From Flickr via Joseph Glorioso

Player:

DJ Augustin

Per game stats:

61 games played, 9 games started
30.4 minutes
14.9 points per game; 41.9% FG%; 41.1% 3P
5.0 assists per game, 2.9 rebounds per game, 1.9 turnovers per game, 0.9 steals per game

The Good:

This is still incredibly weird to say but DJ Augustin was one of the major reasons why Chicago’s season didn’t go down the toilet following the Luol Deng trade. Roughly around the time Deng was shipped off to Cleveland, Augustin really came into his own in Thibodeau’s system and took over as the team’s leading scorer. His spark off the bench helped reinvigorate Chicago’s league worst offense… to a degree. Though he wasn’t a prolific passer, Augustin’s movement both on the ball and off helped diversify Chicago’s offense. His three point shooting abilities helped space out the floor, side-to-side movement helped open up lanes to drive or cut into, and he was able to run the pick-and-roll relatively well with all of the team’s big men. While playing for the Bulls, Augustin managed to put up his highest points per game of his career.

The Bad:

While Augustin helped provide a much needed offensive spark off the bench (and in general), his shooting percentage could stand to be a bit better. Roughly 42% isn’t anything to be proud of especially if you’re a player who’s career was all but over like Augustin. To his credit he was essentially the only shot creator on the floor at any given time which, for a guy who reaches 6’0″ in shoes, isn’t exactly ideal. It would have been nice to see what Augustin could have done if teams didn’t realize he was going to do most of the shot creating or cut into a lane waiting for Joakim Noah to pass the ball.

One of the knocks on Augustin through his career has also been somewhat poor decision making and that still seems to be an issue, though not nearly as much as it once was. Augustin had a tendency to force or loft passes too much which put the team at a high risk of turning the ball over. Additionally Augustin had a tendency to settle for pull-up three point jumpers, something that was most evident during Chicago’s first round matchup.

Lastly, and most importantly, Augustin’s defense was a gaping hole. As much as I love Augustin and advocate Chicago bringing him back next season, his defense either needs to be improved or Thibodeau needs to find a work around. Augustin has a tendency of allowing quicker guards, like John Wall and Bradley Beal, to get by him which creates numerous problems for the team’s defense (should the guard pass the ball well).

Grade: B+

I want to give Augustin an “A-” but ignoring my bias in favor of him, I have to give him a B+. His offense was critical to Chicago’s success and is the biggest reason for the high grade despite the issues he had on defense. Additionally, seeing him resurrect his career from the ashes when no one ever expected him to was fun to watch.

Future:

Augustin is set to be a free agent this offseason after becoming a mid-season waiver wire signing for Chicago. Like Nate Robinson, John Lucas III, and CJ Watson before him, Augustin has seemingly played his way to a multimillion dollar deal. Regardless of what moves are made, Chicago will have the opportunity to resign Augustin with either cap space or the bi-annual mid-level exception. DJ Augustin has expressed a desire to return to Chicago so there may be a bit of a hometown discount, especially considering Augustin’s results are likely a result of Thibodeau’s system (keep in mind Watson, Lucas III, and Nate Robinson haven’t experienced similar success since leaving Chicago). But given Thibodeau’s system with randomly picked up guards, one has to wonder if the Bulls will simply go looking for the next miracle guard. In an offseason filled with uncertainty, it’ll be an interesting story to watch.

The post 2013-2014 Year In Review: DJ Augustin appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

CrazyFast | Flickr

It can easily be argued that the Chicago Bulls are out of the playoffs, having lost their series with the Washington Wizards 4-1, because of Tom Thibodeau’s stubbornness, and his seeming refusal to make any significant adjustments.

I am not here to argue that point, though the Bulls got whooped with their starters on the floor in all five games and Thibs never seemed to even consider starting Taj Gibson. I am here to talk about why he stuck so doggedly with a clearly failing lineup.

The playoffs are, by their very nature, a high-profile exercise in Small Sample Size Theatre. Even a series that goes seven games only provides you with seven games worth of data. Those seven games then have to be weighed against the 82 games of data you’ve accumulated in the regular season. As a result, any adjustment you make runs the risk of being seen as a ridiculous overreaction in hindsight. You’d have to make the conscious decision to let a few games — we’ll say four, in Thibs’ case, though you could say three or two or one and I wouldn’t argue with you — override many games — 52 in Thibs’ case, since we’ll count from the beginning of 2014, when the Bulls turned their season around.

From January 1 through the end of the regular season, the Bulls’ starters (Kirk Hinrich, Jimmy Butler, Mike Dunleavy, Carlos Boozer and Joakim Noah) were 5.2 points per 100 possessions better than their opponents. They allowed 92.7 points per 100, a ludicrous number that would’ve led the league by a country mile. That number has 37 games and 610 minutes behind it, so it seems like it should be a reliable indicator of how that lineup would perform in the playoffs.

