as part of the deal. The Bulls, if they amnesty Boozer, which they are apparently ready to do, have more than enough flexibility to manage that.

The transaction, due to the way the CBA limits the amount of money teams can take back in trades, would actually be broken into two separate trades. If you’re curious, you can read about it in Larry Coon’s excellent FAQ.

Trade 1: The Bulls receive Kevin Love in return for Taj Gibson, Mike Dunleavy Jr., the rights to Nikola Mirotic, the Sacramento Kings pick the Bulls received in the Luol Deng trade, and first rounders from the Bulls in 2015 and 2017.

This trade works because the Bulls are sending out $11.3 million in salary and receiving $15.8 million, which is within the CBA’s limits. The Bulls would have about $72.5 million in salary committed next year after this, below the projected luxury tax line.

Trade 2: The Bulls receive Kevin Martin in exchange for Tony Snell and the non-guaranteed contracts of Mike James, Lou Amundson and Ronnie Brewer.

This trade also works, as the Bulls send out just under $5.5 million and receive about $6.7 million, also within the CBA’s limits. They would also remain under the tax line.

For Minnesota, the draw comes from shedding Martin’s salary, three future first round picks, an elite prospect in Nikola Mirotic and Taj Gibson, who could be flipped for further assets, or kept as a very good starter on a very reasonable contract. As currently constructed, the Wolves would be slightly over the cap. After this trade (and after waiving James, Brewer and Amundson), they would have somewhere in the neighborhood of $5 million in cap room, or they could elect to stay over the cap and use their exceptions without worrying at all about the tax line.

The Bulls, meanwhile, could amnesty Boozer and then keep the full mid-level exception ($5 million) and the Bi-Annual Exception, which comes in at around $2 million. That way, they’d have a decent offer to make to Pau Gasol, who they’re reportedly interested in, or somebody else who would also help. Ed Davis or Jordan Hill, maybe. They would also have enough cash to get a backup point guard and/or another wing.

Just imagine it: Derrick Rose, Kevin Martin, Jimmy Butler, Kevin Love and Joakim Noah as the starters, then backup point guard x, shooting wing y, Doug McDermott, big man z and Greg Smith off the bench, with the final three roster spots filled by minimum guys. That is unquestionably a championship-calibre team.

You’re welcome, GarPax. Now go get it done.

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From Flickr by Michael Wa

The NBA free agency window opened up at 12:00 AM this morning which means we are in the midst of the most exciting two weeks of the offseason. The Chicago Bulls are widely expected to make a splash in some form or the other this offseason as they try to get the final piece to their championship puzzle. The past several weeks have been filled with many bits of news and rumors and the next few weeks are to be filled with the same. The sheer amount of information can be difficult to keep up with and, at times, overwhelming. The following is a small primer of the major points to monitor as a Bulls fan. Added in are some bits of friendly advice from your Bulls by the Horns staff.

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Salary Cap Space

To this point we, the public, don’t know just how large the salary cap is and likely won’t know just how much cap space the Bulls have for another one to two weeks. At this point all we can hope is that the cap increased by roughly $5 million as the NBA projected towards the end of the season as that gives the Bulls the best opportunity to sign a max player while giving up very little.

The Pursuit to End the Melodrama

Obviously the major story of the offseason for the Chicago Bulls. It’s been an open secret since the All-Star break that the Chicago Bulls are interested in Carmelo Anthony and that various members of the team such as Joakim Noah have been actively recruiting him to the team. Carmelo Anthony has similarly expressed interest in joining the Bulls as he’s openly expressed his desire to play under coach Tom Thibodeau and along side Derrick Rose and company. His desire is to win a title and Chicago presents his best chance.

Despite opting out and declaring his desire to win, recent reports say Anthony still wants to be paid a max deal while also winning. If this is the case Melo and Chicago may be faced with an interesting dilemma. Carmelo Anthony can either choose the money and stay with the New York Knicks or he can choose to take less and try to win with the Bulls just as the Big 3 in Miami took less to win. Chicago is faced with the daunting task of getting Phil Jackson and the Knicks to play along with a sign and trade that involves Carlos Boozer, a player they’ve expressed zero interest in.

As of now everything is up in the air regarding Anthony. We do know that he has plans to meet with the Bulls first, followed by the Houston Rockets, Dallas Mavericks, New York Knicks, and Los Angeles Lakers. Chicago’s meeting with Anthony is particularly interesting because the front office is using Taj Gibson and Joakim Noah to sell the team. Both players are notably from New York and are could be there to discuss the transition from New York to Chicago. The inclusion of Gibson in the meeting is particularly interesting because the Bulls may need to move Gibson to even open up enough room to sign Melo outright. Gibson’s presence could be used to convince Anthony to take less money and outline a future in which the Bulls manage to keep him. Derrick Rose will also be at the meeting though this is hardly a surprise.

Anthony isn’t expected to make a decision until the second week of free agency so the Melodrama will continue for some time.

