In a recent thread, zillaa made the following comment:
“As far as getting to the line more, anybody else kind of in awe of Rose’s ability to AVOID contact in the lane? A friend that was a Philly fan a few years back noticed tonight that Rose seems to resemble Iverson only without the falling to the floor part. Rose doesn’t seem to try to avoid contact, but when you get in the lane that often, how do you NOT get fouled?”
This is an interesting question that has come up on occasion since Rose entered the NBA, and it is worth attempting to answer.
Derrick Rose is a unique offensive player. His combination of quickness, strength, body control and creativity make him arguably the most dynamic and effective finisher around the basket of any guard in the history of the game. (If anyone can think of his equal, I’m all ears.)
When (not if) he beats his man, the question boils down to how well the defense helps. If there is only one defender present, Rose typically glides around, or elevates over him en route to two points. If more than one defender steps in, he often exercises the option of pulling up for one of his short, accurate floaters. But not always.
There are instances in which Rose will cradle the ball to his side as securely as any NFL running back might, drive into – and sometimes through – heavy traffic in the lane, and attempt to get to the rim. Those are, in particular, the plays that have left many fans scratching their heads in wonder at the relatively low number of free-throws awarded to Rose during his career to date.
So how does he not get fouled more often? To my mind, there are several contributing factors which combine to reveal the answer.
First, and most importantly, his sheer strength allows him to absorb many hits which would send virtually all other point guards sprawling to the floor. This is a double-edged sword, as while it can undoubtedly contribute to a referee’s (possibly incorrect) perception that no foul was committed, it also allows Rose to get off decent shots which would otherwise be nearly impossible to make.
Rose’s remarkable body control allows him to avoid (serious) contact more effectively than most players who aggressively drive to the basket. This, too, reduces the instances of fouls, as last-line defenders must often rely on attempts to block his shot.
While I believe that this dynamic is now changing to a degree, Rose has also suffered from the combination of being a young player who wasn’t receiving the benefit of the doubt from refs, coupled with him being relatively quiet, rather than vocal, when calls were missed.
Interestingly, his natural tendency to be quiet and respectful may well benefit him greatly in the long run. Consider what Moses Malone, who played in 1,212 games without fouling out (yes, you read correctly), had to say about referees when interviewed by Slam Online:
“They got to call the game and you have to respect them. They make some bad calls, but never embarrass the referee. They got to do the work so once they make a call, let it be.”
Finally, I’d argue that the importance of Rose getting to the line more frequently is broadly overstated. I say that because on balance, his abilities outlined above produce plenty of baskets that, in aggregate, equal or exceed the points that more foul shots would produce. Having said that, I would like to see him develop and utilize an understanding of when, especially towards the end of tight games, the best and most conservative option would be to get to the line.
About the Author:
Tony C. grew up in Evanston, and cut his teeth on the exciting, early ’70′s Walker-Love-Sloan-Van Lier Bulls. As a pick-up player, he admits to having stuck too long with low-top shoes (Puma Baskets, for the detail oriented), but did belatedly make the switch when the sprained ankles became tedious. Tony’s professional life revolves mainly around buying, selling and managing Thoroughbred racehorses. While he now resides outside of Chicago, he remains an interested, enthusiastic, and at times critical Bulls fan.
In this age of Twitter, it comes as no surprise that dedicated basketball fans are inclined to immediately parse every game in detailed fashion. There’s nothing wrong with expressing opinions after a game, but along with such micro-analysis comes the unfortunate tendency to lose sight of the bigger picture.
The Bulls have now played three games, which, if the full NBA season were expressed in terms of a single 48-minute game, is equivalent to less than two minutes into the game. In other words, all of the hyperbolic contributions to various blogs and sports media should be taken with several grains of salt. So, with that in mind, let’s take a deep breath and attempt to put a little perspective around what we’ve seen thus far.
The Bulls are obviously a work in progress. There is every reason to believe that they will improve throughout the season, both before and after Boozer’s return. Bearing that simple point in mind, there is every reason to be very optimistic.
Another broad, though related point, is that it will take some time for Tom Thibodeau to become fully comfortable with his new head coaching role, and for the team to fully adapt to his very different style and concepts. Anyone who thinks that he is not a huge upgrade from VDN — even at this very early stage — simply isn’t paying attention. This is another reason to be very Bullish on the team’s prospects this season.
Luol Deng had a terrific pre-season, both internationally and with the Bulls, including showing signs that he had done some seriously effective work on his three-point shooting. His first game of the season was decent, and his second was disappointing. He broke out against the Blazers, and reminded everyone how valuable he can be at his best. When the Bulls begin to fire on all cylinders, and especially after Boozer returns, neither Deng nor Rose will be under great pressure to carry the offensive load themselves. That should, and almost certainly will make both of them even more effective.
Rose and Noah are obviously playing very well, and their recent exploits have been well-documented. I will add a couple of points, though. Rose is clearly the best point guard in the league at getting to the rim, and finishing around the basket. In fact, he may already be the best ever. His mid-range jumper has improved, and is more than adequate.
His three-point shooting, however, continues to be uneven, and I frankly don’t have high expectations for major improvement in that area during the season. I hope that I am proven wrong, but I do not want to see Rose shooting threes with regularity unless he improves his consistency. His defense has improved, and should continue to do so under Thibs. I also expect that his passing will improve, especially when Boozer begins to play, and Rose feels less pressure to score. Noah is, quite simply, outstanding, and anyone who thinks (or thought) that he should have been included in a ‘Melo trade should have their head examined.