Instead, in 74 minutes over 5 games, that same lineup allowed 110.9 points per 100, scored 89.2, and finished 21.8 points per 100 WORSE than its opponents. Stretched over a full season, even the Philadelphia 76ers would laugh at the sheer incompetence on display.

So, put yourself in Thibs’ position, though keep in mind that none of us have any idea if Thibs puts any stock whatsoever in lineup data: Going into game five, are you ready to throw out 37 games worth of data in your starters’ favor based on four games worth of data?

Another thing I feel I should point out: Boozer, great teammate though he is, is a human being with feelings and an ego. We don’t know how he might have reacted to seeing Taj Gibson start games for him. Remember how Boozer complained back in February about not playing in the fourth quarter? One of the things Thibs said in the aftermath of that incident was that everyone has to sacrifice. Taj is sacrificing not starting, so Boozer is sacrificing not finishing.

So now, imagine that you’re Thibs, and you have to tell Boozer that not only will he be sitting his ass firmly on the bench down the stretch, he won’t be starting either. And keep in mind that Boozer still thinks of himself as a premier player and that he knows he’ll likely be out on the free agent market this summer via the amnesty. How do you think he would react?

Do either of these arguments mean that Thibs definitely was right? No. And I want the record to show that I was firmly in the “Taj should be starting” camp as early as game three — though really it’s been since 2012 sometime, but that’s not the point — and I think it was a huge mistake to keep throwing Boozer out there over Taj (and Kirk Hinrich over DJ Augustin, to a lesser extent). But coaching is a hard job. Thibs did the best he could, it just didn’t work out. That’s hot it goes, sometimes, and let’s not pretend his players did him any favors.

Anyway, feel free to be upset. That was a terrible series to watch. Just remember that things aren’t always as simple as we’d like them to be.

The post On Tom Thibodeau’s playoff adjustments, or lack thereof appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

Photo courtesy of @RandallJSanders

DJ Augustin is enjoying one of the best seasons of his career. Since joining Chicago he’s posted 14.0 points per game on 43% shooting and 41.9% three point shooting, 5.9 assists per game, and a 17.3 PER- all numbers that are in line with or better than his career highs. At this point he’s earned Tom Thibodeau’s trust- evident through a boost in playing time over the past 12 games- and has rewarded Thibodeau with 18.9 ppg on 45.8% shooting (47.3% three point shooting) and 6.3 apg.

It’s stunning that a guy who was discarded by the Charlotte Bobcats, is playing on his fourth team in three years, and gives us gems like…

…is having a career year and helping Chicago keep their season afloat in the process. Though as amazing as it is we shouldn’t be shocked by Augustin’s resurgence because it’s the same old story playing out for the third year in a row. Once again a third string point guard (or would be third string if Derrick Rose were healthy) is having one of the best seasons of his career under Thibodeau. It happened before with John Lucas III and Nate Robinson (and arguably Derrick Rose if you want to lump in his jump to MVP-level play in 2010), and now it’s happening with Augustin. But what is going on in Chicago for this trend to keep repeating itself?

The first possible explanation is that Thibodeau is some kind of evil wizard using magic to make all of the guards good.

Photo courtesy of @RandallJSanders

But that’s obviously not it (despite how fitting the image is). The simple, obvious, and more boring answer is that Thibodeau has developed a system and offensive game plan that makes him a point guard whisperer of sorts. Just like with any other system, a guard’s success in the offense is dependent on multiple facets; however, there tends to be one aspect of the offense that acts as the backbone for everything. In Chicago’s case that’s lateral ball movement.

Chicago’s side-to-side ball movement around the perimeter serves to create offensive opportunities for a team composed of players who struggle to generate their own shot. By moving the ball around, the Bulls force defenses off balance by making them constantly shift their positioning. When used in conjunction with on and off ball screens this forces defensive breakdowns for Chicago to exploit, primarily pick-and-roll driving lanes for the guard, spot up shots, and lanes for players to cut into (12.6%, 17.5%, and 11.4% of plays, respectfully according to Synergy Sports).

A simple sight test is enough to see that Thibodeau’s system has been and is heavily point guard dominated. Calculations made from SportsVu Player Tracking and the NBA’s statistics page supports this notion. On any given possession this season the point guards control the ball for an average of 6.2 seconds whereas everyone else who plays 20+ minutes/game only has the ball for roughly 1.3 seconds. Because the guards dominate the ball, they’re involved in a significant number of Chicago’s most run types of scoring plays (listed above), which partially explains why guards increase their scoring and assist numbers under Thibodeau.