Doug McDermott Trade

In order to avoid posting what is still probably a hot take on my part, I’m allowing the draft day trade Chicago made for Doug McDermott to digest to give fair assessment (spoiler alert- I’m warming up to it). The most interesting part of the trade is the inclusion of Anthony Randolph. By taking on his contract the Bulls have added $1.8 million more in salary to the team which would only hurt the team’s plan to sign a big name free agent. The front office insists that Randolph is a moveable contract which, to their credit, he is. Many teams would be willing to take on an expiring and fairly cheap contract such as his. What is interesting is how the Bulls plan to get his contract off the books. To take him on with McDermott the Bulls had to absorb Randolph into a trade exception. By doing so the circumvented the rule that prevents a traded player from being traded for 2 months, however they are now in a different territory- Randolph cannot be traded in a package. How this will impact free agency, we’ll just have to wait and see.

Backup Plans

As much as everyone would like the Bulls to get Carmelo Anthony, we all must remember that this is the Chicago Bulls and the team has a history of striking out during free agency. Tracy McGrady, Lebron James, Chris Bosh, and Dwayne Wade are just a few of the big names that Chicago hasn’t been able to land in recent history. Chicago has made several contingency plans regarding free agents, many of which they’ve kept close to the chest. A few have leaked though, perhaps most intriguingly Chandler Parsons:

Bulls and Mavs are among the teams to register interest tonight in Rockets’ RFA Chandler Parsons. Rule of thumb: Teams into Melo are into CP

— Marc Stein (@ESPNSteinLine) July 1, 2014

Though he isn’t the best at creating his own shot and is no Carmelo Anthony, Parsons is an intriguing prospect. He can stretch the floor and create some offense. Unfortunately Parsons is a restricted free agent and the Houston Rockets can match any offer so it’ll take a doozy of a contract to get him out of a red jersey. In essence it seems like it could be the JJ Redick scenario once again.

The Amnesty Clause

Let’s briefly circle back to that one guy I mentioned earlier- Carlos Boozer. The Chicago Bulls are one of the few teams who can still use their amnesty clause but have yet to do so. But the question remains- will the Bulls use the amnesty clause on him? If the Bulls can move Boozer in a sign and trade for Carmelo Anthony, there is no doubt the team will pounce on the chance. But will they be willing to pay him to not play for them for a year? Some reports immediately following the situation indicate that they may be and that it’s almost assured that Boozer will be gone after such an abysmal season. But we’ve heard this same story in the past yet Boozer continues to play in a Bulls uniform. The period the Bulls will be able to amnesty Boozer will be next week following the moratorium (technically free agency hasn’t started but negotiations have).

The Chicago Bulls and Nikola Mirotic- The Ross and Rachel of the NBA

Years and years we Bulls fans have been talking about the possibility of Real Madrid star Nikola Mirotic coming over to the NBA. It has essentially become the “will they, wont they?” discussion at this point with Chicago as dorky yet kind of lovable Ross and Mirotic as the always beautiful Rachel that everyone wishes they could have. Recently rumors have surfaced from a Spanish website indicating that Mirotic has played his final game for Real Madrid and that his arrival to the NBA is imminent. Several Bulls blogs have pounced on this story and the rumor has propagated considerably. As of now the front office claims they do not know if Mirotic is coming over and that there is no planned visit to the NBA. For now we can assume nothing regarding Mirotic and if he’ll be joining the Bulls next season. Almost everything depends on what actions the Bulls have to take during these first 2 weeks of free agency, what Carmelo Anthony decides to do with his future, and how much money the team can and must offer him.

Beware the Fake Accounts

The majority of people are now on social media, such as Twitter, and are waiting for the big gun national writers to break stories about who has signed where. Just a word of caution to always double check and make sure that whoever is breaking the news is a verified account. The sheer number of fake Adrian Wojnarowski, Marc Stein, Sam Amick, Ramona Shelburne, etc accounts is daunting and it’s easy to get tricked. As we type many reputable writers have actually been fooled themselves and are having to backtrack on their reporting by deleting tweets. Just be careful in what you read and what you believe in.

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That just about covers everything we could think of. If there’s another story that you believe we should address related to free agency let us know in the comments below. Otherwise happy free agency everyone!

The post Chicago Bulls Free Agency Primer appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

stuartpilbrow | Flickr

The Chicago Bulls are poised to shake things up in a big way this summer. They have a number of available assets, potential significant flexibility under the cap and have been linked to at least three relatively high-profile players in Arron Afflalo, Kevin Love and Carmelo Anthony. And then there’s LeBron James, who just kind of hovers over everything.

The fact is that there are about 300 different scenarios for the Bulls this summer. I’ve come up with about 20 in the last three days without even trying. But right now I’m going to break them down in the simplest terms, lumping them together into kind of general ideas. Let’s start with Thursday’s draft.

Draft Scenario 1: The Bulls keep both picks 16 and 19 and use them on players that will be on the team next season.

