March 6, 2013

Bulls-Spurs Preview

Category: Game Previews — Tags: , , , , , – Braedan Ritter @ 10:12 am

San Antonio Spurs Status Check:
Record: 47-14
Division: 11-2
Conference: 26-10
Home Record: 24-3
Last 10 Games: 8-2
Streak: Won 2
Last game: 114-75 win over Detroit
PPG: 104.8 (4th)
Opponents PPG: 95.7 (7th)
Offensive Rating: 109.7 (6th)
Defensive Rating: 100.2 (3rd)
Pace: 94..4 (7th)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: .539 (2nd)
Turnover Percentage: .139 (14th)
Defensive Rebound Percentage: .745 (6th)
Offensive Rebound Percentage: .202 (30th)
Free Throws Per Field Goal Attempt: .211 (11th)
Opp. eFG%: .471 (3rd)
Opp. TO%: .140 (11th)
Opp. FT/FGA: .184 (4th)
Leading scorer: Tony Parker (21.0)

Stats from Basketball-Reference

San Antonio Injury Report:
Boris Diaw: questionable (strained lower back)
Gary Neal: probable (sore foot/Achilles)
Tony Parker: out (sprained ankle)

Overview:
The Bulls usually have an excuse when they lose this year. Playing without their best player, it’s been an uphill battle all season, often in games that they were overmatched. But that excuse didn’t fly when they fell to the Spurs on February 11.

It wasn’t just San Antonio’s point guard that was out of last month’s contest, as Tony Parker was sat to rest, but also Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili and Stephen Jackson.

The Bulls are talked about as a team that is always competitive, no matter who is available to play that night, but the Spurs are probably the best at it. With Parker, Ginobili, Duncan and Danny Green out against the Heat, San Antonio nearly pulled off an impressive upset. Gregg Popovic is never afraid to rest anyone, because he knows the others will pick up the slack.

Speaking of Green, the shooting guard was the highest rebounder for the Spurs in the February game against Chicago, with six boards. The entire Spurs team brought down just 26 rebounds in the game. Joakim Noah (15) and Luol Deng (11) combined to match that total themselves. Chicago had 17 offensive rebounds, to two for San Antonio, and 49 overall, a 23-rebound margin.

The Spurs offensive rebound rate was 5.9, while Chicago’s was 41.5. The Bulls had 20 second chance points, to just four against them, but they still lost.

That’s because Chicago turned it over 19 times, and gave up 29 points off those turnovers. The Spurs, who were led by starting point guard Nando de Colo, gave up had just eight points off of eight turnovers. Carlos Boozer, Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Nate Robinson each recorded three turnovers, while Chicago’s other starter, Rip Hamilton, coughed it up twice.

If the turnovers weren’t bad enough, the Bulls also allowed San Antonio to shoot 52 percent from the field and 50 percent (8-16) from deep (Chicago was 2-12 from three). Remember, this is the Spurs without some of their best offensive players. Kawhi Leonard scored a career-high 26 points on 11-18 shooting, while All-Star Luol Deng went 4-13 and finished with eleven points and eleven boards.

The Bulls face a more loaded team than the last time, but they will avoid Parker for the second time this year. The Spurs point guard, who was having a great season and had an amazing February, injured his ankle against the Kings and is expected to be out four months.

The Bulls grabbed a moral victory, in a year of them last time out against the Pacers, keeping it close. The reason I was pleased with the game was because of the bench. Tom Thibodeau has made it clear he doesn’t trust many of the reserves this season. Once you get past Marco Belinelli and Nate Robinson (who both often start) there’s Taj Gibson and Jimmy Butler. That has meant a lot of minutes for starters, especially Deng and Noah.

But, on the second night of a back-to-back, Thibs caved. He played Marquis Teague, Vladimir Radmanovic and Nazr Mohammed for most of the second quarter. Teague played the entire quarter, VladRad and Nazr each played more than ten minutes. Butler also played the entire quarter, while Belinelli played most. And you know what? All of these guys had positive plus/minuses. Noah and Deng didn’t even need to kill themselves to keep this one close.

Add the fact that they were playing against Indiana’s starters for much of the quarter and it’s only more impressive. Paul George (played 8:40 in the second quarter), David West (9:40), Roy Hibbert (4:04), Lance Stephenson (7:03) and George Hill (4:04) all recorded negative or neutral plus/minuses.

The Bulls bench could hold even with the Pacers, after Chicago’s starters had already fallen behind in the first quarter, but they couldn’t give the starters a break the night before? Noah, Deng and the rest of the starters were on the court to finish a game against the Nets, a game in which Chicago led by as many as 20 in the final frame. But Teague and VladRad and Daequan Cook couldn’t get off the bench.

“There’s no way they can hold this 20-point lead,” some said on Twitter. I disagreed, and thought playing Luol Deng the entire fourth quarter on the first night of a back-to-back was a bad idea. The fact that Lu shot 5-13 the next night did nothing to change my mind.

The point, if there is one, on this “I told you so” rant is not to say that the bench is good, or that they can do this every game. I do not have much faith in Teague as he’s young, or Nazr as he’s old, or VladRad as he’s horrible at basketball. But they can give the starters a rest. They won’t win the Bulls many games, but that doesn’t mean they’ll lose them every game they enter.