While Chicago’s offense stems from the lateral passes, the importance of the bigs within the system can’t be understated. According to Synergy Sports, 26.2% of all of Chicago’s scoring opportunities are generated by some sort of screen. Without effective play from the bigs Chicago’s offense would become stagnant and the team’s efficiency and effectiveness would drop. Significant credit for the offense’s and point guards’ success should be given to Joakim Noah, the primary screen setter. According to a study by Vantage Sports, Noah is one of the league’s best at setting screens based on the numbers of “solid screens set” and positive offensive opportunities his screens create. With Noah on the floor, the guards also see a general bump in their shooting in the paint and restricted area.

While there are some added complexities to Thibodeau’s system, the underlying basis of it all is relatively simple and straightforward. So why haven’t the guards outside of the four aforementioned player succeeded? Ultimately it boils down to the fact that the system requires a specific kind of player- one who can generate their own offense, is fast, has a high IQ, and is good running the pick and roll.

Of all the point guards who have played in Chicago over the past three and a half years, only Rose, Robinson and Augustin fit all of these criterion based on the simple “eye test” and draft profiles found on Draft Express. It should be noted that there is no profile for Lucas III. Kirk Hinrich also doesn’t have a draft profile though it’s safe to assume his inability to thrive the way others have is due to him slowing down and becoming a worse shooter with age. All of the other point guards were missing one or more of the general characteristics.

Given that Chicago is likely to once again be financially strapped this offseason, it seems that DJ Augustin is quickly playing his way out of Chicago like Lucas III and Robinson did before him. However, it remains to be seen if teams will want to take a chance on offering a multi-year, multimillion dollar contract to Augustin. While he’s enjoyed a resurgence, teams are likely wary that the production is more so a result of Thibodeau’s system rather than what Augustin can do for any team. After all, both Lucas III and Robinson have seen their production regress to their pre-Bulls day following their breakout year in Chicago. Regardless of what happens, though, Bulls fans can take solace in knowing Thibodeau is their coach and that with him on the sidelines, the backup point guard position is almost guaranteed to be set.

Editors Note: Thank you to Randall J Sanders (@RandallJSanders) for taking the time to produce the lovely photoshops for this piece. Also thank you to Chris Herring (@HerringWSJ), Andrew Lynch (@AndrewLynch), and Jacob Frankel (@Jacob_Frankel) for helping me gather and make sense of some of the statistics used in the post.

The post Tom Thibodeau: The Point Guard Whisperer appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.

This post is not going to tell you anything, really, that you don’t already know. It’s been 9 games since Derrick Rose hurt his meniscus (10 games if you include the game against the Blazers in which Rose was injured). In those 9 games, the Bulls have been really, really bad.

How bad have the Bulls been? In the last 9 games, the Bulls have a Net Rating of -6.9 per 100 possessions. That’s quite awful. Over the course of an 82 game season, that sort of Net Rating would generally yield a roughly 25 win team. That’s bottom 3 or 4 teams in the league type stuff. The Bulls have had a couple of 20 point blowout wins over the Pistons and the Heat, which actually props their Net Rating up some. Granted, those wins and points scored still count, but this is all to say that in the 7 losses in their last 9 games since Rose was hurt, the Bulls have been absolutely brutal. They’ve lost by an average of 11.1 points per game. Now, granted, the Bulls had one truly awful blowout against the Clippers where they lost by 39 points immediately following the news of Derrick Rose’s season being over. Still, if you remove that game, the Bulls have lost the other six games by 6.5 points, on average, which is again bottom-feeder territory.

This is not to say that it’s all because Rose is hurt. The Bulls have, obviously, and as usual, suffered a bunch of very important injuries. Jimmy Butler’s been out for quite a while, Luol Deng has missed some time, and Joakim Noah has missed a few games and is clearly still not right when he does play. But losing Derrick Rose, even the diminished version of him that the Bulls had prior to his injury, has been a massive problem. The Bulls have had undoubtedly the crummiest point guard play in the league all year, but it’s been even worse in the wake of Rose’s injury. Marquis Teague has been statistically one of the worst players in the entire league who has received regular minutes and Kirk Hinrich just doesn’t have much to offer at this point in his career. Teague has looked a little better in the last couple games, and it’d be nice if he would get a shot at more minutes to develop a greater comfort level and, you know, improve. With Tom Thibodeau at the helm, though, that doesn’t seem to be in the cards. That’s likely why the Bulls went out and signed the recently waived, totally terrible D.J. Augustin. He’s been brutal for a couple of years now, and he was even worse to start this year, but the Bulls still thought he represented an improvement, however slight, on what they are currently rolling with. Ugh.

The Bulls will get better, when – if ?- Jimmy, Luol, and Joakim all get healthier, but for the time being, the Bulls are playing like one of the absolute worst teams in the NBA and it’s getting really, really hard to watch.

Statistical support from NBA.com/stats

The post Tire Fire: The Bulls since Rose’s injury stink to high heaven appeared first on Bulls By The Horns.