This one is pretty straightforward. Rather than trade up or down or use one or both picks to acquire a veteran or taking an overseas player they could stash, the Bulls just stand pat and pick two guys they like.

The corollary to this scenario is that if the Bulls do this, they could well be picking for another team. More on that later.

Draft Scenario 2: The Bulls trade up.

The Bulls have been rumored to be interested in trading up. First it was packaging 16 and 19 for 11, targeting Nik Stauskas or Gary Harris. Then it was moving up to 8th, where they would take Doug McDermott. It’s possible that moving up to 8 would require Taj Gibson to be involved, but that gets tricky because then Sacramento would have to match salaries and they just don’t have anything the Bulls would want.

But a trade-up scenario makes sense for two reasons. One, Tom Thibodeau doesn’t really like playing rookies and swapping two picks for one pick allows the team to sign a veteran instead of another rookie. And two, it would save the Bulls some money under the cap. The 11th pick in this year’s draft would make just under $1.9 million. The 8th pick would make just under $2.3 million. The 16th and 19th picks combined would make about $3.75 million. That doesn’t seem like a lot, but every bit helps in this kind of situation.

Draft Scenario 3: The Bulls draft at least one international prospect that they stash overseas.

Dario Saric stands out as a guy who would fit with the Bulls plans, after word broke Monday that he would be staying in Europe for at least the next two or three years. Scouts love his talent, and he might have gone in the top 10 if he’d been willing to come over immediately. It’s reminiscent of Nikola Mirotic in 2011, really: a guy with obvious talent who drops to a team who’s willing to wait for him.

Drafting Saric or another international prospect allows the Bulls to eliminate that pick from their cap this summer. So it wouldn’t shock me if the Bulls traded up to secure Saric, as that would eliminate both picks from their cap number and guarantee them a juicy asset down the road.

Draft Scenario 4: One or both picks is traded for a veteran.

Arron Afflalo seems like the obvious candidate, though the Bulls’ reported offer to the Minnesota Timberwolves for Kevin Love is Taj Gibson, Tony Snell and both picks. There’s also been some chatter that the Bulls just want a veteran wing scorer, like Afflalo or whoever. Either way, there’s a decent chance the Bulls don’t even have one or both of their picks by draft day.

So that’s the draft. Now there’s everything else.

Offseason Scenario 1: Carmelo Anthony Sign and Trade

This is what the Bulls would like to do. Boozer and picks and maybe a lesser asset like Snell or Mike Dunleavy would go to New York and Melo would come to Chicago. Centering the trade on Boozer allows the Bulls to stay over the cap, leaving them free to use the full mid-level exception to bring the aforementioned Nikola Mirotic over from Europe. But the Knicks are resisting taking back Boozer, so I guess we’ll see how everything shakes out.

By the way, there’s been come confusion about including this year’s draft picks in a Melo sign and trade, so let me clear that up. A sign and trade couldn’t happen until after the moratorium ends on July 10, which seems to rule out trading the picks. But the Bulls could simply draft a prospect the Knicks like and trade their rights to New York after the moratorium ends. Technically, the Bulls and Knicks can’t exactly have conversations about this now, since that would be illegal under the CBA, but Phil Jackson has been pretty vocal about his love for PJ Hairston, which could be a cue to the Bulls that he would like them to take Hairston and trade him to them. But the point is that you can trade picks after the draft.

Offseason Scenario 2: The Bulls trade for Kevin Love.

As I mentioned earlier, the Bulls have made an offer to Love. It is something of a lowball, yes, but I’m torn between trashing the Bulls for lowballing when they have a chance to get a superstar and applauding them for negotiating like pros. Golden State’s offer for Love was a joke, and Boston’s young guys are mildly terrible. The Phoenix Suns could pretty much trump everyone in terms of picks and young guys, but it’s unclear whether Love would re-sign there once he becomes a free agent. So the Bulls, by offering such a minimalist package, put themselves in position to call Minnesota on draft night and add Mirotic to the deal as a sweetener, which suddenly seems like a big get.

I still consider this unlikely to happen, but god knows I’ve been wrong before.

Offseason Scenario 3: The Bulls sign Melo outright.

This one gets tricky because it basically requires the Bulls to either dump Taj or convince Melo to take less. The Bulls can open up about $20 million by discharging their obligations to pay for their draft picks and finding a taker for Mike Dunleavy. That might be enough to bring Melo over or it might not. Their hope, I’m sure, would be to convince Melo to take $20 million, line up the deals to clear the space, and then approach the Knicks about a sign-and-trade. That way, the Bulls have all the leverage because the Knicks would otherwise be left with nothing when Melo leaves. But if Phil turns up his nose, the Bulls can go ahead with their deals and sign him outright.

I covered the financial aspect of this scenario over the weekend, though I theorized Melo might be willing to take just $15 million.