If you have any doubt, look at the Indiana game. Or look across to the other team tonight and see what a bench can do when it’s trusted.

February 11, 2013

Spurs-Bulls Preview

Category: Game Previews — Tags: , , , – Braedan Ritter @ 3:23 pm

Update: Tim Duncan, Manu Ginobili, Tony Parker and Stephen Jackson are all out tonight for San Antonio. Joakim Noah is in the starting line-up for Chicago.

San Antonio Status Check:
Record: 40-12
Division: 11-2
Conference: 22-8
Road Record: 18-10
Last 10 Games: 9-1
Streak: Won 1
Last game: 111-89 win over Brooklyn
PPG: 104.1 (4th)
Opponents PPG: 95.9 (9th)
Offensive Rating: 109.7 (5th)
Defensive Rating: 100.8 (3rd)
Pace: 94.2 (6th)
Effective Field Goal Percentage: .541 (2nd)
Turnover Percentage: .140 (17th)
Defensive Rebound Percentage: .748 (3rd)
Offensive Rebound Percentage: .204 (30th)
Free Throws Per Field Goal Attempt: .202 (19th)
Opp. eFG%: .477 (4th)
Opp. TO%: .139 (12th)
Opp. FT/FGA: .179 (3rd)
Leading scorer: Tony Parker (20.7)

Stats from Basketball-Reference

San Antonio Injury Report:
Tim Duncan: doubtful (sprained knee/sprained ankle)
Manu Ginobili: doubtful (hamstring)

Overview:
The Bulls go from one of the hottest teams in the NBA to the struggling Jazz to…one of the hottest teams in the NBA. The Spurs have lost just twice in the past month. Chicago lost twice last week. San Antonio, just like Chicago, is going through some injury issues though.

Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are doubtful for tonight, and may be out past the All Star break for the Spurs, according to some reports.

“It’s just about their health,” Gregg Popovich said. “We need to have those guys healthy and energetic at the end of the year. Things work a whole lot better with them than without them. With [Tim's] knee and Manu’s hamstring, I’m not gonna take any chances. If I err, it’s going to be on the side of caution.”

Popovich is arguably (and in my opinion is) the best coach in the NBA. It’s interesting what his opinion and mindset is compared to Tom Thibodeau’s, another great coach. Pop is of the belief that getting to the playoffs healthy is more important than winning every regular season game. Thibs is the exact opposite. Pop has been a head coach longer and has also won a bunch of championships.

Through Thibs’ reign, the Bulls have had multiple guys play through injuries. That isn’t all Thibs’ fault, as the popular hashtag #FredClearedHim shows, but the mindsets are no doubt opposite. Pop couldn’t care about a one seed; he knows health is the most important thing. Thibs wants to win every single game, for better or worse. That’s why Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili are sitting and Joakim Noah is playing. Jo may miss on the All Star game, but he is making that plantar worse playing both games in a back-to-back.

Noah played 34 minutes against Utah on Saturday night, struggling through every one of them. He finished with a double-double (12 points, eleven rebobunds), but didn’t shoot well (3-8). It’s clear he isn’t fully healthy, and it’s questionable whether he’s doing more damage than good right now. I find it hard to believe Jo would be back right now if the Bulls still had Omer Asik. Or any able-bodied center for that matter.

Jo—and everyone else on the Bulls—also got dominated by Al Jefferson. Utah’s center scored 32 points on 15-22 shooting and added 13 boards, two blocks and two steals. Paul Millsap hurt the Bulls too (21 points, 8-14 FG), but Chicago did a good job stopping everyone else.

Randy Foye was the next highest scorer, with 14 points, but shot 4-11. Marvin Williams scored just three points and Jamaal Tinsley seemed afraid to shoot, and thus ended up scoreless.

One of the keys was that the Bulls made 16 of their 18 free throws, while Utah went 11-17. Another was that they were finally able to play their high paid power forward in the fourth. Thibs trusted Carlos Boozer, and it paid off, as Boozington scored 11 of his 19 points in the final quarter.

Sidenote: Jimmy Butler had a bummer of a game, logging 13 minutes and no other stats except a missed shot. Hopefully this was just a fluke in Jimmy’s young, promising career.

San Antonio, short-handed and all, pulled away from Brooklyn in the second half, outscoring the Nets 60-29 in the third and fourth. Tony Parker led the way for the Spurs, as usual, dropping 29 points and dishing eleven assists. The Spurs shot 58.9 percent from the field and 63.2 percent from deep. This was all without Tim Duncan and Manu Ginobili.

Parker is going to cause a big problem tonight, as Nate Robinson will have trouble staying in front of him. Kirk Hinrich is still out for the Bulls, which leaves just Nate and Marquis Teague. That’s a match-up I am dreading.

But one I do want to see is Jimmy Butler and Kawhi Leonard. Butler and Leonard are pretty similar, young guys that do everything for their team. They are both great rebounders, especially for their size, finish well at the rim, defend well and hustle. Leonard’s PER is 15.51. Jimmy’s is 15.31.