I don’t agree with the yelps of criticism leveled at Bogans by some fans early on. He is a strong, solid defender, and has shown signs of being able to hit open threes. I love the way that he almost never leaves his feet while defending, and he is also very good at staying in front of his man. He is a solid role player. Brewer was obviously hampered by his hamstring injury, and is beginning to show signs of life. While limited offensively, I expect that he will prove useful on both ends of the floor, especially when the Bulls are running an up-tempo offense. Watson is useful at best, and, while I can’t get excited about him, he is clearly an upgrade over Pargo.
Korver will be very valuable, and has barely had a chance to begin to show his stuff. I’ve been pleasantly surprised by his adequate defense, and his near-constant movement on the offensive end is a big plus. Asik will improve throughout the year, and is already a valuable contributor. He is likely to become the biggest overachiever (relative to expectations) on the team. James Johnson has made impressive progress, though he still has a long way to go. He’s a terrific athlete, and is showing a willingness to be coached. He still needs to show more restraint at times (e.g. less ball handling, staying on his feet more on defense, etc.), but should continue to improve, and contribute on both ends.
Taj has, to my mind, been something of a disappointment. I was a big supporter of his last season, and he does bring a number of positive qualities to the table. However, he remains (too) foul prone, and there is no use in trying to deny that he has very poor hands. That’s not to say that he can’t be a useful backup to Boozer, but I was hoping to see more improvement in his areas of weakness (including free throws).
Barring any major injuries during the season, I believe that the Bulls will prove to be very dangerous in the playoffs. They have already shown signs of being able to compete with some of the better teams in the league, and, for some of the reasons touched on above, aren’t yet anywhere close to reaching their full potential.
About the author:
Tony C. grew up in Evanston, and cut his teeth on the exciting, early ’70′s Walker-Love-Sloan-Van Lier Bulls. As a pick-up player, he admits to having stuck too long with low-top shoes (Puma Baskets, for the detail oriented), but did belatedly make the switch when the sprained ankles became tedious. Tony’s professional life revolves mainly around buying, selling and managing Thoroughbred racehorses. While he now resides outside of Chicago, he remains an interested, enthusiastic, and at times critical Bulls fan.
That’s the pull quote for the article ESPN The Magazine’s Molly Knight wrote about Joakim Noah. For the article — which really is a must-read for Noah fans, by the way — Knight visited Jo’s house, was put through “a series of physical and emotional tests” by Noah himself (seriously), and finally got to do an interview with Chicago’s crazy-haired center.
By all accounts, Noah is a goofball and an amateur comedian. But that pull quote? He wasn’t kidding around. The dude is completely serious. He wants to take on everybody.
Noah left the University of Florida after helping lead the Gators to back-to-back NCAA titles. And remember: his stock was so high after the first national championship that he probably could have declared for the 2006 NBA draft and been chosen first or second. Instead, he made a pact with teammates Al Horford and Corey Brewer to return for a crack at another title.
And they did it.
Noah was a winner out of the box, but some people were scratching their heads when the Bulls selected him with the ninth overall pick of the 2007 NBA Draft. He didn’t really fit the team’s immediate needs (which were for a low post scorer or an athletic two guard who could defend and create shots). And let’s face it: He looked and acted a bit like a clown.
Said Chicago Sun-Times columnist Rick Morrissey: “When they picked him and how he showed up looking like he did, I thought, This is a joke,” recalls the . “He looked like a big goof. I thought he was soft, I thought he shoots like a little kid. My impression was that all this passion everyone talked about was a lot of energy signifying nothing.”
Noah’s rookie season was rough. He was late for some practices. He got into a verbal altercation with then-assistant coach Ron Adams, which earned him a one-game suspension from the team, which his teammates then voted to increase to two games. (A confused Noah said, “I didn’t know players could suspend each other.”) He got into a spat or two with then-teammate Ben Wallace. Worst of all, he just wasn’t playing all that well.
Last season — despite a nagging case of plantar fasciitis — Noah transformed into one of the best centers in the league…although anybody who watched his steal-and-dunk against the defending champion Celtics during the 2009 playoffs will tell you the transformation began before that. And now, advanced metrics tell us that, despite conventional wisdom, Noah’s energy and intangibles (not to mention very real basketball skills) are worth more than ‘Melo’s scoring if you think in terms of wins and losses.
And that’s what really matters, right?
Having Noah around is like a promise to Bulls fans for a wild and crazy ride. Let’s enjoy it.
Bulls Notes:
The Bulls have waived guards John Lucas III, Kyle Weaver, and forward Roger Powell, reducing their active roster to 13. According to John Jackson of the Chicago Sun-Times, Kyle Korver (ankle cyst) and Noah might play in tonight’s preseason finale against the Pacers at the United Center. If you’re a fan of lady pyramids, check out this commercialof Derrick Rose’s signature shoe, the Adidas AdiZero.
In yesterday’s print edition of the Chicago Sun-Times, former Bears offensive lineman Dan Jiggetts introduced the idea of a “Chicago Syndrome.” According to Jiggetts, many denizens of the Windy City “can’t believe one of our teams really got something right.”
In other words, Chicago fans are all doom and mostly gloom.