Offseason Scenario 4: The “fuller roster” approach with Arron Afflalo

In this scenario, the Bulls would eschew both Love and Melo and focus on building depth. The Bulls could conceivably send Tony Snell, one or both draft picks and maybe someone like Mike Dunleavy to the Orlando Magic and absorb Afflalo into their cap space once they amnesty Carlos Boozer. The deal could be agreed to on draft night, allowing the Bulls to pick for the Magic explicitly, though it wouldn’t go into effect until after the moratorium.

From there, they could bring Mirotic over using what’s left of their cap space (about $10 million if the Afflalo deal includes both picks, Dunleavy and Snell) and use the rest, as well as the $2.7 million “room” exception to fill out the rest of the roster. This doesn’t have the star power of some of the other options, but it is reminiscent of 2010, when the Bulls picked up a lesser star (Boozer then, Afflalo now) and filled the roster out around them and won 62 games.

Offseason Scenario 5: Love and Melo

This can go two ways. Pretty much any hypothetical Love trade is essentially cap-neutral. If a Love trade centered on Taj — for instance, the one they’ve reportedly offered — goes through, the Bulls could still amnesty Boozer and trade Dunleavy and have a decent chunk of cap space. So they could theoretically sign Melo outright. But if it’s centered on Boozer, or if they have to take back Kevin Martin as part of the agreement, it would have to be a sign and trade. The good news is that acquiring Love in a trade centered on Boozer would free the Bulls up to offer Taj to the Knicks for Melo, an offer that seems like it would be more palatable to New York than Boozer and picks.

The most plausible scenario — and it’s not terribly plausible, sadly — would be the Bulls getting Love and Martin in exchange for Boozer, Dunleavy, Snell, Mirotic and some combination of picks. Then they could offer Taj, $4 million in non-guaranteed contracts and whatever’s left of their pick stash to New York and sign Melo to a contract starting at $17 million. If they somehow managed to pull that off — not likely — they would have 8 players (Rose, Love, Melo, Martin, Joakim Noah, Greg Smith, Jimmy Butler and their 2nd round pick this year) under contract for $73 million. If they filled out their roster with only minimum salaries, they might not even pay the tax.

Alas, this won’t happen. Moving on.

Offseason Scenario 6: Melo and Afflalo

This one is less complicated, though still extremely unlikely. Trading Afflalo for the aforementioned Dunleavy/Snell/picks package is also more or less salary-neutral, then Boozer and picks would go to New York. Or the Bulls could amnesty Boozer and sign Melo outright. Either way.

Offseason Scenario 7: Standing pat.

Basically, the Bulls could just stick with what they have. Hold on to their picks. Bring Mirotic over, probably with cap space created by a Boozer amnesty. Fill in the roster around the guys they already have. It’s the most boring scenario, but frankly the most likely. The Bulls are notoriously risk-averse and like holding on to “their” guys. Maybe they make a couple of minor moves, but nothing too crazy.

Offseason Scenario 8: LeBron.

Yeah… no. Let’s just not even talk about this. We’re done here.

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jtyerse | Flickr

As you are presumably aware by now, the Philadelphia 76ers went on a one-team crusade to acquire the entire second round of this year’s draft at the trade deadline. Already in possession of a couple second round picks, they nabbed five more over this year and the next two by trading away Spencer Hawes and trading for Eric Maynor and Byron Mullens.

You might rightly ask what general manager Sam Hinkie’s plan is with all those picks. Tom Haberstroh of ESPN.com took on that question today, and he theorized that because of the harsher luxury tax penalties in the new CBA, and because first round picks are significantly more expensive than second rounders, Hinkie likely will shop his second round picks to teams worried about the luxury tax who also have surplus picks towards the end of the first round.

So where do second-rounders come in? Good question. First-round picks are not only more expensive than second-rounders, but they also count against the cap regardless of whether they are signed. The key is that second-rounders, by rule, do not. So cost-conscious teams looking to preserve precious cap space in summer free-agent sweepstakes or looking to shave down their luxury-tax bill can still add talent to fill out the roster by unloading a first-round pick for a couple of second-rounders.

A tax-flirting team like Chicago, which holds two late-first-round picks next season (Charlotte’s first-rounder goes to Chicago if it doesn’t fall in the top 10 via the Tyrus Thomas deal), could improve its flexibility by swapping a first-rounder with Hinkie for say, the No. 32 pick and the No. 39 pick. Same goes for Oklahoma City, a team that also holds two late-first-rounders in the 2014 draft. Though it doesn’t seem like much in February, second-rounders could hold serious currency for capped-out teams come June.

Furthermore, second-rounders are far cheaper for tax purposes than picking up free agents off the scrap heap. As astutely pointed out by SB Nation’s Mark Deeks, there’s a reason why center Erik Murphy remains on the Bulls’ roster even though he never plays: As a second-round pick, he is saving them about $1 million in luxury-tax penalties compared to a similar non-drafted rookie thanks to the fine print in the CBA. With a repeater tax on the horizon, CBA minutiae matters more now than ever.

via What Are Second Rounders Worth? — ESPN (Insider)

We will, for the moment, leave aside Haberstroh’s assertion that Erik Murphy is a center when we’ve actually seen him most recently as a nominal small forward. What is important here is that he specifically names the Chicago Bulls as a team that might send out a first rounder to Philly for probably two or three second rounders.

While trading out of the first round of one of the best drafts in recent memory seems abhorrent — I certainly abhor it, for whatever that’s worth — there’s plenty of reason to think it could happen. Mainly, that Jerry Reinsdorf is incredibly cheap and likes to save his money rather than spend it. Well, on the Bulls, anyway.

There are two scenarios where such a thing might actually make some modicum of sense. One if the Bulls follow through with their amnesty of Carlos Boozer, one if they don’t.

If they don’t amnesty Boozer,* and we’ve heard rumblings to that effect in recent months, then the Bulls will find themselves hanging right around the cap line before making any further moves, with around $63 million in salary committed to 8 players. Two first round picks bring that number up around $66 million, perhaps a little higher, for 10 players, plus ~$500K for their second round pick, which gets us to about $67 million for 11 players. In that case, we’d have to assume that the Bulls would use their full mid-level exception to bring over Nikola Mirotic, if at all possible. That takes them up to about $72 million, which would be pushing right up against the luxury tax line. And note that, in this scenario, DJ Augustin is not on the roster, or if he is, he’s making a little less than $2 million, which would probably push the Bulls into the tax. That’s a problem for Mr. Reinsdorf, particularly in light of the new repeater tax. As long as the Bulls stay under the tax line this season, that wouldn’t apply unless they pay the tax in 2014-15 and 2015-16, but let’s just assume JR would prefer not to pay the tax in either of those years if he can avoid it.

*Note: This scenario also applies to a hypothetical Boozer-Carmelo Anthony sign and trade, which is unlikely to happen, but you never know.

If we swap in two second rounders for one of the first rounders, the Bulls could save themselves about $1.5 million in salary if they let DJ walk — one million from the drop from a first to a second, another half million saved in not paying the veteran’s minimum to fill out the roster.

Meanwhile, if Boozer DOES get amnestied, that $1.5 million kicks in again, only this time it’s another $1.5 million in cap space. Alternatively, it’s just another $1.5 million JR doesn’t have to spend on filling out the roster. Supposing Mirotic signs for something in the $7-8 million range, and Augustin comes back for something in the $2 million range, that leaves us with around $60 million committed to 12 players with the two first rounders compared to $59.5 million to 13 with the two seconds. That obviously doesn’t sound like much of a difference, but the difference between $3 million and $3.5 million isn’t to be sneezed at. This year, that’s approximately the difference between Greg Stiemsma and Jordan Hill, which is not insignificant. Granted, Stiemsma only makes about $2.7 million this year, but I’m counting that as close enough.

(There is, by the way, no real benefit to drafting two players in the second round and then cutting them to gain cap space. The cap charge for unused roster spots is virtually identical to the salary they would be paid, and you’d still have to fill those spots eventually.)

Let me reiterate that I think such a move would be stupid. First rounders, even late first rounders, are much more likely to be productive players than second rounders. Look at Jimmy Butler, the very last pick in the first round of the 2011 draft, as compared to 32nd overall pick Justin Harper, who lasted all of a year with the Orlando Magic, barely played, and is now in Israel. And keep in mind that this year’s draft is considered to be incredibly deep, so the odds of getting a productive player are even higher than they normally would be. But the possibility of saving money has never stopped The Chairman from making the on-court product slightly worse. And there is some slight merit to the idea in terms of maximizing cap space, as outlined above, though probably not enough to make it worth it.

I suppose we’ll find out in June.

All salary numbers that I did not invent for the sake of my hypothetical come via ShamSports.

The post Don’t be surprised if the Chicago Bulls trade a pick to save money appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Avi Saini: I’m unsure. It’s hard to say mainly because no one really knows what the future plans are at the moment. There have been talks for a while now saying that the Bulls are potentially looking at making a run at one of the big name free agents during the 2014 offseason. If that’s the case then it seems as if Deng doesn’t fit into the front office’s plan. However, financially the Bulls don’t have enough cap space to get one of the big name free agents and bring over Nikola Mirotic at the same time. I believe we’ll get a more definite answer later on in the season if the front office begins to participate in trades to free up money.

Braedan Ritter: Assuming the Bulls’ plan is to win a championship, then I believe he does fit in. Deng is a top-tier defender, a good all-around player and Tom Thibodeau’s workhorse. He has led the league in minutes per game the last two seasons, and even though his shooting numbers have dipped in recent years, he is still one of the most important members of the Bulls (even more so when they are facing the Heat). Chicago has to cut costs though, as they don’t want to be in the tax for a third consecutive year—which they may face in 2014-2015—and letting Deng walk would be an easy way to drop a lot of salary (letting him walk also frees up some cash to try and sign a bigger name free agent). Deng fits into the plan to win a championship, but his contract doesn’t, and the Bulls seem to always side with what pockets them the most money. He won’t fit into the future plans unless he takes a discount to stay in Chicago.