It’s true. By nature, Chicago fans always seem to be preparing for the worst. Which is kind of weird when you think about it. After all, in the past 25 years, the city has enjoyed a Super Bowl victory (and the ’85 Bears were one of the greatest teams in NFL history), six NBA titles (and Michael Jordan’s Bulls are considered among the greatest teams in NBA history), a World Series win (courtesy of the 2005 White Sox) and a hockey championship (thanks to the revival of the 2009-10 Blackhawks).
That’s a lot of winning. And those nine championships across the four major sports — including some true all-time teams — mark Chicago as one of the great sports cities in our country. Maybe even the world.
But dread is always right around the corner.
Maybe it’s the century’s worth of futility and suffering the Cubs have put us through. Maybe it’s the brutal winters. I don’t know. But whenever something bad happens, many Chicago fans will tell you with utter confidence that they saw it coming. That they knew this — whatever “this” may be — was going to happen.
To wit: Even though the Bears entered the game 4-1, there weren’t many people in the greater Chicagoland area who didn’t sort of expect something like Sunday’s home debacle against the Seattle Seachickens. While former Bears quaterback Kyle Orton is earning MVP talk in Denver, current Bear and former Bronco Jay Cutler — the guy who was finally going to give us a franchise QB — is getting beaten into oblivion: 23 sacks on the season, 15 in his last six quarters of play.
Would you blame Cutler for entering witness relocation? I wouldn’t. And hey, maybe he’ll be joining the Bears’ offensive line in hiding, because we sure haven’t seen much of them this season.
Baseball ended early in Chicago this year. Again. Thanks to the NHL’s hard salary cap, the 2010-11 Blackhawks barely resemble the 2009-10 team.
And the Bulls? They whiffed in their attempts to sign LeBron James, Dwyane Wade and/or Chris Bosh. Management recovered well enough, but then the team lost their biggest offseason acquisition to a broken hand — suffered in a freak home accident — before the guy had played a single preseason game. Carlos Boozer is out for what may be the team’s toughest stretch of the season. Two months? It might as well be an eternity.
Meanwhile, Ronnie Brewer (sore hamstring), C.J. Watson (strained left quadriceps), Taj Gibson (sore right heel) and now Kyle Korver (cyst in his left ankle) have all had ticky-tac injuries. The offense has been on-and-off. The shooting hasn’t been great. At times, rebounding has been an issue. Ditto for turnovers. Chemistry has been so-so.
And then there was last Saturday’s 38-point loss to the Magic where several Bulls players looked as dazed and confused as Jay Cutler. Maybe more so.
Is it time to hit the panic button? Some fans certainly appear to think so. Because of my status as an “expert” — I know, I know, try not to laugh — friends and co-workers at my Clark Kent job have been texting me or walking by my desk to ask what’s wrong with the Bulls. What’s wrong with the Bulls? They haven’t even played a regular season game yet! But some people around Chicago already believe the team is fundamentally flawed. Or, at the very least, that some unnamable thing is wrong with the them.
One co-worker told me: “They’re just destined to be a losing team, aren’t they?”
Losing team? Reality check: The Bulls are coming off two consecutive .500 seasons and two straight playoff appearances — the first of which, versus the Celtics in 2009, was one of the great first round series in league history. This despite various injuries, dubious coaching and a very real talent deficit.
It can be difficult to grasp the psychology of the Chicago area sports fan. Despite all the major titles and various non-championship playoff appearances, fans in the Windy City seem paranoid and forever on the verge of panic. But then again, maybe that’s simply the lot of the sports fan, where winning isn’t the most important thing…it’s the only thing.
The Bulls have nine new players and a new coaching staff. And yes, there have been some injuries, both major and minor. They aren’t what they can and will be. This is a process.
Said coach Tom Thibodeau: “Winning brings team chemistry. For the most part, we have high character and good workers on this team. I expect our chemistry to be very good. We’re still a work in progress. Each day, we’re getting better. We’ve looked at different combinations. We have an idea about the starting lineup. When we go to the bench, what combinations work best? We’re still figuring that out.”
Fair enough. Sadly, sports fans have little patience for the figuring out part. We want results. And we want them now, if not five minutes ago. (Or, in the Cubs’ case, 100 or so years ago.) And c’mon, coach. That loss to the Magic was pretty humbling.
Said Thibodeau: “You take every game and you try to analyze why you won or why you loss and then you try to take the necessary steps to improve. I thought it was a great game for us. The intensity that Orlando brings is good for your team to face.”
That which doesn’t destroy you only makes you stronger?
Added Thibs: “To be honest, I was really disappointed with the result of that game, but I haven’t been with the effort of our guys in practice. We have to continue to work. It was a great test for us to measure ourselves against an elite team and you’re facing a back-to-back. Back-to-backs are a big part of the NBA — we have 23 of them — so we know we have a long way to go in facing those challenges.”
But do the players feel the same way? I mean, seriously, the team rolled over and played dead in Orlando.
Said Taj Gibson: “At the end of the day, every team says they want to win a championship, and guys on this team really want to win a championship and contend and go against the top teams. Getting beat like that was embarrassing. Guys said, ‘Even if we had a back-to-back, there are no excuses. Even if it’s the preseason, we have to come out and get better.’”
I want to believe Thibs and Taj. I really do. But when I think about all those back-to-backs, and then when I consider how the team will be facing the November circus road trip without Carlos Boozer, I break out in a Chicago Syndrome fever. Man, I wish there was a vaccine for this thing.