Matt McHale: Deng is a do-everything wing player who always goes full-tilt and plays elite defense at multiple positions. He’s also highly respected by his Bulls teammates and an absolute favorite of coach Tom Thibodeau. And with an actual summer off to rest and recover from lingering injuries that included a fractured thumb and damage to ligaments in his left wrist, Deng might actually be capable of playing better and more efficiently than he has the past two seasons, during which he was selected for back-to-back All-Star appearances. So there’s no question Deng fits in with whatever the Bulls could possibly be planning from a pure basketball perspective. Frankly, there aren’t many places in the NBA where he wouldn’t fit in as a player.

Unfortunately, re-signing Deng may not make much financial sense. The generally accepted premise is that Lu could demand a multi-year contract that pays around $12 annually. According to ShamSports, the Bulls are due to pay around $55 million in 2014-15 for the combination of Carlos Boozer, Derrick Rose, Joakim Noah and Taj Gibson. Adding another $12 million for Deng pushes that number up to $67 million. Even if management uses the amnesty provision to cut Boozer’s $16.8 million salary for that season, the Bulls would be left with no flexibility to pursue another star to pair with Rose.

Even if you love what Deng does for the Bulls — and who wouldn’t? — we’re talking about a player with a long injury history who is edging ever closer to 30 and (as Bill Simmons might point out) already has almost 700 games and nearly 25,000 minutes on his NBA odometer (combined regular season and playoffs). Forget the immediate future. Is Deng going to be worth $12 million per year three or four years from now?

About the only way I can imagine Deng wearing a Bulls uniform past next season is if he agrees to take a pretty major pay cut. And why would he do that?

2. Which teams might try to sign or trade for Deng?

Avi Saini: The only teams I can see wanting to trade for Deng are teams who want to try to make a run at the big name free agents next offseason. Deng’s $14 million expiring deal would free up a sizable chunk of change and is attractive for teams trying to free up money. However, the only situation in which Deng would be traded to one of those teams is if Gar Foreman and John Paxson give up their 2014 plan for good. As far as teams that may sign Deng during the offseason, I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again, any team that completely strikes out on the big name free agents next year will look to make a run at Deng.

Braedan Ritter: Teams that want to trade for him at the deadline would most likely be looking for his expiring contract so that they can let him walk at the end of the season and go after one of the potential max contract free agents. It’ll be interesting whether or not Chicago shops him at the deadline. If the Bulls really don’t think they’ll resign Deng in the offseason, and they know better than anyone else would of their intentions, they should at least try and get something in return for him. This would put a big dent in their title hopes, but by mid-season there will also be a clearer championship picture and maybe it would be in the Bulls best interest to shake things up.

Those big-name free agents will also play a role in where Deng will land this summer. Whichever teams miss out on the bigger names will go at Deng, and some of those teams could potentially have a lot of money if they whiff on other players. Lu would be a great addition to any team that is looking for a veteran small forward.

Matt McHale: As I pointed out above, Deng skills and willingness to do whatever his team needs would make him a great fit virtually anywhere. However, he’s not going to get the numbers he wants from a championship contender. Brooklyn, Houston, Indiana, Miami, Oklahoma City, San Antonio…none of the teams projected to be legitimate contenders in the next few seasons will have an extra $12 million-ish to sign Deng with. Assuming the Bulls are unable to trade him during the upcoming season or work out a sign-and-trade deal next summer, some middling or lower echelon team may try to make a big splash by signing a known commodity with great pedigree. Maybe it’ll be the Philadelphia 76ers. Maybe the Orlando Magic. Etc.

3. Fact or Fiction: Deng will resign with the Bulls next summer.

Avi Saini: Fiction. Continuing with my line of thought from the previous question, any team that strikes out on the big name players will overreact to their offseason failures then turn to Deng and make a hard push to get him. Part of this, as recent offseason history suggests, means that a team will be willing to pay Deng around $14 million per year, roughly what he is making now and roughly what the Sacramento Kings set Deng’s market value at when they were bidding on Andre Iguodala. Unfortunately Chicago will be cash strapped for several years to come and will not be able to offer Deng around what he could get on the market without severely hampering their future. Because the NBA is a business and Deng, like 99% of all athletes, needs to make as much money as he can to last him the rest of his life, I see him taking the larger deal and leaving Chicago.

Braedan Ritter: Fiction. I think the Bulls want Deng to take a hometown discount, and Deng sees this as his last chance to get paid. I assume Kirk Hinrich and perhaps even Carlos Boozer will be following Lu out the door after this year as the Bulls go in a different direction, still building around Derrick Rose and Joakim Noah. You can’t blame Deng for looking for a big payday, especially considering its unclear how much time he has left on his over-worked body. I suspect at least one team will overpay Deng with a deal that puts him out of the Bulls’ price range.