All I can do — all any Bulls fan can do — is take a deep breath and try to relax. There are two more preseason games that can be used for the working out of kinks. Boozer should be back by December. Rose and Noah will hold things together until then. I believe that.
Bronze statue in the United Center? Soon to be check.
According to Adam Fluck of Bulls.com: “The Chicago Bulls have plans to unveil a bronze statue of Hall of Famer Scottie Pippen that will be displayed permanently in the United Center at some point towards the end of the 2010-11 season. … The statue will be crafted by Omri and Julie Rotblatt-Amrany of Highland Park, Ill., who also sculpted the famous Michael Jordan statue which was unveiled in January 1994 in conjunction with Jordan’s No. 23 jersey retirement.”
Said Pippen: “Words really can’t express my feelings. It’s an unbelievable honor and truly amazing. It’s something you dream of as a kid growing up, but you can never foresee those childhood fantasies becoming reality. You see statues of individuals who have done great things and made their mark on history, but as a basketball player, you never really think about arriving at this point. It’s an amazing honor for the Chicago Bulls to do this for me.
“I’m more excited now when I look back at what we were able to accomplish. My playing years went by so fast, but I’m happy I was able to make my mark on the game. It’s hard to take a deep breath and look back on it all. At the same time, you are always trying to get to the next level and accomplish something new. I’m at a point now where I can really appreciate what I did throughout my career. To enjoy those things and reap some of the benefits now is very special to experience.”
As honors go, this one is about as well-deserved as they get.
According to Kelly Dwyer of Yahoo!’s Ball Don’t Lie, Luol Deng is the eight-best small forward in the NBA, behind LeBron James, Kevin Durant, Carmelo Anthony, Gerald Wallace, Andre Iguodala, Danny Granger and Paul Pierce.
Here’s Dwyer’s commentary: “After a year or two in the wilderness, Luol finally got his wits about him in 2009-10, averaging 17.6 points and 7.3 rebounds alongside his typically sound defense. Deng also chipped in about a steal and block per game, and this is important: Luol came in at under two turnovers a game for the sixth time in a six-year career. I understand that his midrange, rarely dribbling game doesn’t see him taking many chances, but to be able to field a solid-scoring forward for nearly 38 minutes a game and see him turn the ball over just 1.9 times per? Good stuff.”
That seems fair. Now let’s take a quick peek at the comparitive 2010-11 salaries of Dwyer’s top eight SFs (from ShamSports): LeBron ($14,500,000), Durant ($6,053,663 from his rookie contract but jumping to $13,603,750 in 2011-12), ‘Melo ($17,149,243), Wallace ($10,500,000), Iggy ($12,345,250), Granger ($10,973,202), Pierce ($13,876,321) and Deng ($11,345,000).
This biggest knock against Deng is his supposedly cap-killing contract. And yet based on Dwyer’s rankings, Deng’s pay is roughly commensurate with his standing among the league’s elite small forwards.
This — in addition to all the recent talk about potentially trying to flip Deng (and other assets) for ‘Melo — got me to wondering how Luol ranks statistically compared to the league’s other small forwards.
Deng versus the Average Small Forward:
According to Hoopdata, the average NBA small forward gives his team 9.2 PPG, 3.6 RPG (2.7 DR and 0.8 OR), 1.4 APG, 0.7 SPG and 0.4 BPG while shooting 44.9% from the field, 34.9% from downtown and 78.6% from the line (on 2.2 FTA).
Last season, Deng averaged 17.6 PPG, 7.3 RPG (5.4 DR and 1.9 OR), 2.0 APG, 0.9 SPG, 0.9 and 0.9 BPG while shooting 46.6% from the field, 38.6% from beyond the arc and 76.4% from the line (on 4.7 FTA).
At a glance, it’s clear that Deng is solidly above average. But let’s delve further. The following comparitive rankings also come from Hoopdata. I have compared Deng to other “full time” small forwards — that is, SFs who played 40+ games and 30+ MPG — across several categories.
Basic:
Deng ranked 4th in RPG, 4th in Offensive RPG, 4th in Defensive RPG, 4th in BPG, 8th in FTA, 8th in FG%, 9th in PPG and 10th in 3P%.
Defense / Rebounding:
Deng ranked 4th in Offensive Rebounding Rate, 5th in Total Rebounding Rate, 5th in Charges Drawn, 6th in Defensive Rebounding Rate and 7th in Defensive Plays (Steals + Blocks + Charges Drawn).
Shooting / Scoring:
Despite ranking 8th in FG% and 10th in 3P%, Deng ranked only 13th in FT%, 14th in True Shooting Percentage and 16th in Effective Field Goal Percentage. He ranked 8th in Field Goals Assisted, but that means he didn’t really create his own shots. He was also 9th in Times Blocked.
Believe it or not, Deng ranked 8th in And1s (times scoring a basket while also drawing a shooting foul) and 8th in And1% (And1s / Field Goals Attempted). He ranked 9th in Free Throw Rate.
Shot Locations:
Deng ranked 9th in FG% at the rim (61.2), 4th inside 10 feet (47.3), 9th from 10-15 feet (39.4), 6th from 16-23 feet (40.0).
He ranked 10th in attempts at the rim (4.3), 10th inside 10 feet (1.3), 10th from 10-15 feet (0.9), 3rd from 16-23 feet (6.7) and 18th from three-point range. So as we already knew, Luol “specializes” in chucking from 16-23 feet…the least efficient shot in basketball.