Matt McHale: Fiction. I can’t see it happening for all the reasons I outlined above. If the Bulls want to bring in another top talent to compliment Rose — and they simply must to have any hope of competing with the Miami Heats and Oklahoma City Thunders of the NBA world — there’s no way they can commit to paying Deng $12 million or more per year for the next four to five seasons. Not given the risks involved due to his age, injury history, and the general wear and tear of his career-to-date. And there’s little chance Deng will pass up the opportunity to do what’s best for him financially. Nor should he. But the most likely scenario I can foresee is Deng making a lot of money and losing a lot of games for a lesser team.

The post 3-on-3: Luol Deng’s future appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Said Brewer: “I will definitely test the market though. Whatever team I end up going to, I know I’m going to have another improved year.”

Of course, it could be that part of the reason Brewer’s option wasn’t picked up is that he didn’t really have an improved year last season.

In 2010-11, Brewer averaged 6.2 PPG while shooting 48 percent from the field and 22 percent from downtown. He also added 3.2 RPG and 1.7 APG.

In 2011-12, he upped his scoring average slightly to 6.9 PPG but — after a hot start — his shooting dropped to 42.7 percent.

Brewer’s Player Efficiency Rating (PER) also dropped from 13.8 to 12.3 and his Win Shares Per 48 Minutes went from .147 to .113.

Comparatively, Jimmy Butler posted a PER of 12.5 and a Win Shares Per 48 Minutes of .144 last season, which project him to be about as good as Brewer.

In fact, Brewer’s Per 36 Minute stats (10.0 PPG, 5.1 RPG, 3.0 APG) are nearly identical to Butler’s (10.9 PPG, 5.6 RPG, 1.4 APG).

That’s not to undervalue Brewer’s contributions…it simply shows that the notion of letting him walk (or even possibly re-signing him at a reduced rate) may not be the the crazy/cheap move by management some fans are making it out to be.

Regarding the team’s decision, Brewer added: “They just said they’re going in a different direction and might try to sign me back once the dust settles with different trades and whatnot at a lower salary so they won’t go over the luxury tax or maybe something with a sign-and-trade situation. Who knows? My agent expressed to Gar that I appreciated the opportunity he gave me in Chicago. I enjoyed my time there.

“Coach (Tom Thibodeau) is one of the best coaches in the NBA, hands down. We’ve had a good group of guys with great chemistry in the locker room. It wouldn’t be out of the picture to go back, but I have to give other teams options to make an offer.”

As for Kyle Korver, Neil Hayes of the Chicago Sun-Times writes: “A different source said the Bulls were exploring sign-and-trade possibilities that could send Kyle Korver to the Minnesota Timberwolves or Atlanta Hawks, although his return to the Bulls hasn’t been ruled out.”

The Bulls have until Sunday to make up their mind on Korver.

Note: Stats provided by Basketball-Reference.

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Losing Brad is a pretty big bummer, but there was no way the Bulls were going to tie up $5 million per year in cap space in a 34-year-old backup center who played most of last season like he had one foot in an NBA retirement home. And there was no way Miller could be expected to turn down a payday like that.

Still, I’ll miss his slick jump shot (even if he took a few too many of them), his pinpoint passes (even if he forced a few too many of them), and those cunning head fakes that enabled him to make a determined if slow and awkward drive to the hoop.

You know who else is going to miss him? Joakim Noah.

According to Nick Friedell of ESPNChicago.com: “The pair struck up a bond after Miller was traded back to the Bulls in the middle of the 2008-09 season. They could usually be seen joking around about something in the Bulls locker room and Noah consistently referred to his buddy as ‘The Duck.’ The Bulls had hoped to bring back Miller to continue to serve as a backup center/mentor to Noah.”

Ah, but if wishes were fishes, the world would be an ocean.

In a text message to ESPNChicago.com, Noah said: “I learned a lot from Brad. It’s going to be very different with him not around. He’s a real professional. I wish him nothing but the best. We’re going to miss the bash brothers.”

We certainly will.

Now, in addition to a backup point guard, the Bulls are going to have to shop around for another big man. It’s going to be pretty tough to find somebody who does everything Miller did.

The post Brad Miller is taking his jumpers and hard fouls to Houston appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

These are the Bulls' "hot spots." For the record, gray is not good.

As the Bulls prepare for their game against the Los Angeles Clippers — the second stop on their current seven-game Western Conference road trip — Vinny Del Negro has some very real concerns to deal with. Forget the fact that his team could be without John Salmons, who spent Monday night in an Oakland hospital with flu-like symptoms, or that Kirk Hinrich’s status is unknown due to his own bout with flu-like symptoms, or even that he has to figure out a way to deal with L.A.’s Chris Kaman, who has very quietly become a real force inside (20.4 PPG, 9.3 RPG, 1.4 BPG).

Vinny’s biggest problem is that the Golden State Warriors provided a perfect blueprint for beating the Bulls, which is allowing and even enticing them into relying on their favorite field goal attemp. I’m talking about the long-range two-point jump shot.