Advanced:
Deng ranked 4th in Win Shares, 6th in NBA Efficiency Rating, 7th in Adjusted Win Shares, 8th in Player Efficiency Rating and 8th in Adjusted Player Efficiency Rating.
Random:
Deng ranked 4th in Double-Doubles (13), behind only Gerald Wallace (33), LeBron James (31) and Kevin Durant (25). He had two more Double-Doubles than Carmelo Anthony.
Final thoughts:
Note all the top 10 and even top five rankings. These seem to synch up pretty well with Dwyer’s assessment. The reality — and Bulls fans would do well to realize this — is that Luol Deng is one of the best small forwards in the league. Analysis and statistics bear this out. There’s no denying it.
Are there gaps in his game? Sure. Deng takes too many long-range, contested two-pointers and doesn’t do much to create shots for his teammates. He’s also had his share of injury problems: Other than the 2006-2007 season — during which he appeared in all 82 regular season games and 10 playoff games — Deng has missed 21, 4, 19, 33 and 12 games.
But when he’s healthy, Deng provides consistent and solid (if not spectacular) production. If you parse the numbers and really examine what Luol brings to the team, it becomes strikingly obvious that he’s not the wildly overpaid bust that many people think he is. His status among the top 10 small forwards is well-deserved.
1. Will Derrick Rose ascend to superstardom?
Due to a preseason ankle injury, Rose got off to a slow start last season. But if you check out his splits, you can see the month-by-month progression that earned him a spot on the Eastern Conference All-Star Team. This progression was punctuated by a blistering April in which Derrick averaged 25.4 PPG, 7.0 APG and 4.1 RPG while shooting 54 percent from the field and leading the Bulls into the playoffs.
By all accounts, Rose has spent this summer doing and saying all the right things. He’s been working on both his defense and his outside shooting while proclaiming his loyalty to Chicago, stating his desire to lead the Bulls to glory, and accepting any and all challenges his team will be facing in the coming season (coughMiamiHeatcough).
I can see Rose’s development accelerating this season, thanks to his innate desire, improved coaching and better teammates. Individually, Rose needs to become a solid three-point threat (which he’s working on), a better defender (which new coach Tom Thibodeau should help with) and a more consistent floor leader (which will be aided by dishing to guys like Carlos Boozer and Kyle Korver). And, frankly, he needs to earn more than 4.3 free throws per game and hit better than 76 percent from the line.
I believe in Derrick. I think he’ll do it.
2. Will Carlos Boozer come through?
Boozer is the Bulls’ most significant free agent acquisition since they signed Ben Wallace in July of 2006. But trust me, the Bulls can expect much more out of Carlos than Big Ben ever gave them. Boozer is a dominant scorer and rebounder, and he gives the Bulls their first true inside scoring threat since Elton Brand.
However, there are concerns, such as Boozer’s health (which has been questionable at times), his size (which is small-ish for a power forward) and his defense (which is suspect). What’s more, some people even question his ability to score down low because, by the numbers, that’s not where he scores most of his points.
But while Boozer doesn’t spend all his time in the post, the important thing is he canscore from there. He also has an excellent midrange game and is a fantastic pick-and-roll player, which means he and Rose should be a perfect fit.
Boozer’s presence will make the Bulls much better.
3. Will Joakim Noah develop into an All-Star?
Last season, Noah ranked in the top 10 in Rebounds Per Game (11.0), Defensive Rebounds Per Game (7.6), Offensive Rebounds Per Game (3.4), Rebounding Rate (20.4) and Defensive Rebounding Rate (12.9) and Defensive Rating (101.0).
But wait, there’s more. Despite being limited to only 64 games due to plantar fasciitis, Noah had 28 double-doubles last season. That’s more than Kevin Durant, Lamar Odom, LaMarcus Aldridge, David West, Andrew Bynum and Dirk Nowitzki.
Let’s face it, Noah has surprised a lot of people with how much he’s improved since his rookie season. But it shouldn’t be surprising. Noah has always been a winner, and winner’s have a way of rising to the top.
Assuming he can stay healthy, there’s no reason he can provide All-Star caliber play in the pivot. Last season’s per 36 minute stats (12.8 PPG, 13.2 RPG, 1.9 BPG) and Player Efficiency Rating (17.9) were signs of a player on the rise. Assuming Jo’s injury problems are behind him, the sky really is the limit.
4. Will the three-point shooting improve?
Last season, the Bulls ranked 29th in three-point attempts and 28th in three-point percentage. The only team that attempted fewer threes was the Memphis Grizzlies and the only teams that shot worse were the New Jersey Nets and Detroit Pistons. Note that those three teams missed the playoffs, and the Nets were one of the worst teams in league history.
The Bulls addressed the situation by acquiring Kyle Korver, who set a league record for three-point percentage last season (53.6), and C.J. Watson, who has canned 35 percent of his treys in his three seasons (including 40 percent of them in 2008-09). Then too, Keith Bogans has canned a few open triples during his career and Rose has been working on his long-distance shooting all summer.
I don’t think three-point shooting will be an issue this season.
4. Will new coach Tom Thibodeau improve the defense?
During the 2009-10 campaign, the Bulls ranked 4th in Opponents Field Goal Percentage (.442), 7th in Opponents Effective Field Goal Percentage (.484), 9th in Opponents Free Throws Per Field Goal Attempt (.212) and 11th in Defensive Rating (105.3). And frankly, they were even better before Noah was slowed and then sidelines by plantar fasciitis.
Now enter Thibodeau, who has served as an assistant with seven teams over 18 NBA seasons, finishing in the top-10 defensively 15 times. Which mean if everybody stays healthy, the Bulls could be one of the best defensive units in the league this season.
5. More importantly, will Thibs improve the offense?
Last season, the Bulls ranked 23rd in FGP (.451), 24th in PPG (97.5), 27th in Offensive Rating (103.5) and 28th in Effective Field Goal Percentage (.477). Simply put, they were one of the worst offensive teams in the league.
Can Thibodeau, who is known for defense rather than offense, change that? Well, according the K.C. Johnson of the Chicago Tribune: “Thibodeau wowed [GM Gar] Forman and executive vice president John Paxson during an interview in Los Angeles on the eve of Game 1 of the Finals with creative offensive ideas centered on drive-and-kick and pick-and-roll schemes.”
Said Forman: “He’s got a great reputation around the league. Obviously, most of it is for his defensive knowledge and defensive credentials. … We really went back off a number of people he’s worked with over the years, and consistently, they said he’s really got a terrific offensive mind. He’s got creative ideas offensively and maybe wasn’t asked to do that as much in Boston. But he was very, very capable offensively. When we met with him, we asked a lot of questions as far as that was concerned and we liked what we heard.”
I hope all that is true. And anyway, Thibs is going to have more weapons than any Bulls coach since Phil Jackson. That should help.
The Bulls still have about $3 million to spend and one more roster spot to fill.
Rumor had it the team was taking long, hard looks at both Eddie House and Roger Mason. Unfortunately, House was signed by the Evil Empire Miami Heat and Mason has been picked up by the New York Knicks. Who does that leave?
Keith Bogans? Gak.
Tracy McGrady? Double gak.
I’d rather see the Bulls bring back Flip Murray than sign either of those guys. In fact, I’d rather see the entire team develop incurable skin fungus than sign “Knee-Mac.” I’m just sayin’.
Perhaps it’s important to get a little insight into what management is looking for. In an appearance on “The Waddle & Silvy Show” on ESPN 1000, Bulls coach Tom Thibodeau said: “…we feel we have to add more shooting. So right now, that’s what we’re putting a premium on.”
More shooting, eh? As I’ve mentioned before, McGrady is a career 33.7 percent three-point shooter. So even if he didn’t need a really good sports psychologist, I doubt he really fits that particular bill.
You know, the Portland Trail Blazers are still dangling Rudy Fernandez out there. And it appears he wants to come East. Conference-wise, that is.
According to Ben Q. Rock of SB Nation Chicago, Madrid-based sportswriter Francisco Rabadan tweeted the following (translated from Spanish by Mr. Rock): “I spoke with Rudy this morning. He doesn’t know anything about his possible trade to Chicago, but he gave me a clue: ‘the East seems very attractive to me.’”
Could the Bulls get him? I don’t know. If they could secure the rights to Fernandez for James Johnson and a first round draft pick, I’d give Gar Forman a big old thumbs up. But that’s about the only deal that a) both sides might reasonably agree on and b) I would be okay with. (I definitely wouldn’t be happy with giving up Taj Gibson for Rudy.)
A better question might be: Would Rudy be a good fit for the Bulls?
Well, if the team wants a shooter, they’d be getting one. During his rookie season (2008-09), Fernandez shot 39 percent from beyond the arc. During the final eight games of that campaign, he went 20-for-39 (50.9 percent).
Last season, his three-point percentage dropped to a shade under 37 percent as he struggled to adjust to his role on the team and a slight decline in his minutes per game. But he still had hot stretches, like a six-game span in early March when he went 5-for-10, 4-for-4, 1-for-3, 4-for-6, 3-for-5 and 3-for-5.
Look, the kid can shoot the three. That’s not the problem.
One potential issue is his inaccuracy from inside the arc. According to Hoopdata, Rudy shot 26.9 percent from 10-15 feet and 25.0 percent from 16-23 feet during the 2009-10 season. Those numbers weren’t much better in 2008-09: 23.0 and 29.0 percent, respectively.
Yikes. Rudy has a midrange game that would make Tyrus Thomas cringe. Not a good sign.
Shooting aside, Fernandez is pretty decent off the ball. According to ESPN’s John Hollinger: “Fernandez is outstanding moving without the ball in general, reminiscent of a Reggie Miller or Richard Hamilton, and he draws a lot of fouls this way. Off the catch, he primarily looks to shoot immediately. He’ll pass and cut if the shot isn’t there, but every so often he’ll get a wild hair and try a daring, creative and impossible pass that either ends up in Row 17 or starts a 3-on-1 the other way.”
Hmm. That “wild hair” Hollinger mentioned worries me. So does the fact that he became unhappy so quickly in Portland. Fernandez was on a winning team playing alongside character guys like Brandon Roy. That’s not exactly the Ninth Level of Hell.
I mean, would things be much different for Fernandez on the Bulls? Look at Chicago’s roster: Derrick Rose, C.J. Watson, Ronnie Brewer, Kyle Korver, Luol Deng, James Johnson, Carlos Boozer, Taj Gibson, Joakim Noah, Kurt Thomas and Omer Asik.