If you read this blog and/or follow the Bulls with any regularity, you already know Chicago’s players love to shoot contested jumpers from that dreaded No Man’s Land between the paint and the three-point arc. Well, Tom Haberstroh of Hoopdata has provided some hard numbers to back up this little nugget of common knowledge.

According to Haberstroh: “From Hoopdata’s XeFG% page, we can see that 35.7 percent of Bulls shots are taken 16 to 23 feet away from the basket which, according to my digging, is by far the highest team portion of the last four years. One would think that the Bulls live in The Land Where Offenses Die because they were actually good shooters from 16-23 feet, but here’s the thing: they are terrible from there. As a team, the Bulls shoot 36.1 percent on long twos which is well below the league average of 39.6 percent. That might not seem like a big difference on the surface but in the last four years, only this year’s New Jersey Nets and the Isiah Thomas-led New York Knicks of 2006-07 fare worse from this area. So if you’re scoring from home, the Bulls love taking shots from a zone where they rank 118 out of 120 teams. Not only that, even though the Bulls frequent the long range shot, they almost never launch where the payoff is higher in 3-point land.”

Uh oh.

Haberstroh goes on to point out that both Derrick Rose and Luol Deng attempt more than six shots per game from No Man’s Land, and that Deng has the league’s second-worst field goal percentage among players who attempt at least four shots per game from that 16-23 foot range. Haberstroh also notes that Rose, by virtue of his ability to penetrate almost at will, would benefit greatly from pick-and-pop big men…only his frontcourt contingent includes a group of players who don’t have an efficient midrange game (Joakim Noah, Taj Gibson and Tyrus Thomas) and one other who can hit from midrange but appears to be almost washed up (Brad Miller).

In other words, not only is Chicago’s offense fundamentally flawed, it lacks the personnel necessary to take advantage of its greatest asset (Rose). Again, none of this is particularly surprising. I’ve been blogging these very things all season. Now we have the statistical analysis to back it up.

What can the Bulls do? Conventional wisdom says they should start attacking the basket at every opportunity. However, there’s one small problem with that tactic. Hoopdata recently published another article about the five worst games at the rim this season. Guess which team “earned” the first, third and fifth spots on that list? That’s right. Your Chicago Bulls! In the three games listed in that article, the Bulls missed 72 shots at the rim. And those weren’t aberration games. For the season, the Bulls convert only 55.4 percent of their shots at the rim. That’s the third-worst mark in the league.

Uh oh again.

Of course, these problems feed into each other. The Bulls can’t shoot, so teams pack the paint, which leads to scads of missed shots at the basket. The Bulls know they struggle to finish at the rim, so more often than not they bail out by taking loads of shots they can’t make. It’s like the Bulls have to choose between two poisoned drinks, only they haven’t spent the last five years building up a resistance to iocane powder.

So I ask again, what can the Bulls do?

Nothing.

Not right now, anyway. Like I said, it’s a personnel issue. They don’t have three-point shooters. They don’t have efficient midrange shooters. They don’t have an inside scorer or any big men who can play off Rose by knocking down jumpers or powering through multiple defenders for the finish. Unless management pulls off a miracle deal before the trade deadline, the Bulls are doomed to feature one of the league’s worst offenses for the rest of the season.

This makes future planning almost ridiculously important. After this season ends, half of the current roster will probably be gone, and the Bulls (as far as we can tell) plan to spend big money on a top-notch free agent. And they’d better spend wisely, because the next three to five years of the franchise are at stake.

Think about it. Rose is the future, so we know he’s staying. The Bulls are stuck with Deng’s cap-killing contract through 2014, so we know he’ll be around. If Chicago signs a big name free agent to a four or five-year deal, probably for a lot of money, that player will almost certainly be a Bull for the bulk of that deal. That means we’re looking at a three-man core of Rose, Deng and Player X.

Player X damn well better be able to compliment Rose.

Ideally, Player X will be a big man who can hit consistently from midrange, swoop in for high-powered completions at the rim, and have some kind of low post game. Amar’e Stoudemire fits two of those bills, and he’ll be available on the open market this summer. Of course, Stoudemire has plenty of baggage. He’s had multiple knee surgeries. He doesn’t aggressively pursue contested rebounds. He doesn’t have a single inside move. And we don’t know how much of his success the last few years has been the product of playing alongside Steve Nash in the Phoenix Suns’ run-and-gun system. He might play well off Rose, but then again, Rose is no Nash, and the Bulls don’t have the shooters necessary to open up the space Stoudemire uses to shoot and drive.

Based on his shooting stats, Chris Bosh might be a viable alternative, but there’s no telling where he’ll end up.

There’s no easy answer. We only know that, for the Bulls to build successfully around their franchise player, they’re going to have to put a team together that is drastically different than the one they have right now. And if they make one or two bad decisions, they could be bad for several more years. Not exactly a pleasant prospect.

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