That’s a pretty deep team. How many minutes would Fernandez get in a backcourt that includes Rose, Watson, Brewer and (probably at times) Korver? Last season, Rudy became “disgruntled” playing 23 minutes a game (down from 25 the previous season). How many minutes would he see on the Bulls?
I can’t see him earning many more than he got with the Blazers. Especially considering his notorious weakness on the defensive end. Here’s what Hollinger had to say about Rudy’s D going into the 2009-10 season: “Defensively, Fernandez’s lack of strength means the Blazers have to monitor his matchups carefully. … Fernandez does fine as long as he covers quick guys or non-scorers, but big wings steamroll him.”
To underscore that assessment, Fernandez compiled a Defensive Rating of 107 during the regular season and a staggering 123 during the playoffs. By the way, those numbers represent the number of points he was giving up per 100 possessions.
I’m not sure a defensive-minded coach like Thibodeau would be cool with that.
Look, Rudy is a wicked athlete who can drill threes and generate highlight reel-type plays. However, he isn’t a great ball handler, tends not to make aggressive moves toward the basket, has no midrange game and gets stuck in “shoot first” mode. What’s more, he just soured in only two years of being in a great system.
Still, Rudy has the proven skills (three-point shooting mostly) and potential (which seems limited only by his mind) to justify ditching Johnson and giving up a draft pick. But anything more than that? I don’t think so.
Could this man play alongside Derrick Rose? Absolutely.
The question:
Could Dwyane Wade and Derrick Rose play well together?
Background:
Let me make one thing clear up front: I’m not saying Dwyane Wade is coming to Chicago. There’s simply no way to know how this summer’s free agent bonanza is going to turn out. However, until he either re-signs with the Miami Heat or signs with another team, it remains a viable possibility. And hey, there are longer shots than D-Wade coming back to his home town, right?
Now, when I’m chatting on ESPN’s Daily Dime Live, the question I’m asked most often is: Which free agent(s) would I most like to see the Bulls sign this summer. My first two picks are always Dwyane Wade and Chris Bosh, usually in that order. The response from most DDL chatters is usually something along the lines of: “Wade could never play alongside Derrick Rose. They both need the ball in their hands.”
Unless David Stern makes some radical rule changes during the offseason, we have to assume that NBA teams will still be allowed only one basketball per possession. So two guys who are always holding onto the rock couldn’t possibly work in tandem…could they?
Main argument:
The reality is this: You never really know until you actually see player combinations in action. Therefore, a better question is: Are Wade and Rose capable of playing together. Are the necessary skills and mindset there for both of these talented young men?
Personally, I think they are.
I’ve watched every Bulls game this season, and I’m here to tell you that Rose moves really well without the basketball. Want proof? I’ve got some:
Wade has been something of a one-man show in Miami, but that’s always been more out of necessity than nature. He’s proven he can play off the ball in All-Star Games and, more notably, while playing for the USA Men’s Basketball Team in the 2008 Olympics. In fact, check out this little nugget that appeared in the Chicago Tribune earlier this season:
“An Eastern Conference executive believes that Dwyane Wade would excel alongside Derrick Rose in Chicago. ‘I’ve heard some people say both need the ball in their hands too much to be effective,’ the executive told the Chicago Tribune. ‘I don’t see that as an issue at all. Wade doesn’t get credit for how well he moves without the ball. And great players always find a way to make it work.’”
The same is true of Rose. If you check the numbers, you’ll notice Rose’s Usage Percentage was five points lower last season when he was playing alongside Ben Gordon. You’ll also notice that Derrick’s presence wasn’t exactly crimping Gordon’s style: In 2008-09, Ben had his second-best scoring season (20.4 PPG, 45% from the field, 41% in threes) while setting career-highs in Offensive Rating (112 points per 100 possessions), True Shooting Percentage (.573) and Effective Field Goal Percentage (.521).
So yeah, I think Rose can play alongside another big-time scorer who needs his touches.
Not only that, Derrick would benefit from having another scorer/playmaker around who could take the pressure off him to do all the creating. And Wade — who regularly finishes in the top 10 in turnovers – might appreciate turning over ball-handling duties to a capable teammate.
It’s no secret that Miami has been searching for a servicable point guard since Wade’s second season. And I mean desperately searching. Here’s a list of the point guards the Heat have used since the 2004-05 campaign: Damon Jones, Keyon Dooling, Jason Williams, Gary Payton, Smush Parker, Chris Quinn, Marcus Banks, Blake Ahern, Mario Chalmers, Carlos Arroyo, and Rafer Alston.
You don’t think D-Wade would like a little stability from that position?
Conclusion:
Rose and Wade need each other. Well, okay, maybe “need” is a strong word. But as a dynamic backcourt duo, they could greatly benefit from playing together. Both are fast, strong and almost unreasonable athletic. They’re both good teammates and willing passers. They can both thrive in halfcourt sets or in transition. Each man can create his own shot in one-on-one situations or move effectively without the ball. Rose needs another scorer to ease his burden as the initiator of Chicago’s offense, and Wade could use a point guard so he won’t have to keep doing absolutely everything for his team.
I’m telling you, it could work. It may never happen, but it could work.
In case you haven’t heard, Scottie Pippen — along with Karl Malone, Lakers owner Jerry Buss, Bob Hurley Sr., Cynthia Cooper, Dennis Johnson, Gus Johnson, and Maciel “Ubiratan” Pereira as well as the 1960 and 1992 U.S. Olympic teams — was selected for the Naismith Memorial Basketball Hall of Fame’s class of 2010.
Pippen’s selection wasn’t simply well-deserved, it was a no-brainer. After all, Scottie was the second-best player on six NBA championship teams over an eight-year period. And the best player on those teams happened to be the greatest ever. So although Pippen was and probably always will be best-known for playing second fiddle to Michael Jordan…that was still a pretty mean fiddle.
On the subject, it’s fitting that Pippen will become a Hall of Famer exactly one year after Jordan. Scottie spent most of his career as the Robin to Michael’s Batman. Not by choice. That was decided by fate, not to mention fans and a press corps that never fully appreciated what Pippen meant to the Chicago Bulls.
For sure, MJ was the foundation on which those six titles were built. But Scottie was like championship spackle. He filled all the holes. Scoring, rebounding, passing and especially defense. Pippen spent a full decade on the NBA All-Defensive First or Second Teams. But those are just numbers. The reality is, he was without question one of the best defensive players of his generation and probably of all-time.
Guarding Kevin McHale — who himself spent 12 seasons as Larry Bird’s second-in-command — was once described by then-Piston John Salley as “being in the man’s [torture] chamber.” Well, being defended by Scottie was like being in Pippen’s chamber. Just ask Magic Johnson, who got hounded almost to the point of distraction by Pippen in the 1991 NBA Finals. You could also ask Mark Jackson, who received 94 feet of pain from Scottie in the 1998 Eastern Conference Finals. When Pippen guarded you, it was like being locked in shackles, covered in crawling insects, and then set on fire.
In a word: Terrible.
Whenever Scottie comes up during conversation with my basketball buddies, I almost always harken back to one of my all-time favorite Chicago teams: The Pippen-led 1993-94 squad. That was the first year of Jordan’s first retirement, when Michael left the Bulls to play baseball (and, really, to escape the constant grind of pursuing NBA championships). Finally, Scottie got a chance to be the Batman.
All Pippen did was set career-highs in scoring (22.0 PPG), rebounding (8.7) and steals (2.9), not to mention Player Efficiency Rating (23.2). He also finished third (behind Hakeem Olajuwon and David Robinson) in MVP voting. But discussing stats, as impressive as they may seem, kind of undersells Pippen. He was a leader. He pumped up his teammates. Jordan led mostly by example and fear. But Bulls players, when they needed a pep talk or a little inspiration, went to Scottie. No less an expert than Phil Jackson said so.
At any rate, Scottie pushed the 1993-94 Bulls — who were forced to plug Pete Myers into the gaping hole left by Jordan — to 55 wins. That was only two fewer wins than the 1992-93 team, which featured an in-his-prime MJ and won a third straight championship. Think about that. The Bulls replaced Jordan with freaking Pete Myers and only dropped two more games. Who would have thought that was even possible?
Those 55 wins weren’t all Scottie. Due credit must be given to then-coach Phil Jackson and his amazing system, not to mention other players (most notably Horace Grant, B.J. Armstrong and Toni Kukoc) picking up their games. But Pippen was the foundation of that team, and he proved more than up to the task.
That squad could have won the title. I’m being completely serious. It could have happened. As it was, the 1993-94 Bulls lost a hard-fought seven-game series to the New York Knicks in the Eastern Conference Semifinals. (Don’t even get me started about the officiating in that series, especially Game 5. I’m serious. Don’t get me started.) The Knicks went on lose their own hard-fought seven game series to the Houston Rockets in the 1994 Finals — thanks in no small part to an epic 2-for-18 shooting meltdown by John Starks — so it’s not a huge stretch to imagine the Bulls making it that far and prevailing.
Maybe they would have lost to the Rockets too. After all, Olajuwon destroyed Patrick Ewing in those Finals. What do you suppose he would have done to Chicago’s three-headed center monster of Bill Cartwright, Bill Wennington and Luc Longley? We’ll never know, but I’m guessing it would have been ugly.
That said, the 1993-94 Rockets didn’t have anybody who was going to stop Scottie Pippen. So…who knows? In the final analysis, the 1993-94 Bulls stand as a glowing example that Jordan — as great as he was — didn’t do it alone. A lot of people tend to overlook it, but Scottie almost led the Bulls to their fourth straight title without MJ. So, like I said, Pippen’s spot in the Hall of Fame is a no-brainer.
At any rate, I’m happy for Pip. He’s certainly earned a time to shine.
Note: Okay, it’s hard to bring up the 1993-94 Bulls and their playoff series against the Knicks without mentioning how Scottie refused to play the final 1.8 seconds of Game 3 because Jackson didn’t write up the game-winning play for him. That incident capped off a season in which Pippen spent way too much time complaining about his salary and even made a rude hand gesture to Bulls fans for booing him. (Pip then compounded that last faux pas by claiming fans were booing him because he was black.)
Living in Jordan’s shadow — and being underpaid in part because of that and in part because Jerry Reinsdorf is frighteningly cheap — bothered Pippen a lot. And all too often his mini-rebellions made him look like a bratty malcontent. Which, at times, he was. But, in my opinion, those things shouldn’t diminish his contributions to the Bulls. After all, Jordan punched out Steve Kerr in practice. Oh, MJ also punched out Will Perdue. Since indicents like that haven’t hurt Michael’s legacy, then Pippen’s occasional outburts shouldn’t tarnish his.
